All over bar the shouting, or shouting all over the bar?

[bennevisplace]

The BBC yesterday reported that the daily number of Covid cases recorded in the UK had fallen for a seventh day in a row, to 23,511 bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57981899 The day before, the BBC was asking "Covid: Have we passed the peak and can we relax?" bbc.co.uk/news/health-57971990

Is it "all over bar the shouting" as one minister is reported as saying?

Last Monday's FT had a few possible explanations for the recent falling numbers, a trend at odds with the expected surge after the lifting of many restrictions on July 19th, a surge many experts predicted would take us past 100,000 cases a day.

Firstly, the number of positive tests doesn't yet reflect Freedom Day (that should begin to emerge very soon); secondly, it's possible that fewer people are now electing to have a test when they should, or have no reason to if they are asymptomatic; thirdly, the schools have broken up for the summer; and finally(!) England's month-long run in the European football tournament has ended. The graph of football-associated infections in young men evidences the super-spread potential of such events ft.com/content/cb86d9a8-665... and may herald trouble to come over the summer, with more people congregating in clubs and music festivals, and with other entertainment venues running at full capacity.

And as travel restrictions ease (US, EU and some other visitors) there is the possibility of importing Beta, a Covid variant against which the vaccines are less effective, and sparking a fourth wave.

In urging people to remain cautious and not jump to premature conclusions about the falling numbers, the PM is right. But I think the big mistake is failing to put in place enough compensatory measures while easing restrictions. And from a selfish perspective he could have done a lot more to make life tolerable for those who can't rely on the vaccines for protection.

[ChristyAnne_UK]

Great post. 👍

[bennevisplace]

Just came across another take on the same question. This one's a bit teccy theconversation.com/why-cov...

[Psmithuk]

Yes! Totally agree.

[Ghounds]

I feel as though we are considered a potentially expensive inconvenience.

[Newdawn Administrator]

This bar they refer to…I’m not going there just yet to order celebratory champagne.

Today in the U.K.

31,117 new Covid cases

85 deaths (up 28.9%)

932 new hospital admissions

Testing down 14.1%

nearly 700,000 pinged by Test & Trace to self isolate last week alone

Hip hip hooray! Really? 🙄

Newdawn

[bennevisplace in reply to Newdawn]

I guess Freedom Day is beginning to feed into the numbers... I'm going to celebrate by unwrapping my box set of Not Going Out.

[Ghounds in reply to bennevisplace]

😀

[richardp]

Illuminating post. For those who participate in the Zoe Covid 19 app, Professor Tim Spector yesterday made similar comments about the drop in Covid cases and was cautious about drawing any conclusions at this stage.