Could someone explain please? - Genuine question - LUPUS UK

LUPUS UK

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Could someone explain please? - Genuine question

Froggie70 profile image

Hi all I know that there are lovely people on this site that have a medical background and wondering if they could explain something for me. Just watching tonight’s press conference (I know I shouldn’t) and Patrick Valance said that of the number of people admitted to hospital with Covid, 60% had been double vaccinated. Can that be right? It seems an awfully high percentage (played it back twice on iPlayer as I was sure he must have said 16% but it was definitely 60%). Would appreciate your thoughts as I’m beginning to think I’ll never get out. Thank you🤗🤗.

49 Replies

I think it is because there aren't that many people having to be admitted - RELATIVELY speaking given the total numbers. Many people are a lot less sick. And he was probably trying to get through to people that being vaccinated is NOT a magic get out of jail card. It never was - but the gubmint didn't grasp that from the start and never emphasised it so people heard what they wanted to hear and decided "freedom" day means everyone must be safe. I've tried so hard to explain in our forum - people think I am a misery telling them it still isn't really safe.

The main problem in the UK at present is the large number of AZ vaccinated - and that the delta variant is what is circulating. The AZ vaccine only has a protection of under 50% against the delta variant (just being discussed on my local news programme). The expert has just aid, lift all the precautions and we'll be almost back where we were last year. The good figures they quote are not for the delta variant.

What WOULD have made things safe for all of us sooner would have been getting as many as possible vaccinated BEFORE opening up AND keeping distancing and masks as mandatory. The vaccine IS the key to the end - but only once the dreaded "herd immunity" has been achieved, To do that over 80% need to be double vaccinated plus at least 2-3 weeks to get max protection - and that includes children. Because although children don't get very ill usually, they can still pass on the virus to others and because they aren't vaccinated they aren't any safer in that sense.

We will be safe - eventually, providing this appalling approach doesn't allow more variants to develop and none of them escape the vaccines as the delta variant is partially escaping the AZ vaccine.

Froggie70 profile image
Froggie70 in reply to PMRpro

Thank you. Really appreciate you replying. I knew that the vaccine wasn’t 100% fool proof but didn’t realise the AZ was as low as 50% for the delta variant and then being immunocompromised on top of that, it doesn’t sound great. I’ve hardly been out but I have a week off work coming up and thought I might venture to the hairdresser (with mask of course) but I think I will just forget it. Thanks again🤗

PMRpro profile image
PMRpro in reply to Froggie70

I suspect it may not being talked about in the UK - I was listening to our local immunologist expounding at the time.

I got through that awful stage of growing your hair out last summer - and have decided since it is now very "textured" (I gather that is the technical term for wavy/curly hair these days) I will keep at it and accept the new look. I'm sick of paying a hairdresser who insists on forcing my hair into her image of what it should do. It is never going to work and I've told them all so - they manage 3 cuts and then it goes pearshaped. It is naturally like that and by the time I get home on a damp or windy day it is doing its own thing. Such a waste of money!!

Froggie70 profile image
Froggie70 in reply to PMRpro

I don’t know if you remember a cartoon called Crystal Tipps & Alistair, well that’s me just now. My hair is wider than it is longer. The only good thing is I can put it up in a top knot and forget about it. I do agree it’s such a waste of money.

To be honest I don’t think it’s anything but double talk in the UK.

Thanks again.

PMRpro profile image
PMRpro in reply to Froggie70

I was too old for it - but yes, mine is gloriously white not blue and looks just like that the day after it was washed. Same day it looks quite nice ...

Bowenlady profile image
Bowenlady in reply to Froggie70

Haha. That was my family nickname for me! I have ginger hair that used to go out in a wedge shape from the top of my head. Not purple like Crystal Tipps. Nothing would tame it until I had layers put in. It is still wild and curly. On a good day it curls and is full all over (except where I have some thinning on the top which is because of my health), but on a bad day I have ringlets like Shirley Temple! Google it younger readers! However I have the last laugh because without any dye or colours, at 65 years old I still have bright ginger hair. My brother who is 9 years younger and quite grey is not bitter, MUCH. when I told him I had a tiny streak of white hair appearing on the right of my temples his reply was a bitter “yea? No shit!”. He and one sister were blond/ mousy and my other sister was ginger. By the time she was 30 her ginger hair was white. So I don’t know what happened with me.

loopy-lou profile image
loopy-lou in reply to Bowenlady

Your hair sounds beautiful. I remember the Shirley Temple look! Something you have mentioned is extremely interesting. I was going to post about it but forgot. I also don't have any grey hair, naturally blond/mousey. I have had about 3 that I pulled out. I wonder if lupus or the meds contribute to it? My daughter +son 35 +40 have more than me! It's extremely odd!

Bowenlady profile image
Bowenlady in reply to loopy-lou

It can’t be meds as I’ve only started taking any meds since 2020. I’m wondering if it’s Lupus too. Anyone else got input? Perhaps we should start a new thread?

loopy-lou profile image
loopy-lou in reply to Bowenlady

Good idea. I have had lupus for about 13 years

Bowenlady profile image
Bowenlady in reply to loopy-lou

I’ve had the symptoms for 12 years. Only after a massive row with my GP did I get diagnosed. Anti nuclear positive tests had just been ignored. GPS would only discuss one symptom at a time. If 4 things hurt you need 4 GP appointments. Crazy, but true.

loopy-lou profile image
loopy-lou in reply to Bowenlady

I was more fortunate than you in that I was listened to and sent to a rheumatologist and got a diagnosis quickly. However, like you, I had several symptoms that were troublesome including spitting up blood (sorry) and was sent away by a different rheumatologist saying that it would be dealt with next time! I can totally relate to you!

Bowenlady profile image
Bowenlady in reply to loopy-lou

I tried not to go to GPs for years. I have had dry eyes, dry skin, muscle pain, swollen glands, sacral pain with severe inflammation , swelling joints, face rash (it’s shaped like a butterfly but on my chin), rashes all over my body, a cyst or ganglion under glutes. Then nose sores, mouth sores, dizziness, very high blood pressure. I’ve had HS Purpura twice, extensive endometriosis which resulted in hysterectomy at age 36. All I was diagnosed with was fibromyalgia. As things got worse after pneumonia in 2018 I had 7 lots of antibiotics to no avail plus a two week course of steroids. I eventually got to see a rheumatologist who said he thought I had Sjogrens. Then Covid came. Nearly a year later I was a wreck. That’s when I had the high blood pressure and GP would only discuss that. Long story short, big row with gp who said he didn’t know what to do with me. He phoned me two days later to say he had found anti nuclear positive test that had been “missed” by rheumatologist. I was sent back to him, tests done again, Hydroxychloroquine and prednisolone prescribed. 6 weeks later got formal diagnosis. Seems Sjogrens is part of it plus fibromyalgia, costochondritis, Reynauds. I’m just wondering when the pain will ease, if ever, and why my walking is getting worse and I now have to use a stick. I feel so embarrassed with a stick. I have put on weight with Covid lock down and steroids and I think people will think it’s just because I’ve become fat. Il get over it, it’s early days. But, my hair is still ginger! Lol! Or as my granddaughter with the same colour hair calls it “orange”.

loopy-lou profile image
loopy-lou in reply to Bowenlady

I am so sorry to hear of the pain and suffering you have gone through. I pretty much mirror you so totally can understand and relate. I am staggered that initially you were only diagnosed with Fibromyalgia! I too have Fibromyalgia, Sjogrens, Raynauds and Vasculitis added on to Lupus. (Hypothyroidism /Asthma). If anyone asks I simply say Lupus/SLE. I feel people would actually think I was making it up! I haven't had a hysterectomy though.Please don't feel embarrassed with using a stick. To be honest, I was exactly the same many years ago. I now have a different attitude and that is it is part of who I am and what I need. I am now actually looking in to wheelchairs! My walking has gone further down hill, it is painful, plus I get swollen joints and cannot move. I actually borrowed a wheelchair for my 2nd Covid jab after suffering badly with my legs after the 1st one. It made me realise that perhaps I could get out more. To keep in the car for days when I need it.

I too have put on weight with steroids (have been on them for years), plus the dose goes up during a flare. The Covid lock down hasn't helped either as I cannot exactly go for a proper walk. I understand how you feel. I am trying to do something about it. However, I am not getting far with it unfortunately at the moment.

At least we somehow have avoided grey hair. A small bonus I suppose. My young grandson who has gorgeous ginger hair tells me he is auburn....

One last thought.. are you keeping a diary of foods /weather conditions re your walking. It may be worth a try. I have noticed my legs are worse when rain is coming. You may notice a pattern.

Wishing you lots of luck

Bowenlady profile image
Bowenlady in reply to loopy-lou

Thank you for those kind and reassuring words. I haven’t kept a diary but it’s a good idea and I’ll start. X ❤️

Bowenlady profile image
Bowenlady in reply to Bowenlady

I keep one for pain as the girls on her have advised

loopy-lou profile image
loopy-lou in reply to Bowenlady

Take Care. Remember you are not alone. Lots of support here! xo💗

Froggie70 profile image
Froggie70 in reply to Bowenlady

Sadly I am salt and pepper 🤗

happytulip profile image
happytulip in reply to PMRpro

I agree with all you say Pro, just want to highlight that although children don't seem to get acutely unwell with covid they are susceptible to Long Covid. I think I saw on panorama the other night that there are 33,000 children in this country with LC. I'm sorry I can't provide anymore details or articles but I know I have heard that figure somewhere. So I'm completely with you about vaccinating children.

stillsdisease profile image
stillsdisease in reply to PMRpro

Very interesting! There’s not much talk of this in the news here snd I admit my 85 year old parents and hubby snd I 60 all thought we had 95% protection from THE VIRUS after our two AZ vaccinations, 😳 if I understand you correctly the delta variant is like starting all over again with the vaccine process. No wonder government wants us to have a booster!!!! Are we still at massive risk of catching delta even a month after second AZ vacation?

PMRpro profile image
PMRpro in reply to stillsdisease

The local immunology guru here said it's about 50% protection. Not quite starting over again. Yet.

I have been banging on about this all along - the vaccines are good but not 100% protection NOW, if there is another mutation there could well be a variant that the vaccines don't work for and then we are back to where were last year. Then it is the physical precautions that will matter. And since you are always playing catch-up they are crucial. They PLUS vaccine are the way out - not one or the other.

stillsdisease profile image
stillsdisease in reply to PMRpro

Noted thank you and I hope I’m not alone 😃

loopy-lou profile image
loopy-lou in reply to PMRpro

My 14 year old granddaughter has just recovered from Covid. It was picked up by a lateral flow test and confirmed by a PCR test. It appears to have been from a dance class as 5 others got it too. She was asymptomatic initially but went on to develop a fever, headaches and a cough. The rest of the family amazingly haven't had any positive tests.(Extreme care was taken) As I am still in shielding mode have only met up a couple times over the past couple of months and strictly at distance outside.

PMRpro profile image
PMRpro in reply to loopy-lou

A local village suddenly has 11 cases from zero. The summer kindgergarten - one child and everyone else caught it.

loopy-lou profile image
loopy-lou in reply to PMRpro

This is why it is so alarming. It appears to travel around children extremely quickly. It shows the importance of masks/ distancing we have to take as clinically extremely vulnerable.

PMRpro profile image
PMRpro in reply to loopy-lou

On it goes - an Italian footy team came here for its summer camp. One of them tested positive a couple of days ago - and now there are 10, So how many more will there be in the hotel - and the village?

loopy-lou profile image
loopy-lou in reply to PMRpro

Totally alarming! I continue to shield, haven't been in to a shop in 11 months....

PMRpro profile image
PMRpro in reply to loopy-lou

Not my village mercifully - couldn't be further away in the region in fact. But how many other villages have similar events. You'd really have thought they'd have been more careful in the run-up to the trip wouldn't you?

loopy-lou profile image
loopy-lou in reply to PMRpro

Thank goodness it isn't your village. I do agree, you just don't know how many other villages have a similar situation. It certainly appears I feel in so many situations that more care is needed. It appears to me currently that we seem a forgotten group. Shield one minute then 'free' to go out anywhere. My mind cannot do that jump.

PMRpro profile image
PMRpro in reply to loopy-lou

Mine neither - but I have had to go out all through, sole carer and no online food shopping here. It is starting but its more fancy shopping than an Asda delivery. But masks are mandatory and it isn't too bad. I called at one of the 3 supermarkets I use this lunchtime as I was in town anyway. I expected it to be heaving but of course the schools are off so it wasn't - almost empty, and being underground was gloriously cool :) Have enough of my favourite Austrian rose wine for the next month - can't be bad ...

loopy-lou profile image
loopy-lou in reply to PMRpro

Glad you are stocked up on rose', important things first! Your shopping conditions sound good, particularly shopping underground and keeping cool. I may brave a shop soon but it will have to be at night when it is quieter, masks and gloves on!

PMRpro profile image
PMRpro in reply to loopy-lou

No overnight shopping here either - all gone by 7pm!!!

Hi I'm not sure I can explain properly my understanding of what was said but I will try. There will be a number of people who have be double vaccinated that will catch covid, out of that number there will be people that will be hospitalised. Because a high number of people have now been double vaccinated ( I think more have than havent). This means the number of people hospitalised that have been double jabbed will also be higher. Hope that helps you make sense of it. I understand what he is saying but its hard to explain.

Hi there. Thanks for explaining it, they should have you up on the podium😁

Lol 😂. Hope it helped

Additionally one thing that wasn't explained was how many hospitalised people had been double jabbed for more than the 2 weeks it takes for the vaccine to take full effect.

I think that it’s 60% of a relatively low total number. Unfortunately I think some people will not produce enough immunity even with double vaccine. That’s aside from the efficacy of different vaccines to different variants e.g. 30% of people vaccinated with AZ will still catch COVID but hopefully will not be very ill.I think the government could be much more transparent about this. The AZ vaccine (unlike most of the others) doesn’t have efficacy against the beta variant. It only gives 10% protection in young healthy people. They hope it still prevents severe illness. This is why travel to France is now being discouraged. I haven’t seen this reason explained anywhere in the news. It’s worrying that they seem to be going down the herd immunity route, whilst there are still so many unknowns.

Froggie70 profile image
Froggie70 in reply to panther50

Hi Panther, I certainly haven’t seen much in the news about AZ and the beta variant. Thank you for replying, much appreciated. 🤗

PMRpro profile image
PMRpro in reply to panther50

Except all the "French" beta variant cases are in Reunion! A French colony island off Madagascar in the Indian Ocean, 6000 miles from Paris ... Spread from SA one assumes

Right - your question answered! Obviously PV has spent too much time with the government: He said it wrong (I believe the trendy term is "mispoke): 60% of hospital admissions are UNvaccinated! Which makes sense though I do wonder if even that is correct. It was reported on Sky this morning - will other media sources also cover it?

Shows how wrong you can be about someone - I really thought he was more reliable than that!

stillsdisease profile image
stillsdisease in reply to PMRpro

What is the world coming too when we can’t trust our own government and leaders! 🙁😣😣😫

PMRpro profile image
PMRpro in reply to stillsdisease

Hahahahahaha ...

More vaccinated people are dying of COVID than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England (PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died within 28 days of a positive COVID test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine. At first glance, this may seem alarming, but it is exactly as would be expected.

Here’s a simple thought experiment: imagine everyone is now fully vaccinated with COVID vaccines – which are excellent but can’t save all lives. Some people who get infected with COVID will still die. All of these people will be fully vaccinated – 100%. That doesn’t mean vaccines aren’t effective at reducing death.

The risk of dying from COVID doubles roughly every seven years older a patient is. The 35-year difference between a 35-year-old and a 70-year-old means the risk of death between the two patients has doubled five times – equivalently it has increased by a factor of 32. An unvaccinated 70-year-old might be 32 times more likely to die of COVID than an unvaccinated 35-year-old. This dramatic variation of the risk profile with age means that even excellent vaccines don’t reduce the risk of death for older people to below the risk for some younger demographics.

PHE data suggests that being double vaccinated reduces the risk of being hospitalised with the now-dominant delta variant by around 96%. Even conservatively assuming the vaccines are no more effective at preventing death than hospitalisation (actually they are likely to be more effective at preventing death) this means the risk of death for double vaccinated people has been cut to less than one-twentieth of the value for unvaccinated people with the same underlying risk profile.

MEGS53 profile image
MEGS53 in reply to Kevin53

Wow!

👨‍🔬👨‍🔬👨‍🔬👍👍👍

Roarah profile image
Roarah in reply to Kevin53

In America first shot vaccine people are still considered unvaccinated. We only count fully vaccinated, two weeks post final shot, as vaccinated in our stats. With this metric in the whole of the us only 3 percent of hospitalized covid cases are vaccinated presently and less than 1% of deaths are in fully Vaccinated populations. One shot offers very little protection. Two shots keeps people out of the hospital and alive just as it was designed to. Only fully vaccinated people are advised that it is safe to take off their masks in public.

BBC's Horizon made a very interesting programme on the maths of herd immunity - link below:

bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0893b6r

We are a long way from achieving it and unlikely to ever do so.

For my sins I’m a trustee of a pension (it’s another voluntary position!). Until recently actuarial tables continued to show longevity increasing. They are now indicating a decrease. Not because of Covid but indirectly because folk have not been seeking treatment and when they are the delays caused by the NHS back log as a result of Covid. Best wishes Kevin

I've just seen this, hope the link works, it's a tweet from Patrick Valance saying that he made a mistake. He said 60% of hospitalisations are vaccinated but should have said 60% are unvaccinated. twitter.com/uksciencechief/...

Kevin53 profile image
Kevin53 in reply to Whippet_lady

Such a difficult area. Therefore 40% were vaccinated. The devil is in the detail which they don’t provide yet Public Health England say 63% had received one vaccine. Best wishes Kevin

He corrected himself later on Twitter. Should have said 60% hadnt had the vaccine.

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