Up to two thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months are likely to have died this year from other causes, a government advisor has said.
Now that is some perspective scary but true.
Stay Safe People
More Perspective : Up to two thirds of... - British Heart Fou...
More Perspective
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Prada47
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48 Replies
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Do you have a link to that information please?
Prada47 in reply to
Hi Gill
I took it from yesterdays Daily Telegraph it's not on the site now sorry. The remark came from Professor Neil Fergusson
The prof may well be right, but that doesn’t stop the 66% & their families wondering who they are nor does it excuse the lack of PPE for those on the frontline in A&E.
Hi
It is impossible to say who will pass and who won't it depends on so many different factors. Level of Care state of Health prior to catching the virus, but Neil Fergusson is one of the Best, We can only listen and self evaluate what's being said.
I think you know as well as I do if you have a 6 stone Gran in a care home who is suffering from COPD or Heart Failure she probably wouldn't survive. In fact she probably wouldn't get as far as a Hospital bed let alone have a Ventilator,
NICE have Issued Critical Care Doctors a scale of who to Ventilate and who to let Go. Now that is difficult but they have made the decision, and they have to live with it.
The lack of PPE is a difficult one when the whole world wants it all at once. I don't think we can lay that at any ones door in particular. You could say why have we not been stock piling since 1918 just in case, A lot of this equipment has a shelf life.
I think a lot stems from Journalist looking for something to Say and make a name for Themselves, they don't give a toss if it's true or not.
Why as a Country do we try to pull ourselves Down.
I fall into the mid category of Save /Let go aged over 70 with Heart Failure and a History of Heart Disease . I know if it was my Gran Children or Yours who needed a ventilator I would say let me Go
Personal View I know
Stay Safe People
I'm with you, especially on the part about mine and your grands. I'm no saint and I am in no hurry to die - but if it's the difference between someone's youngster and me, I'll struggle on without the ventilation.
If I make it, wonderful, if I don't, that youngster better grow up to be a first class world beater!
Hi Prada
More perspective here:
spectator.co.uk/article/wha...
This article contains a link to the original research paper for anyone who's interested in seeing the original source.
This is just a theory at the moment but will soon be tested via randomized population testing once the new tests are available.
It is a more positive scenario and if proved correct could lead to the lifting of current restrictions much sooner. I guess many people could be left with a lot of toilet roll 🤣
One can never have too many of those - it doesn't go off, takes up a reasonable amount of storage space, and is always used eventually. I'm giggling but it's true 
Everyone looks at oldies, especially with heart disease etc but the huge number of young people who are morbidly obese and smoke shouldn’t be complacent. Hopefully it will bypass them but who knows.
stillaboveground in reply to
Oh you have so hit the nail on the head
Rather a cold clinical perspective and no comfort at all for the bereaved or for those who may be in that group and are waiting to see if they will get this dreadful virus.
Agreed. True as it may be, Professor Ferguson making that statement (with an active case of coronavirus looking absolutely cream crackered and with his mask down from his face) came across as disturbingly cold. I honestly sat here listening to him thinking he was speaking with a fevered brain.
I actually have quite a lot of respect for him but I wish he'd reserved that 'clinical assessment' for private distribution rather than public. Although many of the public might agree and be thinking the same, there just are some things that really ought not be said in public.
Sorry Prada47, but we have known since December we required more PPE. The preparations have been woeful. Where was the pandemic planning? Where were the stockpiles? Where were the plans to repurpose manufacturing to masks?
My son is an A&E junior Dr and he doesn’t have PPE. Bad for him, bad for you and bad for us his family.
Hello
Sorry but imho you are wrong. The NHS had a budget to work to. Please don't forget a warehouse full of rapidly ageing PPE or a current Bypass operation what would you spend your budget on ??
Good point, something to ponder, thank-you.
On that I definitely and strenuously agree. I am a nobody and I knew back in December when the 'rumours' started coming out of China regarding a 'strange new pneumonia' that we were headed for something big and potentially very, very bad.
I won't be ashamed - I started buying one or two extra at the supermarket before Christmas because I took notice of the so-called 'rumours'. Sad to say but with China, 'rumours' have a nasty habit of turning up to be plain unvarnished fact - and I was right to think that considering everything.
So, if I could work it out as far back as the second week of December 2019, why couldn't the so-called Western World leaders? We all should have been preparing for the worst whilst hoping for the best starting then and there. Instead we now have our medics having to make horrendous 'choices' no medic should ever have to make.
I think we need to remember that this country has been obsessed with Brexit since 2016. Certainly the politicians & media have!
Corona Virus could have hit us like the snowfall of '63 and we would have still been arguing over Brexit! The only difference being we would have being arguing how much Brexit was ot blame for our unreadiness.
No one has learned from SARS and I'm not really sure anyone is busy learning from this - it's all about the money and that does not seem to be changing any time soon, which is owrrying because it means at some point some one will start deciding on who lives and who dies based on their ability to generate revenue fot eh economy and Big Corp!
That may well be true. But the hard part is taking that information and using it to inform policy. What does it mean in policy terms? That we still need to lock down or it's not necessary to have a tight lock down or what? It's difficult to stop and have a national conversation with the virus so contagious. And I think the bottom line is that those who've lost loved ones will never forgive or forget if they feel that government policy contributed to their deaths.
Even if that's true, no one wants their life to be shortened even by a few months.
But not to die by suffocation.
in reply to lettingoffsteam
And on that note I think I'll leave this post alone as I am waiting for my test results, pretty much academic apparently but then we shall see who is classed as elderly. Will be interesting
lettingoffsteam in reply to
Hope all is well GillMac1.🙂I'm waiting for some results too...not easy is it?Keep safe.
The definition for elderly I believe is 70 years old. Which has moved on from 65 which used to be the age at which " Old Age Pension " started.
Stay Safe and Take Care
I finally got confirmation although a bit academic now, that I do have Covid 19. On the plus side I am classed as a young sufferer at 56 🎉
Chronic25_Catlover in reply to
How did you go about getting tested?.As I believe you gotta jump through hoops (as always) as in taking note of symptoms self isolating if get worse ring 111 they check and if they think you do they call 999 and then you get tested which is alot to go through if you're a high risk and in time you get worse you could get real worse.Haha always good to be classed as young though when you're young you don't haha like myself I'm 25 and hate when I'm considered as young as I'm quite an old soul logically and it seems biologically haha
in reply to Chronic25_Catlover
Things are done a lot differently here in Scotland. I was referred by 111 to our Covid 19 Hub locally and they contacted Cardiologist who requested testing. This was done at the Hub
Chronic25_Catlover in reply to
Yeah seems to be case when was discussing a letter sounds like it is policed abit different,ahright I see I have heard of like pop up testing hubs here no idea where though or what have to go through to get to then all I know is the above that I said.I also ask cause I have cold symptoms and also last few days a cough that on and off one time was horrible and last night felt weird too it came back also feel abit drained but no consistent cough or fever.It's hard to determine cause am I just generally got a cold or is it just my Heart condition or is it Corona.See can take ages to get through to 111 and even if I could request a call back dunno when they would and then if they did ring for an ambulance I don't wanna go through all that to find out I may not have it but yh it is my health and best to check I guess so I dunno I guess I'll ponder abit more and see how I get on may address to my Cardiologist when on phone to her.
What does the testing consist of?
in reply to Chronic25_Catlover
Sorry as you are I England I have no idea of the process. If you think waiting for 111 to answer isn't worth it then do you really feel that ill to warrant testing. It's not something you can request at the moment
Chronic25_Catlover in reply to
Also I hope you fare well with it ♡
in reply to
Look after yourself and hope you get through it with the least amount of suffering as possible.
Sunnie2day in reply to
I'd save the confirmatory letter, perhaps even frame it and hang it on the wall with the family portraits. Something for the family to look at one day and say 'Yeppers, she had it and survived!'.
Sounds as though you are on the mend. When you're up to it, an account of your bout would be valuable to read.
in reply to Sunnie2day
I already tried the account of what I was going through and got some very unsavoury responses and pms so deleted it. Not really something I am prepared to do again
in reply to
So, even in an hour of plight and need for comfort and reassurance, the trolls are out in full force. It is expereinces like this that make me wish nature had contrived to create a 'troll' virus - one that affects all the people with a mean streak in them.
I'd bet that no one would be in a hurry to develop a vaccine for it either - leaving it to large portions of humble pie as the cure.
Your recovery will be all the encouragement I need...
in reply to
I must admit I expected better from members of this forum which is why I stupidly felt comfortable to share.
Disappointed was not the word for it 😥
Sunnie2day in reply to
I'm sorry, I forgot about that! As SuffolkLad says, the trolls are out
Yasyass in reply to
I hope u have a speedy recovery just wondering how you are doing
This is what’s making this disease so scary. No government can prepare for something like this. I agree with Prada. I’ve been in some situations before. I’ve been in a fire in a department store, a fire on a bus on a motorway, I was in Hong Kong and China during SARS. The people panicking are not the ones you’d expect to panic. Who are we to decide whether or not the obese smokers should be saved? As far as I’m concerned the young come first! My kids/grandkids can have my ventilator any day.
in reply to Maisie2014
I would amend that opinion to the healthy and those who offer a real benefit to society can have my ventilator. Young doesn't mean healthy, and saving a nurse over someone who does customer reviews on make up etc is far more useful.
Prada47 in reply to
Could be a brilliant Reviewer lousy Nurse who makes the judgement !!Safer with Young v Old but just my opinion which I don't make the mistake of thinking is always correct . Even though it is the majority of the time !!!
Stay Safe People
Wow! I can’t believe what you just said Suffolklad. Who are we to say who benefits society? Thanks for the sensible answer Prada47.
I understand your reaction, it's mine as well.
But in the end, what I really feel is desperately sad for the medics who are having to take these horrific decisions as to who is going to be on a ventilator - or not.
in reply to Maisie2014
I always take society from the base up. People who provide the essentials of living (food, health, somewhere to keep warm and dry) - those are the people who I would give up my ventilator for. Young or old makes no odds to me beccause there are extremely unhealthy youngsters and extremely healthy oldies.
For me, some one reviewing make up does not provide an essential service to society like some one who looks after peoples health - hence my rather simplistic comparison. How society defines life critical is not for me to decide, only offer my opinion on.
Lezzers in reply to
Tell that to Katie Piper who without make up would probably have hidden herself from the world. Make up has given her the courage to face the world and show others that they too can do the same! What is not important to some may be a life saver to others. Have you ever seen anyone with severe acne scars or any other scars that make up has helped make less visible and has made someone more confident!
in reply to Lezzers
Read my previous commoent...
Re: Katie Piper, she is not the noly one who depends on make up.
Who are we to decide if a young murderer to live whilst an elderly GP Docotor dies?
This is my final comment oon the issue - unless i am to be trolled?
Lezzers in reply to
Glad to hear it's your final comments and you may consider this a troll comment. But who are we to judge!!
Prada47 in reply to
Hi Suffolk Lad
But the youngster you may let go may have been called Einstein that's something you don't know !!
Stay Safe we need lads in Suffolk
If I'm to die I'd still rather have my loved ones hold my hand
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