"Covid is on the way out. Pass it on"

[bennevisplace]

Of course the epidemic is not on the way out. Right now it's very much on the way back. Faced with a worse-than-worst-case scenario, gov.uk has reversed policy and announced that on November 5th - anniversary of the famous plot to destroy parliament - England will start another national lockdown, duration at least 4 weeks. Those who will NOT stay at home include essential workers, university staff and students, teachers and schoolchildren - that's a lot of people.

One of the main drivers of the "second wave" of Covid cases in Europe seems to be the underestimated transmission of the virus between people indoors: working, shopping, socialising, studying, travelling, even (ironically) keeping fit. Evidence is growing that in such settings "hands, face and space" are not enough, because indoor meeting places are the domain of Aerosol Transmission. Speaking loudly or breathing heavily are enough to spread virus particles throughout a room. Chances are, the spreader will only find out later, if at all, what they were doing and to whom.

Shortly before Covid-19 became a global phenomenon, Nature published an article nature.com/articles/s41598-... describing how people could emit large numbers of microscopic particles just by speaking normally; "Furthermore, a small fraction of individuals behaves as 'speech superemitters', ...unknown physiological factors, varying dramatically among individuals, could ...help explain the existence of superspreaders who are disproportionately responsible for outbreaks of airborne infectious disease".

By last July, many scientists (but not at that stage the World Health Organisation) were convinced that the coronavirus was spreading through airborne transmission including aerosols smaller than 5 microns across bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3206

Fast forward to October, and the world now knows a lot more about how the coronavirus is passed between people. Laboratory experiments are backed up by huge data sets from track-and-trace software. However sketchy the data may be, in aggregate it enables analysts to put some figures on transmission rates, not only from one geographical area to another but in various types of indoor and outdoor setting. In France and Spain studies have been published. In Wales "chatting indoors" has been identified as the main cause of the recent upsurge in Covid cases bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-547....

This article english.elpais.com/society/... is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three everyday scenarios, based on the safety measures used and the length of exposure. It's notable for some memorable graphics illustrating what are a few simple learning points. How a room or other indoor space is ventilated turns out to be very important, yet official guidance addresses this only briefly gov.uk/search/all?manual%5B... and I doubt that many managers of offices, schools and the like have made any special provisions.

Under the coming lockdown in England, most of us on this forum will, I hope, be following the rules if at all possible. Afterwards, and in places where life carries on "as normal", maybe these simple learning points will help you and yours to stay safe.

[Fran57]

Thanks very much for that - we just need to convince those who are not taking it seriously enough and causing the rest of us to continue banging our heads against the wall! 😫

As I heard someone say on television the other day, when listening to people going on about how Christmas won’t be the same, are we really setting a roast dinner against all these tragic deaths?

Some seem to believe that we are being punished by being locked down, rather than doing something to prevent thousands more suffering. Maybe it is hard to see how dreadful it is until you are affected personally by this horrible COVID..

Stay safe,

Fran 😉

[bennevisplace in reply to Fran57]

Yes, most folk are trying to get it right, but do they really get that the active partner in this pandemic is not the virus, it's people.

[Smakwater]

Thank You for the reinforcement of practicing appropriate and safe behavior bennevisplace,

We should always practice good behavior that has proven to produce desired outcomes.

Most of these behavioral improvements that I read about today with the onset of covid are the same things that my mother taught me as a child. I know personally a covid research scientist, and they speak to reinforce such behavior.

As it requires very little effort, we should at a minimum:

- Wash hands vigorously for 20 - 30 seconds with soap when appropriate

- Maintain personal hygiene

- Develop awareness not to touch ones face without a clean hand

- Keep surfaces, the area around us, and the things we put in us clean, e.g. food & beverage

- Keep appropriate distance, avoid large crowds that propagate infectious outcomes

- Cough downward and away from others and cover the cough appropriately

- Stay away from others when we are ill or possibly contagious

- As much as possible by whatever means keep fresh breathable air a constant

- Comply reasonably and respectfully to accepted medical guidelines

- Be considerate to others that hold a different view while being consistent in our own good behavior.

With the exponential increase of human existence and the ability to travel abroad there is an exponential increase in infectious risk that we all need to consider and be of positive influence.

As history proves, it is inevitable at some point there will be another future infectious threat. We did not need Covid to teach us this, rather Covid is teaching us a lesson.

Let's get it right. Be Safe, Be Considerate, Be Healthy.

JM

[bennevisplace in reply to Smakwater]

You had a good teacher Smakwater. Not everyone has it seems. There are those in authority and others out there on the street whom Covid has taught little, and who insist on going without a mask as a personal right. Have they not learned that wearing a mask and keeping their distance is less for their own protection than to protect other people? Or do they just not care? I'm afraid this is one instance where I find it hard to make allowance for people who hold a different view to mine.

[Smakwater in reply to bennevisplace]

Do not be misled, I am a bad boy.

There are a lot of smart, kind, compassionate, humble, and extremely patient people who have not yet given up on me.

I am only grateful.

Thank You for complimenting on my Mom the teacher. She is a good one.