@CDCgov is finally admitting what I have been arguing for over a month: vaccine effectiveness wanes over time and breakthrough cases become more common and more severe especially against the #Delta. The @US_FDA and CDC must approve the vaccines and boosters ASAP.
But for us CLLers there is a but. I urge caution against assuming the vaccines are safe for CLLers. I am working a follow-up post.
Thankfully, many of us are sharing our experiences from our third and even fourth COVID-19 vaccinations, so we can get at least some idea of the incidence of adverse events. That's in addition to the many hundreds of posts about responses to our first couple of vaccinations, plus there is this specific post asking for feedback from Dr Brian Koffman: healthunlocked.com/cllsuppo...
We've also had some members share their COVID-19 illness experiences. While vaccinations can't be guaranteed to be perfectly safe, for most, the risk/reward calculation is strongly in favour of vaccination.
In other posts, we've discussed nodes swelling in response to vaccinations and some members have voiced concerns about COVID-19 vaccinations perhaps leading to earlier treatment than anticipated. Inevitably, some of us are going to need to start treatment for our CLL within months of our vaccination. So let's do a "back of an envelope" calculation. The AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccinations are given 3 months apart, so let's use a window of 6 months. Given a median time to first treatment of say 5 years, if our chance of needing treatment is the same just after diagnosis as it is 5 years on, then we have a 5% chance (1 in 20) of needing treatment within the 6 month period from when we were vaccinated. (That's from 50% of us needing treatment within 5 years (60 months) and 6 months in 60 months giving a 1 in 10 chance). Our community has 18,000 members, so just by chance, about 900 of us will need to start treatment in the 6 months window following any vaccination, be it for COVID, flu, pneumonia, shingles, etc. To determine if any vaccination can trigger an earlier likelihood of needing treatment, then we would need a very large trial to differentiate between chance and correlation. Same goes for any other change in our health. When treatment time comes around, our health can deteriorate rapidly if our treatment start is delayed, as I've personally experienced.
We should all be given questionnaires to complete beforehand and for our continued good health, we should answer them honestly. The CDC COVID-19 vaccination template states:-
"For vaccine recipients:
The following questions will help us determine if there is any reason you should not get the COVID-19 vaccine today. If you answer “yes” to any question, it does not necessarily mean you should not be vaccinated. It just means additional questions may be asked. If a question is not clear, please ask your healthcare provider to explain it."
I would expect that some of us would be recommended against having the COVID-19 vaccination, or at least be obverved more closely afterwards. I don't have tetanus vaccinations, because judging from the response to my last one, my risk of having an anaphylactic response is considered too high, but that's the only recommended vaccination I've not had.
Neil
Yes, very valuable information to collect, analyze, discuss, and disseminate.
No one had told me about the possible downsides to vaccines for CLLers other than that it may not work as well. Everything else being equal I would rather delay treatment start until scientists develop a cure - hopefully in 5 years.
I read another HUer who is monitoring his vaccine antibodies test scores monthly or bi-monthly and that vaccines antibodies scores wane (lower) roughly about 6%/month per his research on the topic and his personal test results.
Very interesting topic. It’s the “ok I have taken vaccine shots n may have some level of antibodies, so now …. how long is the vaccine effective” question? Seems like antibodies tests could be the answer?
I’m doing those antibodies monitoring tests now to see how the scores either hold up or “wane” and by how much per month or bi-month. Adds a bit of science to the topic versus just being told to wait 8 months n get a booster shot? Cus what if ones vaccine “antibodies gas tank” happens to run empty in 4 months? I figured why not get antibodies tests to see how the scores are doing and where one might stand in regards to when to get a booster shot?
Just a thought.
That's brilliant! If I didn't live in the COVID capital of the world I would have done the same. I was and still am pissed at the FDA and CDC for discouraging people from getting the antibody test for the vaccine. For the immunocompromised, we need to know. Any data is better than no data when you don't fully understand what is going on. They should have encouraged more antibody testing and checked to see if and when the vaccine efficacy begins to fade, and whether vaccines work as well for CLLers. If not, how not. Clinical trials are the gold standard in health science but if you can't do it; do what you can.
I have reservations about that claim being true. They simply have no idea whetherthe protection wanes with time. It's just another headless chicken running around in the backyard that they let out. It may be just the delta that is causing the breakthrough infections. If we can't measure the level of protection offered by the vaccines, then how can we know whether that level is waning or not? The logic does not make sense. I've read about trials that on the contrary, assert that the vaccines give protection for a few years even. Give protection against which variant? Shooting arrows in the dark, they are. Nobody has a clue.
Recent Nature article provides evidence of vaccine efficacy waning:nature.com/articles/d41586-...
Moderna Booster compared to 1st and 2nd shot Moderna vaccines
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At last! Booster vaccine after 3rd dose. Process is working
