ARE WE ABOUT TO SEE A 2ND WAVE of CV–19 in the SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE?

[socrates_8]

Evening all...

Hoping that you are all doing well...

Guys, I really do not want to sound like an alarmist, but...

...It is an odd observation, when one notes the disproportionate rates of infection & fatalities, when one compares the Southern & Northern Hemispheres in relation to the affectations of CV–19, is it not?

In Australia, as of this writing, we have somewhere slightly less than 7,000 cases of CV-19, and possibly 83 related fatalities. NZ, has even less, and last count they were at 18 fatalities. Not to diminish a single numeral as unimportant of course...

The following article/s, may shed some light on why we are seeing these numbers amassed in the way that they are, as being one of the major contributing factors. If that theory does hold true, and we here in the Antipodes are about to relax our CV-19 Restrictions, we might well be placing ourselves directly in harm's way... as our cooler seasonal changes commence (?)

For all our sakes, naturally, I hope that I am mistaken, and that the continuation of Australian CV-19 precautions of Social Distancing might continue to keep this Genie in the bottle, for now...

However, announcements on recommencements of major Sporting Codes, and the screams for the needs of the mob for distractions, and for economy to be reset, (by the Smithian Invisible Hand), might well see a repeat of the Lombardy catastrophe witnessed in Italy.

Because of reasons such as these, where so much human life is at stake, we should insist our leaders apply the basis of the "Precautionary Principle" to this "wicked problem" that we are all confronted with at the present, in my view...

Everyone, is of course entitled to an opinion...

However, should we not be erring on the side of caution...?

Best wishes

Steve

mpn-mate.com/forum/posting....

[bruddery]

Good evening Steve. I’m with you on proceeding with caution. I was talking to my daughter on Central coast earlier and she was saying same thing she was saying they should keep borders closed ... you’ve been very lucky down there but you did all shut things down very fast !! Like you she doesn’t want things opening up too soon especially the borders.. ( she works in health and safety!!). Anyway keep safe.

Best wishes Janice

[socrates_8 in reply to bruddery]

Thanks Janice...

Yes, the real concern is quite simply that no one really knows too much about this virus at the moment. However, we have seen the spread of infections, and the great tragedy of loss of life within the Northern hemisphere, during what was you cooler season etc...

It is odd, how little by comparison our statistics are when compared with the north...

I am more concerned with the alleviation of Social Distancing (SD), and the impacts of businesses and sports recommencing their trades etc... May 28th the NRL Rugby League is set to restart, followed by the AFL, and no doubt others...

We might well be in for a very rough few months, as our leaders are set to relax many of these measures just as we are entering our winter months...

In any event, stay safe & well...

Best wishes

Steve

[Tico]

Good point steve, i was actually thinking the same thing when i heard on GMB ( a british morning programme) just how low Australia and especially New zealand are in terms of cases and as you say fatalities are. I would to be therefore erring on the side of caution. Warm wishes tina.🤗

[socrates_8 in reply to Tico]

Hey Tina...

I hope that you & your family are staying safe & well...

Thanks for your reply, and yes, it is a very real concern of mine, as or leaders are currently planning an easing of restrictions at a time when the flu is known to annually be at its worst etc...

I suppose that I have to trust and believe that our leaders are considering all aspects of CV–19, and not just the economic paradigm that alone will not save any of us...

Best wishes Tina...

Steve

[fee13]

New Zealand is still getting positive covid results from citizens returning from overseas. The concern also will be the amount of unrecorded illness, there will be plenty of people sick with covid that have not gone in for testing. So definitely keep the boarders closed. Hopefully mass gatherings will be held off as long as possible.

[socrates_8 in reply to fee13]

We dwell in vain hope I fear...

Stay safe & well...

Steve

[Pte82 in reply to socrates_8]

Being in the high risk group we take a proactive stance. The core supplements we use to focus on immune response to virus is D3, Zinc, Selenomethionine, D-Lenolate and liposomal vitamin C in addition to staying hydrated and maintaining gut health. Also wear a mask and goggles, practice social distancing, wash hands, wipe down all items including mail with alcohol wipes before it is brought in the house. The A/C system has a UV light.

[AP123AB]

Hi from the UK

I believe this is going to have what I call “The Joker”

Just as we start to get some confidence to venture out because our joke Government will tell us it’s ok the second wave will hit.

I noticed yesterday the many numbers of people out in comparison with each day for 5 weeks. Easter Bank Holiday was well respected, yesterday angered me because the unfortunate CCP VIRUS victims numbers have fallen FOR NOW?So it’s safe? NO STAY HOME

Come on World we have done the hardest part and please don’t allow another spread because the summer is coming.

[Jennytheb]

Thanks for you obs, I am getting bit frustrated in UK as they keep comparing countries' figures but there are many factors to consider and they are not like for like. For instance I know in OZ there are some more populated areas but compared with the size of the country everything is relative. BBC in particular keep saying why is Germany seeing fewer cases - the answer is their population is not that of the UK and neither is their land mass. Anyway, hope you are not right with this second phase but now Singapore is already on theirs, who knows what is around the corner. Take care!

[Hidden]

I can understand your concern as you approach winter over there (I'm in the UK). This recently came up on my Facebook page and the seasons are certainly a factor.

medium.com/@ra.hobday/coron...

Take care

[Hidden]

It seems as though Australia is continuing to quarantine any visitors in designated centers for two weeks

The numbers are low so contact tracing greater awareness and social distancing may prevent a big wave.

[socrates_8 in reply to Hidden]

Yes, but unfortunately, this virus apparently prefers spreading under cooler more winter-like conditions, (as per the articles I posted earlier). In Australia, NZ & and in the Southern hemisphere more particularly, we have only been having very small numbers of infections and fatalities by comparison to that of our Northern cousins...

Many are now theorising this is related to seasonal differences and the normal 'flu' contagion periods that exist globally...

Hence, my apprehensions as to why our Australian & NZ governments are choosing now to relax restrictions...

In Lombardy in Italy, they learned some rather harsh lessons at trying to keep the economy going at the great expense of loss of life, and for so many of the aged in particular... Lombardy was a 'Perfect Storm' in a sense because it was where circa 20% of Italy's aged populations reside.

Personally, I would prefer not to follow such examples...

Our Winter season is just starting...

Best wishes all...

Steve

[Hidden in reply to socrates_8]

Here in Germany there is huge pressure to lift the restrictions even faster. I would prefer they take it slower. But the reality is that we have to find a new way of living that sustains our economy our safety and one that the populus can live with. Many are fed up with the restrictions here in Germany we have even had demonstrations against them. That will get worse as people suffer financially and socially. if the restrictions are not lightened. Your right Italy but also Spain France and the UK have suffered immensely. In Germany we have had high numbers but far less deaths. However In Austria Poland Denmark Hungary Croatia Norway and other European countries the infection and death rate has been much lower for the share of population. Our governments are hopefully learning from each other as to what works and what doesn’t. In Asia Korea and Japan ( which has the highest elderly population on earth) both have freezing winters but equally did well with numbers

This is new virus unknown to us just four months ago with much to learn, if you recall it was just weeks ago we were ‘also’ being told that the virus would die out in the summer ?

[socrates_8 in reply to Hidden]

That's right Dovme... and that is actually the point that I am apparently struggling to make here...

There, (in the Northern hemisphere (Nh)), if the theory holds true, and as the seasons warm, you might notice a reduction in both infection & fatality rates, as suggested...

However, here, (in Southern hemisphere (Sh)), we are only now starting our Winter and Flu season, and that might also help to explain why our rates of infection and fatalities are so much lower...

My fear, as this Post has suggested, is that in the Sh we are just starting to relax our CV-19 Restrictions at a time when perhaps we ought not... ?

In any event, very best wishes to you & yours Dovme

Pls stay safe & well...

Steve

[Wyebird]

For the sake of the antipodes I hope a second wave doesn’t happen- keep safe

[socrates_8 in reply to Wyebird]

Me too...

Best wishes to you & yours...

Steve