I am interested to hear views on the efficacy of Covid vaccines with new and emerging variants. I have been wondering about this for a while now and came across this article from the University of Manchester. I have posted extracts from the article below.
Importantly, I am not anti vaccine. I have had seven Covid vaccines to date, but I purposely missed the spring booster. This is because I contracted Covid for the first time in March, my thoughts being exposure to Covid would provide me with antibodies in the short term; however, the fact that there was no modification to the vaccines also played into my decision making. I was hoping by Autumn there would be some modifications to target the FLiRT variants at least, but it appears not.
I have had my flu vaccine today and will ‘probably’ still book my Covid vaccine in a couple of weeks time, as I believe it will offer ‘some’ protection.
I just thought I would put this out there to get others’ thoughts
“The autumn vaccine campaign will also provide eligible patients with left-over vaccines from the Autumn 2023 campaign instead of purchasing new vaccines”.
“research shows older formulations of vaccines are less effective against variants which emerged after they were developed (such as the JN.1 variant). Modelling suggests they’ll be up to a third less protective against severe disease”.
This is just one study (2 analyses) but is no surprise re outdated vax formulas. I believe it measures protection against any infection while most discussions are about protecting from severe cases. But even mild cases have risk. I don't think a new vax with ~20% effectiveness would be approved for use. And Jn.1 is already old news so that 19-23% likely is even lower.
My take is if one wants decent infection protection in UK, pay private for the 2024-2025 vax.
And in the reference you provided: "Ideally we would be looking to develop or acquire more durable vaccines that confer longer-lasting immunity – such as nasal vaccines or multi-variant universal vaccines"
These are underway with a ph1 ongoing for one in the US. I think this should be higher priority than it is. With my vax history I would consider the new nasal vaxes when they come out.
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But there is a shocking finding in the Cleveland 2 study I linked. "...a higher number of prior vaccine doses was associated with a higher risk of COVID-19."
Hazard ratios compared to (0-1) prior doses: 2 doses- 1.46, 3 doses-1.95, >3 doses-2.51. These had high quality statistical p values.
This means for those who got recommended vax series prior to getting the 2023-2024 vax, catching Covid was 2.5X more likely than for those who avoided earlier vaccines. This is a bad message and I hope can't be right. But there was discussion early on about imprinting, which has so far not been a published worry. This is where the first vax locks in a variant protection to the exclusion of newer variants. This Cleveland 2 bad result is one way imprinting could manifest.
This is one example of imprinting
"Persistent immune imprinting occurs after vaccination with the COVID-19 XBB.1.5 mRNA booster in humans"
Thanks for your thoughts, detailed answers and interesting links. A lot in there confirms my own thoughts. That Cleveland study is food for thought!
From a UK perspective, it’s frustrating that the UK vaccine manufacturing company which could have invested in developing better vaccines has been sold off to a private US company in 2022.
You mention for us in the UK paying private for the 2024/5 vaccine for better protection. I actually wonder if that is possible. I did have a quick perusal, but came up with nothing…
One effect of sky high US drug prices is companies come here to make money. So we get good access at a cost. An economic and political issue with trade offs just like other parts of life.
I don't know UK practice, I understood much was avail at cash prices. It seems you can't access the current formula there at any price. Your reference has an old link saying Boots will offer private jabs at £100, but it's not current.
Sprat19 below says the 2024-25 is available. Maybe both are on offer?
But the surprise data from Cleveland needs corroboration; if real it brings up a trade off on continuing jabs. I can't get any so I can put that decision off.
I have found this (16 September 2024) update on the government website, so ‘Sprat19’ is correct.
Which vaccine is being offered?
You will be given a vaccine made by Pfizer or Moderna. These vaccines are updated forms of the vaccines used in previous campaigns and produce slightly higher levels of antibody against some strains of Omicron.
Not very specific on the formulation, as it could comprise any updated version. But that would be unreasonable if they meant the older one. " slightly higher levels of antibody against some strains of Omicron" seems faint praise. But the Cleveland study did find decent benefit for JN.1 (except for that nagging contra detail).
US FDA says "It includes a monovalent (single) component that corresponds to the Omicron variant JN.1 strain of SARS-CoV-2. " No wiggle room there.
I do have some hours of some days that are ok, thanks for asking. We just did a camping trip as was our routine pre-mess. Those good hours were handy.
I have Schwannomatosis or NF3, which I have had since the age of fourteen, when I had a benign tumour/"hard lump" which was surgically removed at that time, [I also hurt my skull, subsequently having Fibro Myoclonic Epilepsy, at a similar period] I am aged 68. [I have had over 400 seizures in my lifetime] In February 2021 I was given the Astra Zeneca vaccine [I was in covid isolation since 2020 as I have diabetes 2 amongst other things] the next day I went down to local LVH A&E "heart flutters" which after inspection EEG etc was released. I received my second jab in April, this time the reactions were a bit more dramatic, when I got home 'very dizzy' two schwannomas opened up on my left forearm, started bleeding. Eventually I was admitted to Ulster Hospital in June 2021, I had tremendous shaking of my left arm [where both injections had taken place] by that time I had now got about 10-20% of muscle use of my left arm, skin hanging off my left arm, numerous tests took place, including a CT scan where I was told by a house doctor "the next seizure you had would probably be your last!". [I had had a double seizure in Jan 2018, but a certain "LVH local hospital" had NOT properly inspected?] I now have my own personal specialist for the Schwannomatosis, which had been finally diagnosed in 2017. In February 2024 I suddenly was able to get some sort of normality in my left arm "I wasn't able to squash a grape until now!" as I politely grasped my epilepsy specialist's hand after the occasion. I still have tremors in my left arm, probably not helped by this incident, also had a schwannoma surgically removed on my left elbow in 2012, so not really surprising there! I have had various covid vaccine injections [in either arm] since then no vivid reactions! Due to misdiagnosis of suspected Prostate Cancer [I had two schwannomas on my prostate] the subsequent Decapeptyl SR injections, which reacted badly my osteoporosis/pectus carinatum my rib cage structure "untreatable", so the "buggered chest" and "bashed bonce" does not exactly my chance of a long life??
There are always going to be reactions like mine for Covid 19 has opened a new "can of worms" everyone is different, one of the biggest challenges of medicine is just that, maybe I'm a bit more dramatic than most, no one is perfect🙄, but these are basically new steps in the dark, a new field to explore Good Luck👌
I’m aware of the concerns around using old vaccine stocks and noted that my recent jab (my 10th!) was from a batch that expired later this month, so definitely not new stock!
My view is to have the jab anyway, in the hope that it provides some protection, even if that’s not complete. I’m taking part in the STRAVINSKY study, which has shown that I do have good levels of antibodies from the jabs - though I can’t tell which variants they will be effective against.
Thanks Andy. It’s good to hear you have taken part in a study which shows you have made good levels of antibodies, let’s hope that’s enough for the new variants.
I'm not convinced any further vaccines are necessary. I see you are in UK, so from this UK gov website.
Here is what they say: gov.uk/guidance/high-conseq... , "Status of COVID-19: As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be an HCID in the UK. There are many diseases which can cause serious illness which are not classified as HCIDs." Please note the date.
Obviously WHO wanted to keep pushing things, which most countries happily joined in to be begin with, until real scientists/doctors started to look more closely and witness unpleasant side effects. But its hard speaking out when your job/livelihood is put at risk, and that's why the whole thing dragged on so long. Plus a lot of money changed hands.
Just yesterday I spotted a paper in Journal of vaccine theory, IJVTPR, that states' At Least 55 Undeclared Chemical Elements Found in COVID-19 Vaccines....' That was all of the vaccines. link: doi.org/10.56098/mt1njj52
I personally think that a person has the right to know what is being put into them and to be made aware of all the risks, no matter how big or small. Good reason to read the package insert for all medications or check online.
There is also compelling evidence that having more jabs weakens your own immune system, which isn't great. Its already been openly stated that the jabs don't stop you catching covid, don't stop you spreading it and so you can still get ill regardless. Maybe boosting your Vit D levels for winter may be more beneficial?
Take care. Do your home work. Only you can decide what is right for you once you have all the information. xx
I have always been pro vaccine, but I was hoping it would eventually get to a point where it would be given once a year like flu vaccine. But as Covid is not seasonal I suspect that’s not going to happen.
The point I was trying to make is there seems to be no modification to the vaccines to combat new variants, so is it worth having it?
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