Here, scientists from the University of Oxford and the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in Wallingford show that a gradual strategy with two discrete releases of subgroups of the quarantined population would be optimal for society as a whole to minimize deaths while protecting the economy.
“We find that ending quarantine for the entire population simultaneously is a high-risk strategy, and that a gradual re-integration approach would be more reliable,” write the authors.
Disclaimer. I have no idea if this is, or related to, the strategy or not, of the UK Gov's "We are following the science."
I wince when i hear that phrase.. it basically means we are dancing in the dark and hoping not to fall over the chairs....
I have to agree with you somewhat. The Gov refuse to reveal who the SAGE members are, what qualifications they have or what fields that they are supposed to be experts in nor the ratio of those members that disagree with certain elements of the advice. That Gov policy does not lend any confidence at all, they can be cherry picking any of the advice that they receive to suit their own ends and we would never know. Hardly a democratic process in my book.
Hello 2greys
That was an interesting article.
Meanwhile, I was sad to read on your bio that you have had Covid, but thrilled that you found your own customised treatment route and are in recovery. I do hope you are feeling better now. I also note the fact that the hospital have left you to it in terms of what is happening to your lung and lowered lung function . That must be alarming but you always display so much calm and controlled bravery. I hope things start to improve for you soon. I love the way you raised your lung function with exercise initially.
Thank you for your thought provoking posts and best wishes.
Just a humble opinion. We have only just reached the pre lockdown levels from the first wave which in some areas of the north are still at high levels due to being behind London by a number of weeks. The first wave in many ways is still here. Personally due to the recent events all over the UK and the actions of some over the warm weather we will by the end of June be facing a decision to go into some form of lockdown again. The track and trace system will not be fully operational until August at the earliest and the telephone app is still not functioning correctly. I cannot see any light at the end of the tunnel yet.
I have to agree with you. There are now reports of a rising number of new infections in the US, since there has been a relaxing of their lockdown. My worry is that should the level of new infections rise in the UK will be just how fast the Gov will take to react. If it is anything like at the beginning of the epidemic, then we are facing another disaster, one that will ultimately cost a lot of lives.
“We find that ending quarantine for the entire population simultaneously is a high-risk strategy, and that a gradual re-integration approach would be more reliable,” write the authors.
I would go along with that, based on what the non shielders did at the beaches the other week.
There is also the possibility of the virus mutating. I feel that may explain why some high risk patients survive without invasive treatment. Other people get Covid-9 very severely and die.
Cleaning materials for COVID-19
