Update for CEV from Ukgov issued

[Belfastbees]

Rather disappointingly there is no specific advice from government in their latest update which just tells persons identified as CEV to be 'extra careful' . Also they are not advising anyone to stay out of work if they can't work from home. I do hope the other nations don't follow this moronic stance. I would also hope as cases ramp up in England they will see sense and re-introduce shielding properly supported. Fair play to Robert Peston (ITV news) who seems to have latched on to the lack of any guidance thus far, we should all tweet him!

gov.uk/government/publicati...

Edited to replace shortened URL reference, as using these is a security risk, plus, now we can see where the reference takes us - admin

[LeoPa]

Most other countries are watching this experiment with interest, as they should, and we hopefully learn lessons from it before adopting similar measures, if at all.

[Belfastbees in reply to LeoPa]

Much of the science community has banded together, signing a letter published in the Lancet questioning the sense and even ethics of this experiment. This was published with 122 names behind it which I believe has now around 1000.

[Floxxy]

Why should we put our lives on hold by shielding again? If only it was compulsory to wear masks on public transport and shops and maintain social distancing except with friends and family that would be simple ways to keep us all so much safer, help to prevent transmission and stop this vile disease from multiplying. I just can't see the logic in the information Boris is giving us. X

[LeoPa in reply to Floxxy]

Delta is so infectious masks won't help in public transport. The economy would be dead in its tracks if the necessary measures to prevent it from spreading would be put into place. Looks like there is only 1 way. Get vaccinated, keep shielding till this blows over. Let's hope most will make it though sure many won't. It should be over pretty quickly.

[Belfastbees in reply to LeoPa]

I think you're right, sadly, about masks. It doesn't get talked about so much but the Kent variant was more I fectious, the delta more again. I read its more likely to transmit outside as well. Its inevitable masks will be less effective. I never went for a cloth mask, always either a surgical but will now use ffp2. I intend to keep time exposed to risk minimal. Shop quickly and off peak. I'll wear a mask as it may help to a degree, but it's more out of hope and that's its easily done than anything. I think it would be easy to become complacent, thinking a mask makes everything OK.

[LeoPa in reply to Belfastbees]

An ffp2 will definitely help. I do also off peak shopping, quickly. Pick the items and get out. No fooling around.

[Belfastbees in reply to LeoPa]

Yes, understood. Fresh bread, mushrooms and beer. In and out 5 minutes 👍

[LeoPa in reply to Belfastbees]

For me it's meat,eggs, coconut milk, and veggies 😁, occasionally dark chocolate. That's pretty much all I eat and not much else.

[neurodervish in reply to Belfastbees]

You've got the brown food group covered! 😁

[lankisterguy Volunteer in reply to LeoPa]

Do you have any data or references to support the statement about masks not helping?- I have not heard one expert make any statements like that.

-

I agree that getting vaccinated and shielding will help, but I doubt that masking is ineffective.

-

I believe that this NIH study provides useful data about masking.

healthunlocked.com/api/redi...

-

Please look at Figures 2 & 3 and Table 2 showing the best methods to reduce our exposure to 99.98% of the droplets and fine particles in our personal surroundings.

-

Len

[Belfastbees in reply to lankisterguy]

I'm not sure the question is directed at me as I didnt say they were ineffective. Even a cotton mask will have some benefit over nothing I would say, though minimal.

My statement is an assumption I have made, to me it is logical that if a virus is more transmissable the probability of the mask not doing its job increases.

Its important not to think the mask means youre 100% safe. It seems logical to me also that new variants will become even more transmissable. Its evolution, survival of the fitest. That which can propogate easiest wins. The further risk is exposing masses of vaccinated people to the virus circulating in infected people. The delta became dominant because as well as being more transmissable the vaccine is less effective against it. we are trusting to luck, we all become immune or the virus looses steam, as happened in the 1918/19 flu. It just fizzled out.

[lankisterguy Volunteer in reply to Belfastbees]

My comment is, as it is marked: "in reply to LeoPa" -

Len

[Belfastbees in reply to lankisterguy]

Devil is in the detail which I missed. Apologies.

[LeoPa in reply to lankisterguy]

I didn't mean to say they don't help at all. They don't help to contain delta in a meaningful way. In places where people are closely packed together even badly fitting respirators are not very efficient. Masks don't prevent droplets from escaping, neither do they prevent inhalation of surrounding droplets unfiltered through the fabric around the lose edges. Masks were quite efficient against the previous mutations. Now tight fitting respirators are needed. The article is all 2020,old data. Delta is 4x as infectious as previous versions.

[AussieNeil Partner Administrator in reply to LeoPa]

LeoPa,With respect to masks, you mentioned above that "the article is all 2020, old data" , but where are you reading this newer, alarming information that you are sharing? I've seen mentions of the delta variant being anywhere from 40 to 75% more infectious not "4x as infectious". That's a huge, 5 to 10 fold difference!

From Yale University: futurity.org/delta-variant-...

Neil

[LeoPa in reply to AussieNeil]

What I read is that 1 with Delta infects around 8 others now. The Wuhan version infected less than 2. The Kent variant was 40% more infectious than the Wuhan version and Delta is 60% more infectious than the Kent variant. I didn't do the math but it quickly adds up. How many will this be after abandoning all precautions? Being alarmed is most appropriate.

[AussieNeil Partner Administrator in reply to LeoPa]

Thanks for explaining how you got that alarming infectious factor, but it would really help us all better understand our real risk, if you gave references to evidence based information, rather than sharing your "back of the envelope calculations".

[LeoPa in reply to AussieNeil]

Right now there is very little evidence based information regarding Delta. So a healthy dose of educated guess can do no harm in my opinion. Especially when it errs on the safe side. We have a saying which says "it's better to be afraid than scared". I admit I am more afraid than most because I hate to be scared 😑

[AussieNeil Partner Administrator in reply to LeoPa]

I had no trouble finding references and Dr Jamil has been covering delta in his updates each week, stating over two weeks ago, "The delta variant (Indian) is 60% more transmissible than the alpha (Kent variant) and you are twice as likely to be hospitalised with it than with the alpha. If you look who is being most affected at present – it is people in their 20s – most of whom have not been vaccinated yet."

[LeoPa in reply to AussieNeil]

We are on the same page. 160% of 140% is 2,24 times more infectious than the original version. That's with lockdown,masks,shielding. After abandoning all precautions,who knows. Perhaps the figure I read was assuming this. Not a trial result, just a respectable newspaper.

[LeoPa in reply to AussieNeil]

I forgot the most important thing. With Delta the person becomes infectious already the next day after he is infected. This way it is very well possible that one infected person can infect eight others before he even finds out that he is infectious. Again the devil is in the detail.

[LeoPa in reply to AussieNeil]

And one more thing. Since the manifestation of Delta is quite a bit different from the original virus, many young people with a runny nose, no cough, no loss of smell, a little bit of a headache, did not realize that they might be infected. So they just went out and passed it on. That would be another thing to consider.

[Belfastbees in reply to AussieNeil]

I thought, just from news coverage the original wuhan strain had an R0 of 2.8 unmitigated. That multiplies out to 6.2, if you ad 40% then 60%. It makes perfect sense that the dominant variant will spread easier, it cannot stop becoming dominant. The race is on between the virus and the vaccine but this is on a global scale. The R0 for measles for example is around 15.

[LeoPa in reply to AussieNeil]

BTW we have a problem with radical antivaxer Facebook warriors showing up in front of houses of our most respected doctors who are publicly in favor of vaccination. They are threatened with bodily harm. There was mention of hanging, cutting of their kids heads off and similar nonsense in Facebook discussions. The original of the article is here: dennikn.sk/2465287/radikaln...

Unfortunately it is subscriber only.

After this I came to the point where I say bring on the third wave as fast as possible.

I hope that's many of these idiots will succumb to it.

[Belfastbees in reply to LeoPa]

Unfortunately most of them will survive and use that as evidence that vaccines or any mitigations are bogus, or that the virus is fake.

[LeoPa in reply to Belfastbees]

That is sadly a possibility as they did not learn their lesson from wave 2. But unlike in the UK, here many young people are vaccinated and half of the 50+ are not. So the third wave will be much more devastating than the second one, IMHO. Everybody is very relaxed as right now we have almost no infections and the country is all green. No rush getting the vaccine. But a few days ago the infection curve broke to the upside. Those who predict the third wave to be milder than the second one may be right in the UK, but very wrong in Slovakia. I hope I'm wrong but in a few weeks many will come to realize this. We'll see.

[Belfastbees in reply to LeoPa]

It's sadly the case that the delta variant in older unvaccinated population will cause much more sickness and death. Good for the young people of Slovakia. I've been impressed with the younger people here too, I find the most vocal anti masker or anti vaxer are usually older, in their 40s or 50s.

[LeoPa in reply to Belfastbees]

Exactly. Most of those antivaxers are 40+ and lots even 60+ and older. The less educated, the more against the vaccines. Young educated folks took it when they could. I got two teenage nieces, both are vaccinated. Obese 50+ friends - some are not! Go figure. And the worst problem is that this will not be a gradual increase of load on the hospitals. If things go wrong fast, they will have no chance to cope.

[Belfastbees in reply to LeoPa]

Of course not. The UK has a very lauded, and rightly so, NHS. Free at the point of delivery for everyone but it is over managed and under resourced and funded. There is never much capacity free in the hospitals, it's all a delicate balance and of course it costs money to keep beds in the system that are empty to pick up surges for any reason.

[LeoPa in reply to Belfastbees]

We have a very similar system here (free for all), except it is way more underfunded and a lot of money is wasted on top of that on account of corruption. There were a few notable cases like when a hospital bought a CT machine way above market price with some desicion makers lining their pockets along the way and similar. But most of the docs and nurses are great. I never had a problem getting an appointment or a checkup all through the pandemic. Waiting times were shorter than in the UK on many occasions (compared to what I read about on this site).

[Belfastbees in reply to LeoPa]

Nothing worse than false hope. I've reasoned what you're saying and it makes sense. I use an ffp2 mask. Bought a pack of 15 of them on amazon. How good are they, they could be fake for all I know. I also reuse them which is contrary to the instructions and I'm sure detrimental to any effectiveness they have. I excuse myself by saying I'm only wearing it for very brief periods.

[LeoPa in reply to Belfastbees]

In case they fit well they are much better than any mask. I reuse them a few times too. I steam them for disinfection. I also wear them for short periods only. They are very ubiquitous these days. Wow that's a lot of Is. 😁 . Not because I am self-centric. It's just that voice typing works better this way.

[Belfastbees in reply to lankisterguy]

No I dont have data but its important to say i did not say masks did not help, I said I believe they are less effective. Thats just my logic. supposing you need a certain initial innoculum of coronavirus to catch it then the mask will reduce this. When variants are more transmissable I reason that this means they are easier to catch, they fit better and may take hold into the ACE2 receptor which is the start of an infectuon. I would assume that this makes the amount of virus, say in the case of Delta, getting past any defense (including social distancing!) to cause an infection to be lower, in effect the mask is less effective, but not useless. I am not a scientist however this is what I assume through my own reasoning.

[ChristyAnne_UK]

Great post! Thank you. 👍

[Newdawn Administrator]

Yes well done Robert Peston who has gone up in my estimation for quite forcibly making the point about the risk to the clinically vulnerable. I’ve just read a headline from the Independent that says, ‘Clinically Vulnerable are being thrown to the wolves!’ so the message is getting through.

The guidance from the Govt seems to be as weak as water with similar sloppy boundaries! 🙄

I keep thinking of the beginning scene of every episode of Hill Street Blues where the senior cop says, ‘let’s be careful out there!’

Newdawn

[Belfastbees in reply to Newdawn]

Robert Peston (sorry to correct but auto correct changes it to Preston for me too 😂) has been very vocal, and that's what we need. Perhaps his own humanity since his wife died of lung cancer and maybe he can think of others in that position now which makes him a good man.

UK gov have a poor track record of calling things so far in this pandemic and people have paid the heaviest of prices. No reason to think it will be any different this time. I understand there are now 1000 signatures to the Lancet published letter. Let's get that into the press.

[Newdawn Administrator in reply to Belfastbees]

Yes I noticed auto correct had sprung into action so corrected it. I like the Honourable RP but sometimes his strangulated diction is irritating. Didn’t know about his late wife but maybe it has heightened his awareness of vulnerability.

Newdawn

[AnneHill in reply to Newdawn]

It was terrible when his wife was dying. He campained for more research into lung cancer. His wife had never smoked and he said that charity and sympathy was difficult to get because people thought it was self inflicted. He looked gaunt and lost so much weight his clothes were too big.It reminds everyone how awful losing a loved one is. All these people dying from covid and how easy this government can sweep it under the carpet.

I thought I was getting things into perspective. Social distancing and masks made we feel I could go in a few shops and restaurants. Now this Delta virus is running riot. My daughter in law is really fit aged 41 and had both vaccines and that shows we are going to be vulnerable.

I feel sick with nerves. We went away and everywhere seemed safe.

The problem we have is how to say no. No I dont want to visit your Mum. She has people in her flat that wont be wearing masks.

No I darent go to a restaurant with my family for my Grandsons birthday.

You will have to go on your own.

I dont want to stop meeting my friends in the coffee shop. Every 2 weeks thats all. I will be asking if changes will me made. Then what?

[Belfastbees in reply to AnneHill]

Did your daughter in law catch it? The vaccine is less effective though to what extent I don't know and some people will get symptoms. It would be good to see the breakdown of hospitalisation or deaths against age or comorbidity and whether or not, and to what extent, these poor folks were vaccinated. All useful data but with Ukgov just in the mode to get covid done (like brexit) I doubt there's much interest in sorting more data, much less sharing it.

[AnneHill in reply to Belfastbees]

Yes she did. She had to pick up her 12 year old son from school because he was unwell. She said she wasnt feeling too good. The home tests went straight to positive for them both. They then did the other tests through the post and they were both positive. Lisa felt feverish and was unwell. She had both vaccinations several weeks ago. Her son was in bed with a fever and was really poorly for about 3 days. They have 2 other sons who didnt catch it and my son who is an electrician didnt catch it but couldnt work.The girl that does my cleaning had one vaccine and didnt catch it but her son did. He is about 14 and was unwell with a bad cough and a temperature.

Its clear that the vaccine doesnt stop the virus even though it protects some.

It shows we are not safe.

[Troglodytes]

Incredible stance from govt. Dropping all mitigations for airborne virus at point of exponential growth. As my antibody test was negative and absent evidence of other immune protection, I'm avoiding shared indoor spaces and my kids (in the Covid-reservoir of school) are staying with my ex. A tough few months ahead.