The resumption of the daily work commute risks returning UK coronavirus cases to an exponential growth, according to new modelling from the University of Sussex's School of Engineering and Informatics.
The lockdown measures introduced on 23 March dramatically slowed the spread of COVID-19 in UK by limiting travel and consequently infections into largely isolated spatial clusters, new research led by Prof Maziar Nekovee at the University of Sussex indicates.
In many ways we are still stuck in the first wave. The infection rate and death rateis coming down but realistically there are still too many infected people in the community to call this phase over. Their modelling can only be accurate if based on good data. However some scientists believe 3% of the population have been infected but on the news this morning another study stated 30% could have been infected. Without massive testing these types of studies can only give a wide range of predictions.
The people in my local park yesterday, were acting like it was all over. Great to see families enjoying the sun, but sad that there was not much sign of social distancing despite all the signs around. Second wave likely to start rising here very soon.
So sad, if the figures are to be believed we have come a long way, all the progress could be spoiled. I think Bojo has jumped the gun. We were supposed to have Test, Trace, Isolate, capabilities in place before any release of the lockdown. We can only wait and see.
I watched the commuters get off the buses, no social distancing, so the virus will spread again. Are the Gov. now switching to herd immunity on the quiet?
I think that may have been the plan all along, just slowed down to a point that the figures are at an acceptable level to the public, of course the public will start to get "number fatigue" and begin to not take much notice. If you notice, all along is "the need to not overwhelm the NHS" message, not the need to protect the public until a vaccine arrives.
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