Interesting interview with Swedish Public Health Official on why Sweden never shut down:
Covid 19: View from Sweden : Interesting... - Cure Parkinson's
Covid 19: View from Sweden
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reedboat2
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It would be good to have a precis. Unlike many in lockdown with time on their hands, I am flat out at work. I got as far as "no evidence base for other measures". I would suggest 2 responses.
First, the EU conclusion that Sweden is one of 5 European countries failing to control the coronavirus outbreak (the UK, who this article is about, is another of the 5) theguardian.com/politics/20...
Second - view the evidence direct from John Hopkins - compare the graph of deaths for France, with a clear pattern of reduction, with the flat or rising graphs for the UK or Sweden.
worldometers.info/coronavirus/. Sweden is 10th in "deaths per million population" and had 90 new deaths yesterday.
Sweden may be a bit complacent, based on a later start to the problem. But of course, it may not be. Time will tell - but I wouldnt be rushing to brag.
Winnie- thanks for your reply, and for the information which you posted, which add important data to the discussion. I argued similarly against the opinions of Medical Dr Jeanmonod, whose contrarian views on this subject were posted on this forum a few weeks ago. At that time I dismissed the good Swiss doctor’s post on the grounds that he’s a Neurologist, not an immunologist. Now here’s Johan Giesecke, Swedish Professor Emeritus in Immunology, with an in depth discussion, who comes to roughly the same conclusions. It’s a 35 minute interview and I confess to being one of those who, as you mentioned, has time on his hands, as I’ve listened to it a couple of times. When you get a chance, I encourage you to hear the whole thing, as I found it quite fascinating. The interviewer is quite well informed, and presses Giesecke pretty hard. They get into the practical, as well as ethical aspects of what the lockdowns are about, as well as the inherent difficulties in “re-opening”, as are occurring right now. At this moment I find myself at the very center of the debate, as I own a business which has to do with outdoor recreation and tourism. I’m currently under lockdown, and the rules under which I will be obliged to operate in the coming weeks and months are changing daily, as Health Departments of the State and County in which I live grapple with the issues of balancing public health vs economic well being. To be honest I wish I were retired, and like it or not, pretty soon may well be.
Yes, it is definitely too early to tell the outcome. All countries are in different stages, and the statistics is not reliable to do comparison between countries. E.g. for some countries the reported number of deaths just counts deaths reported from hospitals, while from others it includes all deaths related to Covid-19 (which is how it is done in e.g. Sweden where almost 50% comes from care homes).
The strategy in Sweden has so far been successful to keep it in a level so that it does not exceed the capacity in the hospitals. But it has totally failed to protect the elderly from the virus. Especially in home care, care homes and in areas with many immigrants.
There are also cultural differences to take into account to the strategy. In Sweden most people follow the recommendations, that might not be the case in other places where more strict government and control is needed.
For once in a long, long time I agree with WP.
Sweden is in serious trouble on this virus with a 12.5% mortality rate in relationship to their confirmed cases. Yes,, better than the UK with a 15% mortality, but nothing to brag about especially with a death rate per 1 million of about 300 (actually 7th among major countries WP).
Speaking of the UK, is BJ serious about re-opening? I guess he still thinks "herd immunity" will work. Nothing surprises me anymore in trying to control this virus.
Sharon
Is herd immunity not possible? If the US is quarter of the way there then this implies maybe 250k deaths minimum. Not sure about Sweden but this does seem to be their pursuit.
I think there is a good chance there is herd immunity but no one knows for sure and really that is the main problem - we still don't know enough about this virus. The thing about Sweden is not that their numbers are low but that they are not higher considering they are not in lockdown (that points to at least some herd immunity). If their bet on herd immunity is correct their numbers should start to decrease, but once again we won't know until more time has passed. They are betting on more dying now to have less die later. Until more time has passed we won't know. The places doing the best are islands - Taiwan, New Zealand where they are stopping it but that is harder in a larger or not contained country. Ideally as a world we should have all jumped on stopping this in the early stages, but we didn't.
The report out of Los Alamos Lab yesterday should give anyone who thinks "herd immunity is possible" with this extremely toxic virus a severe migraine headache.
Sweden's death rate per capita per 1 million is about double the US so perhaps you are correct about their strategy. I honestly don't think they know what they are doing. They have a socialistic "universal" system similar to the UK. If you love the "universal" concept of delivery, then the UK and Sweden are your poster boys and girls.
Unfortunately, with this toxic virus, both systems leave a lot to be desired unless you are not looking at the numbers.
Sharon
Thank you for the response, both of you. I think Swedens death rate is explained at least in part by how they failed at protecting the elderly rather than an overrun health system. Other than that it appears they will be one of the first to hit herd immunity if such a thing is possible whether it be genious or just a unintended benefit for being lethargic.
That report is very discouraging if we have had another major mutation already. It will be interesting to see if it was enough of a change to allow subsequent infections. We could be royally screwed no matter how we approach it...hunkered down waiting on a vaccine or letting it blow through trying to get herd immunity could be equally futile.
"it appears they will be one of the first to hit herd immunity if such a thing is possible whether it be genious or just a unintended benefit for being lethargic."
Don't bet on it. Look at the data for Sweden. Do you see something I don't see? Tell me.
Besides, if you actually understood the Los Alamos Lab report, you would realize "herd immunity" from this virus is a fantasy. So why do you keep on using the term? I don't get it.
This virus hasn't begun to play out except in bogus non-data driven China. Wonder why?
Sharon
I do see the Los alamos report talking about a mutation. Do we know for sure that means reinfection is possible?
What are you saying about China? ...We don't know their true numbers so we cannot draw any conclusions.
"We don't know their true numbers so we cannot draw any conclusions."
Come on. Let's drill down for just a moment.
If we assume from the Los Alamos report that the strain prevalent in Wuhan was identical to Italy's, then we also must assume that the mortality rate was the same per capita given 1) the same virus strain, 2) the more ACE2 prevalence in Wuhan than in Italy, and 3) roughly the same population in Wuhan and surrounding Hubei province as compared to Milan and northern Italy. Add in 4) the lock down of all major cities in China including Beijing, and 5) the 1.7 billion people living in China.
Then, even adjusting for the 5 million Chinese living in northern Italy, Italy's open door policy towards China until it became obvious they were killing them, and the aging population of Italy versus China, we should see somewhere around a 10x increase in mortality in Wuhan and Hubei province, let alone all of China.
In raw numbers, it means China should have reported at a minimum 30,000 deaths to date, not 4,600. Even if it is only for Hubei.
Even 1% of 1.7 billion is a astronomical death total. Even .001%. Even 0001%.
It is a farce, and yes, we can conclude China is a farce.
Sharon
"Do we know for sure that means reinfection is possible?"
I wouldn't bet against it. Looking for "sure" things with his virus is a fool's game.
They haven't had to shut down businesses, and wreck havoc on normal life. In the end, perhaps in a year, I feel they will have the same number of deaths, but will not have another huge outbreak. I believe they are mostly done......and they didn't destroy their economy.
I hope for their sake you are correct. Doubtful but possible.
If you track Sweden's per capita death rate (per 1 million) it is still climbing from a low of below 200 a month ago to a current level of approximately 350.
Personally, I consider this steady climb somewhat disturbing given their "open" policy. Remember also, Sweden is a small country of 10 million and geographically basically an island (peninsula) country bordered primarily by Norway and very rural, remote Finland to the north. This type of dramatic increase shouldn't happen there (geographically speaking).
Finally, we are getting "2nd wave" reports from such places as Wuhan China (of all places) that suggest this toxic virus can manipulate itself not only via 1) lung infections, but 2) clotting of the blood. Therefore, 2nd wave infections remain a real possibility anywhere.
Sharon
Thanks for sharing.
I listened to entire discussion. Most interesting takeaway, hand washing and safe distance still the rule. I would like to hear more of his political view just brushed over.
Interesting interview reed boat.
independent.co.uk/news/worl...
This short article outlines another necessity
“state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said health officials were constantly reviewing evidence on the effectiveness of the strategy.....“I think the most important thing all the time is to try to do it as well as you can, with the knowledge we have and the tools you have in place. And to be humble all the time because you may have to change.”
Looks like we're going to learn more soon from an experiment with one of the largest nations. Trump has opted for culling Americans to boost his election prospects and pretty much said so in so many words. I'm going to go out on a limb here. His prediction that US deaths could be limited to 80000 won't last the weekend.
Indeed at a predicted 3000 a day he could add another 80000 in a month. At least in Vietnam they could have collected a purple heart for their sacrifice for the USA
It’s heartbreaking. Our oldest and most vulnerable citizens are being sacrificed. The outbreaks are now in the meat packing plants and prisons of Trump’s heartland. The next 6 months on this side of the pond are likely to be pretty rough.
Winnie - here’s an article by a historian, Heather Cox Richardson, with an interesting perspective. Her blog post dated May 4, 2020 pertains directly to the numbers which you mentioned.
Not sure it is possible to adopt the couldn't-care-less, let's-ignore-all-the-evidence approach which those darling Swedes take anywhere but in Sweden!
The main effect of Trump's culling is in the red-neck Republican states, most notably Georgia so the Darwinian self-removal of all those Trump supporters who voted for that governor from the gene pool could be a silver lining to all of this. Pity that it will cull Democrats as well even if in smaller numbers.
But it should provide the impetus to EVERYONE to be a party activist to get rid of Trump and any senator (or congressman) who voted to retain him in office after the impeachment!
Thanks. Interesting.
We have something of an issue in the UK. Our PM is not as deliberately cavalier or callous as Trump, and his brush with death by Covid19 has surely moderated his populist tendencies, but there is pressure to unlock. The first is peer pressure as the rest of Europe cautiously ease restrictions (here in France from May 11th). The second is financial pressure as the excellent UK government income support schemes are victims of their own success, and look set to add £50bn debt to an already over-borrowed government by the end of June.
But its not like the USA. 80%-90% of the population support the lockdown and oppose reopening restaurants and theatres (I have good friends who run a bar, and this is heartbreaking for them). Any easing will still be a nationally coordinated restricted gradual affair.
I believe 70% of Americans oppose re-opening restaurants and other commerce, so if the deaths mount up, it may be Trump has shot himself in the foot with this policy. But of course, that will be no comfort to the dead Americans and their families
I see that article referred to Trumps estimate of US deaths increasing to 100,000 and being dated 4 May. As of 5 May the officially reported deaths are 72271, with 2350 of those being reported yesterday. At that rate it is going to take less than 2 weeks to reach 100,000. It may well be that African nations eventually exceed these numbers, but this is a leading Western economy. It was not so long ago that POTUS predicted "very few deaths", and even after setting up the task force and acknowledging the crisis, hoped to keep deaths below 60,000. China? South Korea? Singapore? Australia? New Zealand? And returning to the topic of this post, most of Europe, particularly Eastern Europe (excluding Bulgaria) who locked down early - Sweden had 85 new deaths yesterday and there is no sign their epidemic has peaked
And I am constantly reminded of the personal aspect of this. My brother works in a care home, and lost one of his people to Covid19 this week. 'Tash, who is a good friend and comes to all the rugby with her husband Steve, is struggling to breath with it today. Big numbers distract from the fact these are people and they are dieing.
WP
Try to do the simple math.
The EU major core + UK is in a far worse situation than USA, and have been from the start. Your deaths per 1 million per capita are far worse in every major country in the core. In order: Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, France, all double (twice) the USA rate per capita.
You can spread your politics around if you want to get political to every EU country prime minister and especially your miserable UK PM.
"China"? They caused the problem. About time to accept reality.
Sharon
Oh Sharon.
After the Sinemet pharmacokinetics debacle I thought you'd steer clear of sums. Unlike Sinemet which was first grade stuff, this one is more complicated, and really needs calculus. But lets dumb it down
You are presumably making "Le grand Con"'s point that the USA has a population of 230 million against which to set the carnage of 75000 deaths. China has 1.3bn, less than 5000 deaths, and none for 5 days (USA 10,000 over the same period). And China got it first. I know, I know, full of Commies and unreliable data. How about New Zealand? Too left wing? Australia, with its very own 'strine Trump as right wing populist leader? It's not about politics - but comparative national responses to an international pandemic. The USA is not doing well - and so is not a model I would want France to follow.
Europe has not done very well compared with New Zealand, Australia, Singapore, South Korea, China and others. But it is doing better than the USA. The magic number is not deaths today. This is a journey not a destination. The magic number is rate of change of deaths (and new cases) per day. Hence calculus and the shape of logarithmic scale charts. But I said I'd keep it simple for you
Instead look at the bar charts of daily deaths on worldometers.info/coronavir...?
The chart for France looks like a pointy witches hat. The chart for the USA like a steep sloped beach (think Normandy 1945). And if the New York Times leak is to be believed there is another steep slope ahead taking daily deaths to 3000.
So, France has a population of about 1/5th of the USA (although more densely packed into a much smaller area). Its daily deaths are around 260 - and falling. Let's ignore falling and project 100 days to the end of July level. Another 26000 - taking France to a horrific 50,000.
The USA with its Normandy landings is 2300 - and rising. Lets ignore rising and project 100days to the end of July level. Another 230,000 - taking the USA to an even more horrific 300,000.
Want to project 200 days?
Want to take account of rising and falling?
And as I wrote before. These are people - not numbers
Coming from one of the people who claimed this virus is "no big deal"...repeatedly to me, it is refreshing to see your complete change in perspective. Glad you finally realized the seriousness of this toxic virus.
Be safe.
Sharon
No Sharon. I know you are incapable of finding any post from me that it's no big deal. I doubted it was a weaponised laboratory made virus as you claimed to have inside knowledge of. Even Pompeo doesn't think that
You stay safe too
I see the one in charge of the USA has revised his prediction up to 95000 or more.
The WTP prediction is more. With 80000 reached this weekend, 95000 could easily be reached by next weekend, and I don't rate the idea they will then just stop and the virus go away. So definitely more. Still, at least we can blame China and feel good about it. As long as we don't blame China too much and hurt the stock market.
Back on topic I see Sweden recorded 135 deaths yesterday and is on a fast accelerating trend. The boring solutions seem to work. Still no evidence for the fun ones. China recorded one new case.
I agree with Sweden's approach. Don't destroy business and lives. My son just opened his 3rd restaurant in California. He knew that St. Patrick's Day would bring great business at all three businesses, an bought $20,000 worth of food in preparation. The day before St. Patrick's day, he shut down. I don't think he will ever be able to re-open. He has a great patio section for outdoor dining in the warm weather, but, if he ever opens, he will not be able to maintain it in the fall and winter. This represents 20 years of his life, He is only one example.
The US Government seems unable or unwilling to forge a cohesive national response to pandemic. Thus we’re taking the Swedish approach more or less by default. As to economic effects, I fear we’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg. The hospitality, leisure and tourism sectors are now being hit the hardest. Your son has the advantage of being young enough to start over when this crisis eventually resolves, which might take a couple years. As to banking on herd immunity, that is not a good bet. The 1919 flu infected 2/3 of the world and killed 50 million. Today’s world population is 5x that of 1919. At that ratio the loss of human life and the damage to world economies would be catastrophic. We can and must do better.
The 1918 flu was at a different time, when people weren't as aware of sanitation. Do you think that might have influenced the outcome?
I doubt it. Herd immunity is what it is. Here’s another article I just got on the subject:
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