runnersconnect.net/running-...
This IS a bit "difficult" to work through - but it does all make sense to me. For me personally - taking into account my personal parameters, it predicts I could "hit the wall" in around 17 miles. 
How to Calculate and Predict When You’ll Hit... - Bridge to 10K
How to Calculate and Predict When You’ll Hit the Wall During a Marathon
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Bazza1234
Graduate10
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