The Garmin FR235 has a ‘race predictor’ function. This tells you how fast it thinks you can run a 5k, 10k, half marathon and full marathon. It is based on your aerobic fitness, which is shown as a VO2 max estimate.
(Note the words ‘prediction’ and ‘estimate’).
VO2 max is the maximum amount of oxygen (in mm) that you can consume per minute per kilogram of body weight at your maximum performance.
(Note: ‘can’ consume (as opposed to ‘do’ consume), and ‘maximum performance’. Let’s add ‘per minute’ in there as well).
The Garmin blurb says ‘this projection also presumes you have completed the proper training for the race’. It doesn’t say what the proper training is, but I’m guess Couch to 5k and a month of consolidation with the odd smoothie probably doesn’t cut it.
(Note: ‘presumes’).
What all of this adds up to, for me, is a kind of Utopian ‘potential’. I think this little gadget is telling me that if I ate, slept and trained like a professional athlete, ie, had ice baths, a personal trainer and personal masseuse (be happy to try that one), dietician, cross-trained, stayed injury free, etc... I might just be able to run a 5k in 24’12”.
What it means right now, is that 62.5kg of me can run at that pace for 1 minute. Not 24 of them, though. And I am afraid that my training, if one could call it that, will always veer toward the improper side.
But if my body was in the right hands, people!!!
Written by
ktsok
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Haha, mine says I “could” do 5k in 30 minutes. I’m hoping to make that reality one day, but I think it is a long way off and I need to lose that extra 2 stone first!!
I think you are treating your Garmin's estimates with the requisite touch of "if only" that they deserve! ☺ I have the FR235 too and often dial-up the Race Predictor screen for a bit of a chuckle There is no way I could ever imagine running any of the times it helpfully predicts! It's a nice feeling to know my watch thinks so highly of my running potential however! Seriously though, (in my case anyway) maybe the algorithm doesn't take sufficient account of age. i.e. a good VO2 max is no good if paired with a decrepit set of pins etc? Good fun though!
The VO2 max does take into account your age and gender... and the race predictor is based on the VO2... so age is factored in.
I suspect that the predicted times are accurate in terms of our aerobic capacity - but not in terms of our legs, core strength, technique, mental strength, etc. However, those things can be improved substantially with training - IF we wanted to put that sort of effort in.
I look at the likes of Laura Muir and longer distance athletes and see the kind of pain and effort they go through. The predicted race times aren’t looking at us going a nice conversational pace!
It’s kind of nice to think that we could do those sorts of times if we were willing to put in the effort!
Well sure, looked at it like that then they might be possible. It's just I don't even want to think about the pain involved etc! It could also be that once we "learn to run" and can toddle along for miles without too much grief we can get a tad too comfortable with just leisurely wombling/bimbling? I'm guilty as charged!
For sure. I’m still at that stage of wanting to get comfortable running longer distances vs wanting to keep to a faster pace... I think your pace does increase gradually but all the advice seems to be that to get faster, more effort (speed work, hills) needs to be put in! Ouch!!!
I saw that on mine ktsok. I don’t know what runner’s wrist it thinks it on! Either that or it’s telling me to stop snailing around and get a ripple on. Either way, the predictions are times I’d only see in my dreams! 🤣😅🙄
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