Have a predilection for Race Prediction, any... - Bridge to 10K

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Have a predilection for Race Prediction, anyone?

ktsok profile image
19 Replies

The Garmin FR235 has a ‘race predictor’ function. This tells you how fast it thinks you can run a 5k, 10k, half marathon and full marathon. It is based on your aerobic fitness, which is shown as a VO2 max estimate.

(Note the words ‘prediction’ and ‘estimate’).

VO2 max is the maximum amount of oxygen (in mm) that you can consume per minute per kilogram of body weight at your maximum performance.

(Note: ‘can’ consume (as opposed to ‘do’ consume), and ‘maximum performance’. Let’s add ‘per minute’ in there as well).

The Garmin blurb says ‘this projection also presumes you have completed the proper training for the race’. It doesn’t say what the proper training is, but I’m guess Couch to 5k and a month of consolidation with the odd smoothie probably doesn’t cut it.

(Note: ‘presumes’).

What all of this adds up to, for me, is a kind of Utopian ‘potential’. I think this little gadget is telling me that if I ate, slept and trained like a professional athlete, ie, had ice baths, a personal trainer and personal masseuse (be happy to try that one), dietician, cross-trained, stayed injury free, etc... I might just be able to run a 5k in 24’12”.

What it means right now, is that 62.5kg of me can run at that pace for 1 minute. Not 24 of them, though. And I am afraid that my training, if one could call it that, will always veer toward the improper side.

But if my body was in the right hands, people!!!

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ktsok profile image
ktsok
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19 Replies
Couchpotato2 profile image
Couchpotato2

Well it’s good to know that you could possibly do that or do that in the future! Also under 4 hours marathon, woohoo

ktsok profile image
ktsok in reply toCouchpotato2

As if. My school reports were peppered with the word ‘potential’. Still waiting to fulfil it 😂

Couchpotato2 profile image
Couchpotato2 in reply toktsok

Oh gosh, flash back!! Me too.

Oldfloss profile image
OldflossAdministratorGraduate10

It's in your hands..or feet..and that's just perfect!

Katnap profile image
KatnapGraduate10

It's like a school report! 😁 'must try harder' or 'could do better'

😸 Katnap 😸

ktsok profile image
ktsok in reply toKatnap

That’s exactly it! Although these days I’m kind of ok with what I COULD do (but will never ever do lol)

E27M14 profile image
E27M14Graduate10

Haha, mine says I “could” do 5k in 30 minutes. I’m hoping to make that reality one day, but I think it is a long way off and I need to lose that extra 2 stone first!!

ktsok profile image
ktsok in reply toE27M14

Hmmm... but it’s basing your prediction on your current weight! If you lost a couple of stones no doubt your predicted time would also reduce..?

Jell6 profile image
Jell6Graduate10

Nothing like having a target though 😊

ktsok profile image
ktsok in reply toJell6

I need a longbow for that one GaJelle

Jell6 profile image
Jell6Graduate10

🏹, best I can do.

ktsok profile image
ktsok in reply toJell6

👌

Lordi profile image
LordiGraduate10

I think you are treating your Garmin's estimates with the requisite touch of "if only" that they deserve! ☺ I have the FR235 too and often dial-up the Race Predictor screen for a bit of a chuckle ;-) There is no way I could ever imagine running any of the times it helpfully predicts! It's a nice feeling to know my watch thinks so highly of my running potential however! Seriously though, (in my case anyway) maybe the algorithm doesn't take sufficient account of age. i.e. a good VO2 max is no good if paired with a decrepit set of pins etc? Good fun though!

ktsok profile image
ktsok in reply toLordi

Our watches love us... or hate us lol!

The VO2 max does take into account your age and gender... and the race predictor is based on the VO2... so age is factored in.

I suspect that the predicted times are accurate in terms of our aerobic capacity - but not in terms of our legs, core strength, technique, mental strength, etc. However, those things can be improved substantially with training - IF we wanted to put that sort of effort in.

I look at the likes of Laura Muir and longer distance athletes and see the kind of pain and effort they go through. The predicted race times aren’t looking at us going a nice conversational pace!

It’s kind of nice to think that we could do those sorts of times if we were willing to put in the effort!

Lordi profile image
LordiGraduate10 in reply toktsok

Well sure, looked at it like that then they might be possible. It's just I don't even want to think about the pain involved etc! ;-) It could also be that once we "learn to run" and can toddle along for miles without too much grief we can get a tad too comfortable with just leisurely wombling/bimbling? I'm guilty as charged!

ktsok profile image
ktsok in reply toLordi

For sure. I’m still at that stage of wanting to get comfortable running longer distances vs wanting to keep to a faster pace... I think your pace does increase gradually but all the advice seems to be that to get faster, more effort (speed work, hills) needs to be put in! Ouch!!!

cheekychipmunks profile image
cheekychipmunksGraduate10

I saw that on mine ktsok. I don’t know what runner’s wrist it thinks it on! Either that or it’s telling me to stop snailing around and get a ripple on. Either way, the predictions are times I’d only see in my dreams! 🤣😅🙄

ktsok profile image
ktsok in reply tocheekychipmunks

See my reply to Lordi above, cheeky. I think those times are in you... it just depends how much pain you are prepared to endure!

cheekychipmunks profile image
cheekychipmunksGraduate10 in reply toktsok

I can already answer that question. None!

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