What are the stats?

Something I don't see discussed much on here are the statistics associated with quitting smoking.

Does anyone know, or point me to links that keep track of these sorts of things?

For instance, what percentage of people who quit are still smoke-free three months later? Six months later? One year later? Five or ten years later?

I'm curious about that.

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  • hi i was curious about that as well the other day , i looked up giving up smoking going cold turkey and it said there was only a 5% success rate , but it didnt say how long people actually quit for before starting smoking again.

  • Not user friendly

    Hi DGee

    I don't know of any "user friendly" links about the statistics. I've found them to be scattered all over the place and quite difficult to decipher a lot of the time.

    As far as statistics on staying quit, each help to quit device usually has the statistics with them e.g. Champix gave the statistics on how long people stayed smoke free in a correlative form with the months on Champix.

    I take statistics on giving up smoking with a grain of salt to be truthful. Statistics can lead to incredible statements like "It's harder to give up smoking than heroin". Physiologically this is a nonsense, but because statistics include those people who say they've quit, ( words are cheap ) but aren't serious, then the figures are meaningless.

  • I agree that stats can be wildly interpreted and perhaps (to some) a bit depressing, such as hearing a 5% success rate. If it's that bad, why even try, some might say.

    I look at the other way 'round, however.

    I like to take pride in beating the odds. When someone says, "Only seven people have ever done x," and I'm about to try x, I'm pumped to be #8.

    As I close in on one year off the stuff, I'm just wondering how many quitters make it that far. I know when I first quit, a year sounded like a century. But part of what kept me going was wanting to join the One Year Smoke Free Club - particularly if I would be defying the odds by getting there.

    That's just me, and obviously, YMMV.

  • I dont want to join the one year club, I want to be a non-smoker...I have not smoked for 11 days now...I find that quite incredible and my head is telling me it hasnt really happened but it has....and do you know what I think I could do another 11 days...statistics are all fine and well...but when you are on day 1 doing Cold Turkey and you read that only 5% succeed what is the first thing you will want to do??.........

  • Statistics

    Based on my research, 29% of people who post on this forum quit smoking for at least one year. I have the facts to back this up. Whether it's cold turkey or NRT doesn't seem to make a difference.

    Moral of story = keep posting. Articulation of the process of quitting helps.

  • I dont want to join the one year club, I want to be a non-smoker...I have not smoked for 11 days now...I find that quite incredible and my head is telling me it hasnt really happened but it has....and do you know what I think I could do another 11 days...statistics are all fine and well...but when you are on day 1 doing Cold Turkey and you read that only 5% succeed what is the first thing you will want to do??.........

    agree for some people who read the stats it is off putting , but for others it could make them more determined , depends how much you want to quit at the end of the day i suppose .

  • My research

    Hi Lostie

    The research is from the January quitters 2012 only. It does back up what we all know though I think. That is - quitting smoking requires a shift in a mindset, the sub-conscious to be specific. Hence the people who engage in this forum are engaging in a mind altering narrative. We hear many stories and problems and they are all nourishing for the sub-conscious. From all of the posts available, people can choose a narrative or identity that fits their style of quitting.

    The success rate for the people on this forum will always be higher than for the general public since there has been a positive change in their mind which made them post here in the first place.

    So Lostie you're doing very well with your quit and with this forum you're bound to succeed. :) See you in the Penthouse.

  • I'd agree with Nonico - if there were clear stats available I'm willing to lay good money the success rate for quitters using this forum would be considerably higher than the national average, no matter which 'method' was initially used.

  • I'm curious about that.

    Here's the very graph that gave us the strapline for Stoptober.

    I recall is was something like "stop for 28 days and you're 5 times more likey to quit" It comes directly from the middle graph.

    5 or 10 years is quite short on data for many reasons but up to 60 weeks is straightforward.

    About 6% is the success rate irrespective of the method of cessation.

    When you hear statements like, "twice as likely" "double your chances" and so on they relate to earlier sections of the graph. The NHS count you as a success at 4 weeks despite having put you on a 12 week NRT programme.

    In my humble opinion one year quit is a success story and the graphs available tell that story all too clearly.

    What is quite scary is the graph up to 12 weeks. If you can get that far the odds of making it a year are huge but the failure rate up to 12 weeks is a freefall plummet! :(

  • stats

    I have heard, through a reliable source (my dad) that out of every 100 quitters, 15 make it to month 2, 10 to month 4-6 and 5 to 12 months!!

    True or not, it gives a confidence boost!!

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