London had more Covid-19 than most places - and they did not completely close the tube - result - they have the lowest R0 in the country (Highest herd immunity).
If they opened up all schools immediately, might one or two people die? Did they close the NHS because NHS would die?
Here is a good video about herd immunity:
If I get a positive antibody test next week will it be legal or advisable for me to visit the vulnerable elderly? I think I will ask Age UK.
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London was the worst affected in hospital related admissions before lockdown. They do have the lowest transmission rate but generally the R is under 1. 0. I personally don't believe a new virus should be left to run rampant amongst the population so I disagree with the views held by the Professor promoting herd immunity. As for the antibody test, if it is positive, we do not know what consequences it may have. It doesn't tell anyone that we are safe and can't still pass the virus on to others and it does not tell us if we have protection from getting it again. We don't know what possible restrictions a positive test could mean. 👍😊
Yes... nobody tells us very much... because nobody knows very much.
Letting the virus run rampant through the entire population would, I think, be a bad idea - the vulnerable elderly do, I think, still, need to be isolated - preferably until there is a vaccine?
We do not know a great deal about Covid-19, but we can develop immunity to other coronaviruses, so it is reasonable to expect that we can get immunity to Covid-19.
The countries that are successfully lifting lockdown have 4,000 or more confirmed cases per million (Italy 3,781) - we are approaching that now. (I think that, for "herd immunity", we would need more like 400,000 actual cases per million)
There are, I think, three levels of immunity:
Non-specific immunity.
Immunity to some other coronavirus, which might give some immunity to Covid-19.
Covid-19 specific immunity
Boris has to make decisions without much definitive knowledge.
The word "science" does not seem to mean anything anymore!
You are right; It's a brand new virus, herd immunity would take several years to establish, we haven't got anywhere near it yet.
As you said, there is no 'Science' developed as yet, and no 'Experts', as it is so new.
Cheers, Midori
I think that, the more rapidly it spreads, the quicker we get herd immunity - so lockdown only helps if it keeps the rate of infection low enough to let the medics cope.
I just hope it is all over before it mutates into a more lethal form - as with the Spanish flu.
The 'Spanish Flu' actually originated in America, on a Chicken farm, in one of the Mid West States in the First World War.
The Patient Zero worked with the chickens, and was called up before symptoms were apparent. He infected his platoon , and they infected more, and so on.
The first wave was defeated, but the second came back mutated and much stronger, eventually killing 500,000,000 people. It turned out to be one of the H1N1 chicken flu viruses. I don't know if it is still available on IPlayer, but there is a programme calle The Flu that killed 500million. It is worth looking at.
This Pandemic has not got anywhere near that casualty rate so far, and we have the antivirals, which can help, and antibiotics which can assist with the secondary infections, as well as respirators and other assisted breathing technology.
With the lockdown being eased in England and across Europe, I feel it is only a matter of time before it comes back again, probably mutated and far stronger. The ease of intercontinental travel helps the spread, don't forget there were no aircraft or international air travel back then, few cars , only ships, yet still it got around.
'Herd Immunity' won't be with us for several years,unfortunately; at this stage of the disease it is wishful thinking.
Spanish Flu is a useful tool, studying it and its effects will help us understand the way these things spread and mutate, while we shelter and wait and hope for a vaccine.
Cheers, Midori
Most days I look for signs of a second wave in the data.
Probably a couple of weeks to a month away in England.
We have been about two weeks behind Italy - and they seem to be doing OK - with almost identical confirmed infections per million population.
We do not get much data from China - but we have heard of a second wave there... but they had a very much lower infection rate - and it is a big country.
There is a distinct possibility that there might be a wave in Devon and Cornwall - as they have not had many infections so far - and if everyone dashes down there as soon as the restrictions are lifted...
I think that regional variations might be too complicated for the government. If they did have a significant outbreak in Devon and Cornwall, they could move train-loads of patients to the Nightingale hospitals.
Oh bless, its so cute how you wrote that.
"The Flu that killed 50 million" is still available on iPlayer - I found it by Googling it.
I hope that, if, like the "Spanish Flu", Covid-19 mutates into a more lethal form, immunity to the initial form gives immunity to the later mutations.
Direct quote from that article seems to imply Herd Immunity:
"The virus will weaken continuously during transmission, and that the new coronavirus will reduce its toxicity after several generations of transmission, without causing much harm to the human body. So when the weather gets warmer and the virus's toxicity continues to weaken, the epidemic will prevail without a fight.
The scientific basis given by these speculations is that the intention of the virus itself is to survive and reproduce, not to kill the host. Therefore, the virus will become more contagious and less toxic during transmission. But this seems to be different from our memory of the historically high lethal viruses such as anthrax and plague."
Good points-its such an unknown quantity that even the best scientists cant be expected to have the answers.
To answer your question re test and vulnerable elderly probably not as most care homes are closed to anyone via carers and health professionals . Unless your family member is going to pass away from the virus sadly I think it is a no but please check with who ever you wanted to visit as each setting is different . All the best and please stay safe .
Thank you so much to S11m for posting that video. Regardless of how we feel about Herd Immunity, the professor has made some valid points.
Everyone has their own theories and opinions, it's impossible for everyone on earth to agree on a unanimous policy. To impose a global blanket lock down in a supposedly democratic World is a serious infringement of human rights! The suffering is insupportable. All lives matter. The people who have had their lives ruined by this policy is living a gross injustice.
It's a gross injustice because there is no reason why the people who like the idea of lock down couldn't do self-shielding, social distancing, wearing PPE, or do whatever they can to protect themselves. I just don't see the necessity to impose on others, especially if it's seriously ruining lives. Mental health can also be fatal, there are also other things that are worse than death.
Having a different opinion is not a problem, but imposing on others is. We need to be fair in order to enjoy a better World.
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