CKD progression

[smellicusx13]

Hello folks. I’ve read around these threads that CKD rarely progresses to ESRD or stage 5 CKD? Is there some literature I can google regarding this? My nephrologist says that my labs are consistent with someone who is on stage 4 CKD with a GFR of 20. Thank you!

[Julesboz]

Hi there, here’s the NHS info on CKD which says that CKD can progress but that it’s uncommon (CKD only progresses to kidney failure in approx 1 in 50 cases):

nhs.uk/conditions/kidney-di...

Obviously this very much depends on the cause of your CKD and your diet and lifestyle.

[Margie5967 in reply to Julesboz]

Am I doing something wrong?

I keep trying to select these links that are on here and they never open for me.

[RickHow]

This is news to me. None of my 4 doctors have expressed such a thing to me. I would think this may be a bit misleading. I suppose if you are discovered to have CKD at say a stage 1 level the chances of progressing to stage 4 or ESRD. But if it is discovered at stage 4, it is more likely. But then you have to consider age. A lot of people are not found to have this disease until their 60's. Mid to late. The likely hood for them may be less that it would reach ESRD because their death would come from some other cause. Also you have to consider why the person has CKD. Is it caused by diabetes, or something, which can be treated to some degree, or is it actual kidney failure in which case ESRD is likely. We all grasp at hope or reasons to hope we will be fine. But there are too many variables.

[Julesboz in reply to RickHow]

Yes I agree with you, there are many variables to take into account with CKD. Funnily enough it was one of the first things my doctor told me when I was diagnosed (not to worry as it was unlikely I’d progress to kidney failure) and she pointed me to the NHS literature to back that up. And yes you’re right, your age, your level when you’re diagnosed, the cause of your CKD and what you do to halt the progress of the disease all has an effect.

[Cruze44]

Unfortunately, most people with kidney disease don't progress to end stage because they die of cardiovascular events before the actually reach ESRD. Well, maybe not most. But, renal disease DRAMATICALLY increases your chance for heart disease. There's an article in JAMA that documents the outcome of stage 3 kidney patients for a period of ten years. If I remember correctly 25% died during the follow up, 25% advanced to end stage, 25% remained stable at stage 3, and 25% actually improved.

But remember MANY of these cohorts had pre-exsisting conditions such as diabetes, and heart disorders. So a younger, more healthy person could most likely expect a much more favorable out come.