Good morning everyone, today our prime minister will set out is goals for the coronavirus , lifting some restrictions , my question is do you think it's the right time to start doing this and what's the chance of a second wave.
D. Day: Good morning everyone, today... - Positive Wellbein...
Positive Wellbeing During Self-Isolation
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D. Day
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IMHO - Not worth the speculation time - let’s see what is proposed first.
Hindsight gives wonderful insights - forecasting is nothing more than informed guesswork - at best - & dangerous scare mongering at worst.
Hi Longsider,
I think the PM and his government have the toughest part of the whole crisis, coming up. The choices are, let the economy continue to tumble and slide, taking with it a raft of people who are going to lose jobs and/or be ruined financially, or to take an almost certain leap in covid19 cases by going too far, too fast in easing lockdown. An unenviable task and one which will draw criticism in equal amounts, whichever way he happens to go. So I'm just going to take a back seat on this one and wait to hear what he has to say later.
in reply to
Good call Callendersgal, I think he's given himself time to see what people did over the Bank holiday weekend , and what ever he decides to do their will be people for and against.
Emma2017 in reply to
I am sorry callendersgal I don’t agree. They were warned before by proper scientists to put Britain in lockdown some 4 or 5 weeks before they finally did it as the economy was more important than lives and herd immunity was their strategy. Thanks to that the virus accelerated enormously. We have not been in lockdown as long as Italy, our numbers are still way too high. Every day we have the second or third highest number of deaths in the world, only beaten by countries with a far larger population (US and Brazil). So no easing lockdown is wrong. Yes he will be criticised either way but I reckon those that stand to die will be in favour of lockdown continuation, what’s more important someone’s life or someone’s wealth.
Hear hear Emma.
"Proper scientists" is a joke - when you can find articles by qualified professionals to support (almost) any point of view.
The reason being S11m that all those with proper scientific background in epidemiology are not listened to and even silenced. They did not do or say what the government wants to hear. Instead they are replaced by other people with definitely not the same scientific background or credentials. Let’s not forget that the mainstream media is owned by the billionaires who are pally with our current government so whatever is printed by them is very questionable.
So - it is politics, not science?
Science is knowledge - and what we are getting is “informed” opinion.
Deal with it when it comes round is my view.
I’m expecting small changes, with plans outlined for the next steps.
Will be waiting for the news to find out what happens... I just hope that England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland can fight this together. Times are hard and upsetting for everyone during this crisis but I know we can do this! Stay positive, and hopefully the correct decisions will be made!
I personally think it is too soon and that Government are being pushed due the the worryingly difficult economic situation.
Sadly I also think that hinting at lifting some restrictions on Monday has caused some people to think OK we can get together over the weekend because by Monday it will be allowed anyway.
in reply to ellj
I agree he should have given this briefing last Thursday!
It would have been interesting and informative to see if there will be an increase in infections as a result of the VE day celebrations.
Easing restrictions will extend the first wave, and, hopefully, give us some herd immunity and prevent a second wave.
Countries that used lock-downs might appear to have "got away with it" but might get a second wave.
Herd immunity is, sadly, a myth. You need a majority of people, something like 90% and over, to achieve herd immunity to highly infectious diseases. Here it's suggested that for covid19 ist would need to be around 70% as it isn't as contagious as, say, mumps:
sciencealert.com/why-herd-i...
So far, if you look at Worldometer, you can see that the vast majority of tests are still negative. We are VERY far from achieving herd immunity in any country. At the moment and for the foreseeable future prevention is still the best policy.
With a death rate as high as 16% amongst the population known to have become ill we'd be looking at around 1,120,000,000 people dying if most of the human population became ill. As there are a lot of non-symptomatic cases we know the actual death rate is not as high as that, but still, that's an awful lot of bodies to climb over to achieve herd immunity. Without vaccination we have never achieved herd immunity for anything.
If mumps has an R0 of 10 to 12, it is totally irrelevant.
There are a few countries with more than 4,000 diagnosed people per million population. Most people are asymptomatic - and the total number of infected people might be 50 to 100 time the hospital-admission diagnosed number, and we might only need 30 or 40% of the population immune to achieve herd immunity.
No one knows much about Covid-19, and you can find an article on the net to endorse any opinion.
Please find and post for me the scientific opinion that herd immunity is feasible and effective in the case of covid19.
As a person over 70 who has not been able to visit or be visited by her only grandchild, now 9 months old, I have no wish to have to rely on herd immunity to be able to safely travel to see her. I don't even think it will be safe for someone like me to rely on herd immunity to have a haircut or go to the dentist.
If we had relied on herd immunity to protect us from yellow fever, polio, measles, smallpox, we'd still have these diseases endemic in society and killing a percentage of us all the time. Ongoing deaths from seasonal influenza would be even higher than they are.
Worst case scenario, if covid19 turns out to be a continuously mutating virus then neither vaccinations nor herd immunity are going to protect us.
Mutation is a worrying possibility - there are many mutations of Covid-19, but I think and hope that immunity to one gives you immunity to all the current forms.
This article is about herd immunity - but uses a lot of words to give little enlightenment:
bobbybobbAmbassador
Seeing as there is no cure, treatment's or vaccine any lifting of restrictions are going to be very limited I should imagine. We cannot afford a second wave as it will plunge the economy into an even worse state and we will have a longer economical recovery if we have to face a second wave. It simply can't be allowed to happen and the Government know this. I can't wait to hear what the Government announcement will be later today. 🤔😊
I live in one of the smaller provinces of Canada. So far nearly all of our deaths have occurred in nursing homes. There have been over 1000 cases in the province and over 40 deaths. Lately the daily count of new cases has been dropping although apparently we have the highest number of tests performed daily per capita in the country. Nevertheless the only loosening of restrictions so far has been to allow us to once again go into our public parks and along public trails. Children are still being educated via distance, we can't go to a restaurant, get our hair cut, visit a dentist, physiotherapist or doctor. We are supposed to maintain at least 2 metres from one another and no groups of more than 5 people are allowed. Whenever anything is loosened the public health authorities have said they may wait up to a month to see what happens before loosening any more restrictions. This is going to be a process taking months not weeks.
On the plus side, no one was ever told they couldn't go out. We were encouraged to stay home as much as possible, limit trips for groceries, manage things like keeping surfaces clean, etc., that kind of thing, but also encouraged to go outside for exercise and fresh air, staying within our neighbourhood and maintaining our distance from others. No visiting.
Even the provinces with fewer cases, two with no deaths, are easing restrictions painfully slowly, and considering their options once cross border travel is allowed again; they will undoubtedly maintain the two week quarantine for anyone entering.
We are all waiting with nervousness what will happen in Quebec where children outside the major hotspot of Montreal are going back to school shortly. That province has the highest number of cases by far.
Yes, I think that it will be months of slowly easing restrictions and monitoring the outcomes and track and tracing any hot spots occurring. This would seem the sensible way to go ahead into the future. The cases in the UK are over the 31000 mark with up to a third of that total being deaths from Nursing's home and as the deaths in hospitals was coming down the rates in Nursing homes was going up. Now many measures are in place and much testing is being carried out. It is best to move at a snails pace than be hit with crisis after crisis. xx
It really is a worrying time and for every person who thinks 'lockdown' should be lifted there is someone else who thinks it should stay in place. He will not be able to please everyone, that's for sure, it's politics.
We decided after looking at the situation to 'stay at home' a couple of weeks before lockdown commenced and do not see our circumstances changing any time soon.
My hubby had a heart transplant eight years ago and so apart from stepping out into
the garden we are remaining indoors.
No matter what Boris decides I hope you all stay safe.
You too Patsy. x
One of my children is a doctor working on a covid 19 ward in Eire .
Many medical folk are predicting a second wave of this virus.
We are damned if we come out of lockdown and damned if we don't.
I hope that any breathing space(excuse pun all fellow knackered lungs) will be used to properly prepare and lessons learnt
I will be interested in what Boris comes up with, here in the US our very inept president should have been got rid of weeks ago. Who trusts anyone that advocates drinking bleach, or injecting sanitizers. Trump does not care about the everyday working person, he is about trump, trump, trump, fame and money. To me anyone who puts money over people sucks. I myself think there will be a second wave, viruses are tricky little buggers, what makes us think we can get ahead of them? No it is going to take staying alert, 6 ft apart or more, wearing masks and washing with soap and water. It has been proven by scientist here that someone who coughs hard without a mask, sprays the virus 12 ft. I for one am retired so do not need to get up and go to work, for which I consider myself blessed. I do protect myself the best way I can, stay home, only go for grocery's when I Have to, go out on my deck for some fresh air and sun, I am growing veg and herbs, so hope to be able to help feed myself in summer, and have enough to give to neighbors. Being born in 1942 in the UK I remember the war, I hated the air raid signal, then after the war So many things were on rationing for years. This is the way I view this virus, a war. We need someone like Churchill to lead us out, some one with guts and internal strength, a leader not a fabricator, the British at that time were not a herd, and look at where you have come in 75 years. Being an old Brit I am not inclined to roll over, or as we say here being a lemming!!! So keep your chins up, Do Not give up, we got thru 6 years of war, we can get thru a year of this bug. We just have to be careful, I do not watch the news, read the paper, worry or panic, just a waste of my good time. Remember Britain ruled the Largest Empire known to man, so we can rule ourselves, remember, All thing come to an end......I send my fellow Brits, love, hope, strength, peace and Big hugs......ex Brit/Limey, US citizen.....xxxx oooo
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