It's not down to luck!

Two things which have started to irk me :D - and I'm as guilty as anyone! And they irk me because I think they [unintentionally] make the task seem all the more daunting for someone just starting out on this path to freedom.

The first is posts from people just starting out on day one with half a dozen replies saying 'good luck' (or words to that effect). This is a very natural reaction, but is it the right one?

The second is reports comparing different methods of quitting which state the 'chances' of methods X are xx% compared with method Y at yy% etc.

These both suggest [especially the second] that there is some random element determining success or failure which is beyond the control of the individual - and looking at the 'chances' of success six months after quitting makes pretty dismal reading (e.g. the best reported 'chance' for Champix users still being quit after six months is a little under one in four).

The point I'm trying to make, perhaps not very well, is that these success rates are for the 'quitting population' as a whole, but as individuals we can't be 25% successful; we either fail (0% successful) or succeed (100% successful) - it's binary, back and white, no in-between or shades of grey. Also, as individuals, our success or failure is always within our complete control. Chance and luck just don't enter into it.

4 Replies

  • Its a platitude to say good luck but there is some truth in it.

    If life throws some big pile of crap at you in the early days of quitting it can make it harder to maintain your resolve.That's all, yes it might be random and no it doesn't mean you will fail if you get bad luck but external influences can have a bearing on maintaining the will power to make it through the stages of physical withdrawal.

    That said I totally understand where you are coming from and felt the same way for a long time.

  • I take the point Nic, but I'm thinking about how the message gets interpreted. For me this quit is different because I'd like to think it's an 'educated' quit. My first serious [and ultimately unsuccessful] quit was far less educated and looking at the statistics frankly filled me with panic!

    Once the relatively short physical withdrawal period is over, we'll all have good days and bad days (or lucky days and unlucky days), just like we did when we were smoking. But we always have two choices as far as smoking is concerned - to virtually guarantee failure, just one; to absolutely guarantee success, just none.

  • its not down to luck

    Hello an Egg is an Egg is....:-

    Statistics show that there is not one successful self help group which is a statistical success story. Do these facts say that none of the participants succeed of course not. Success can't be measured no matter what yard stick you use, your success could well be my failure and vis versa. It's a personal thing. The worse thing that happened to society was that the "bean counters" came across pencil and paper and bombarded the rest of us with meaning less information in an attempt to prove their statistics correct.


  • Hi Egg

    I have thought exactly the same thing in the past and I believe we make our own luck in this situation.

    Hence I usually say I wish you all the strength for your quit....makes more sense to me



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