TA - technical analysis of PSA

[beogradjanin]

Dear companions, I am 57 yo, 7 years since diagnosed MPC with bones and lymph nodes Mets (PSA 155). Since then on ADT (lowest PSA 3,7).

2 years ago added bicadex for 6 months, than after rise of PSA went on 6 doses on Docetaxel, (PSA went from 55 to 5,5) and later after one year of steady rise (PSA 85), start Xtandi 3 months ago. PSA now in downtrend at 11,5.

Since I was previously being working on the stock and Forex markets (stress you can't imagine), I am familiar with technical analysis.

Last month I applied 7 years data of my PSA, on the graph, and made some technical analysis of it in order to identify trend, support and resistance levels, and predictions, as for the stock or Forex market, so I am very pleased with outcome, since it somehow look to me very useful and predictable tool, if you have enough data (usually I was measuring PSA levels on monthly or 3 months periods).

Have you heard of that TA method used for tracking PSA, since it is not complicated to do in Excel, and looks to me very good and pretty accurate tool of tracking the PSA trend, or PSA moving in a specific range, so it can be used to identify moment when it break's certain resistant levels in order to change therapy.

It looks to me as a scientific model, which is better than just only oncologist intuition, when is the best time to change therapy, since it is essential to use maximum of the current therapy, and keep backup of alternative drugs in reserve, for future, when it is really necessary (when the previous trend is breaking resistance level).

My oncologist look only at the last, and maybe 2 previous data of PSA, which I think is not accurate enough, using more approximation than science.

Any thoughts?

[LearnAll]

Using technical analysis to see PSA trend ? Lovely idea. I do use T.A. in selecting stocks and am familiar with this. I bought 1000 shares of TEX (construction equipment co. ) in march2020 at $ 13.50 and sold a few days ago at $27.05..making enough profit to get my labs done privately every 2 weeks in year 2021. I did write in a post about TEX in March-April on this forum.

Coming to the main issue...when forced to use stronger and stronger androgen suppressing meds...the risk -benefit ratio shifts towards risk of more side effects and less of desired effect with time. Its like a Call Option...a gradually wasting asset as time passes.

Here I would suggest "hedging strategy" and that includes use of off label meds such as Metformin, Statin, Doxycycline and use of herbs and spices like turmeric, Ginger, Cruciferous veggies, red tomatoes ,Dark red dried grapes ,pomegranates, red apple peel and so forth. Even each of them help.. say 5% each...the cumulative benefit may be a significantly profitable trade. Traders take risks.. they do not wait for randomized clinical trials to make a trade. If they do.. someone else will be faster and they might go in loss.

I just checked TEX chart. .its at 28.20 today ..but its forming a beautiful cup.. with a lttle pull back ..forming a handle and this might be in upward trend. What you think? Thinking of buying some naked calls on TEX.

As long as PSA is range bound in a tunnel and not breaking the resistance line...its logical to continue the current treatment regimen.

[MateoBeach]

Well perhaps that is a fine way for you to assess your PSA history (the past). And it should highlight past inflection points when therapies fail or new ones start to work. I prefer to use PSADT inflections.

As long as you recognize that past trends do not predict future results. Both financial markets and cancers are “complex adaptive systems” that are intrinsically unpredictable and are continuously evolving. That is why changes in therapies over time will continue to be necessary.

Your TA sounds like a fine way to know when but not the what.

[LearnAll in reply to MateoBeach]

We do not need to kill every single cancer cell in the body. Just like dealing with Islamic terrorists (ISIS, Al Quida etc,) We just need to disorganize and degrade them to the extent that they can not cause harm to our body . Just like the terrorist who evolve, we too keep evolving to counter them by all weapons at our disposal such as anti inflammatory food, Herbs, Spices, physical exercise, anti androgen meds, Lupron like meds, Radiation therapy, Surgery, Chemotherapy and Immunotherapy....and Nuclear ones such as Lu77 etc. We really have an assortment of deadly weapons against cancer but what we need is the use of them in proper sequence and at proper time. Our radar includes frequent surveillance by biomarkers, imaging scans and keeping general health in good condition. If I can keep them on run for next 10 years, I will feel like I achieved my victory.

[Rocketman1960 in reply to LearnAll]

Excellent analogy! Here is to the battle! I’m 10 years in and still fighting.