UK'S BIG VACCINE SURPLUS - YET NO ONE IS SAFE!

[bennevisplace]

Ponder this.

COVID VACCINES - DOSES ORDERED BY UK GOV, USED OR AVAILABLE

Astrazeneca: 100 million

Pfizer-BNT: 135 million

Moderna: 17 million

Janssen: 20 million

TOTAL: 272 MILLION

COVID VACCINES - DOSES ORDERED BY UK GOV, CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE

Novavax: 60 million (promising trial results, manufacturing issues)

GSK-Sanofi: 60 million (trials ongoing)

Curevac: 50 million (trial results disappointing)

Valneva: 100 million (supply agreement cancelled by government)

COVID VACCINES USED OR COMMITTED

1st and 2nd doses over 16s: 93 million given

1st and 2nd doses over 16s: 12 million pending (my estimate)

Reserved for Q3-4 booster programme: 30 million (my estimate)

Reserved for 12-15 yo vaccinations: 5 million (my estimate)

TOTAL: 140 MILLION

BY MY RECKONING THAT LEAVES THE UK A CURRENT VACCINE SURPLUS OF 132 MILLION DOSES.

The UK government has pledged 100 million doses to other countries. In mid August, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said: “Three million doses of UK-donated vaccines are now arriving in 11 countries across Africa, including Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, to help the fight against COVID-19. This is the first batch... no one is safe until everyone is safe".

[Belfastbees]

Well presented, and a very depressing indictment of a wealthy country such as the UK. Its not over for anyone until its over for everyone. Should be committing to giving surplus away ASAP. I hope there isn't a vaccine defeating super nasty variant on the horizon, but that's a twist that would serve 'us' right.

[bennevisplace in reply to Belfastbees]

My concerns too, in a nutshell.

[LeoPa in reply to Belfastbees]

And since it will never be over for everyone, we might as well get used to it not being over for anyone. Let's not forget that younger people weather this sickness better, and the less developed countries have much younger populations than the developed countries of the West. The only solution to this problem is the natural way. The virus will have to evolve into a less dangerous one. Once it becomes akin to the common flu, things will go back to normal. That might take years though. What we need is a mutation that is very mild but very contagious. That would be like a natural immunization. No vaccines necessary. It would get everywhere on its own "feet".

[bennevisplace in reply to LeoPa]

theconversation.com/how-wil... basically concurs with your view.

In future it's a given that successful strains of the virus will be highly contagious, but how at the same time can these produce only mild symptoms? Only, in the long-term, through survivors' sustained immunity: derived from past infection or protective drugs. Before the world gets to that stage, unvaccinated communities could sustain a lot of casualties.

[LeoPa in reply to bennevisplace]

I believe they will. But with the number of casualties the vaccination rate will also go up. I'm sitting in the front row looking at the situation from close up. Our infection rates are skyrocketing (twice as bad as the next worst in the EU), the vaccination rate is nothing to write home about, hospitalizations started to considerably go up as well. But not the daily vaccination numbers, at least not yet. I'm curious to see how many we will have to bury and how many will need to be in the hospital before the daily vaccination rate shoots up. As of today people are not scared enough yet. I think that will change in a few weeks.

[bennevisplace in reply to LeoPa]

In the developed world perhaps vax rates will increase as punters' attitudes change. But there are numerous countries, still, without access to vaccines on anything like the scale required to prevent hospitals and mortuaries being overwhelmed. Let's not forget, these places are also mutant-nurseries.

[81ue]

Novavax is interesting and doing a combo covid/flu shot trial in Australia. That could be the annual booster to get all variants of each virus.