Research predicts ‘end date’ of coronavirus crisis in US, UK, Italy, France, Spain.

[2greys]

A research project by Singapore University of Technology and Design used data-based estimations to create models which show the coronavirus life-cycle in specific countries, and estimated an “end date” for the COVID-19 outbreak globally and in specific countries, including the US, UK, Italy, France, Spain, Germany, India and Turkey.

english.alarabiya.net/en/co...

[sassy59]

Roll on September 30th then. Xxx

[Kristicats in reply to sassy59]

Ditto

[SORRELHIPPO]

Interesting, but unsure how much they factored in any mutation of the virus.

[Cateran in reply to SORRELHIPPO]

They say that they are using a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, but admit uncertainty factors such as government policies, testing protocols, and human behaviour. For the UK that has to be a guarantee of the weakness of their estimates, because the first factor is quite a shambles. I quite agree with you SORREL, as the model is weak from the start.

[Daisy55]

Very interesting thank you

[illawarra]

Yes most interesting. Thanks heaps.

[Collie4]

Would be good if this is right. I hope so. Thank you for posting.

[Badbessie]

I have my doubts but I do hope they are right.

[blueskies--2 in reply to Badbessie]

Me to

[AngieB72]

That would be lovely - let’s hope this bit of research is valid!!!

[Ergendl]

Great to have a possible end in sight, even if it does prove to be out by a couple of weeks.

[Cateran]

As always 2G, your science and research posts provide a valuable service to our lung community, and point to the value of an alert mind tuned in to informative articles. We have a lot to be thankful for, and enquiry is one of these benefits which you almost daily provide for us. You save us all a lot of time. Cheers.

Terry.

[2greys in reply to Cateran]

Thanks, I search for the info anyway, it is no big deal for me to post them. Seconds.

This is interesting and in a way supports the prediction model:

Low coronavirus transmission rate 'could jeopardise vaccine trial':

"The chances of success of a vaccine trial in Oxford could be halved due to how quickly the coronavirus is fading in the UK, according to reports."

standard.co.uk/news/uk/coro...

[Cateran in reply to 2greys]

Yes, 2G, quite a paradox in the offing and ironic in its own way. A kind of necessary evil, so to say.

[2greys in reply to Cateran]

A very similar situation to the Chinese developed treatment, not enough infected to test it at home , so it has to go to other countries to be tested. I suggest the same may happen with this vaccine, it would be unthinkable for them to wait until the winter for a possible second wave.

healthunlocked.com/blf/post....

[watergazer]

Would be good if this were to happen. Fingers crossed. x

[Superzob]

Sorry to break up the party, but these figures look a bit optimistic to me. Using a Gaussian distribution suggests that the exponential increase in early virus contagion is matched by an exponential decrease as infections decline. But if you look at UK figures, the decline is much more gradual (ie, a shallower slope on exit compared to a steep slope initially). Consequently, I would expect cases long after 30 September, but hopefully these would be few and far between so as not to start a new outbreak. In that sense, I suppose, it would amount to an "end date", though there must be considerable uncertainty in what is actually going to happen with schools opening, increased public transport use and social gatherings.

[Dilly2]

🤔 interesting

[blueskies--2]

Ditto if this correct

[Angelagone]

Wonderful, if true. Seems a bit optimistic though.