Any ideas on Covid risks folks?

[Ovingite]

I'm sure many of you will have seen the research paper issued by Blood Cancer UK (How dangerous is Covid-19 for people with blood cancer?) along with myriads of other data on Covid. According to the paper, as I am male, 70+, ET etc my chance of surviving a serious Covid infection / hospitalisation is about 1 in 2. Not good news, but I can live with that (no pun intended!) given that I have no option.

Where I struggle is that the current vaccines (I had Pfizer) are supposed to significantly reduce the chance of serious infection and hospitalisation and the amount of virus in circulation appears to be diminishing quite quickly. So taking all 3 of these factors together, where does that leave us? What is the real level of risk that we face?

As I see it, the real risk is probably something like the sum of:

Level of virus in circulation x Protection level from vaccine x Survival rate

but how do you translate that into something meaningful and usable?

Any thoughts would be gratefully received.

Stay safe and keep smiling

John

[friendofpiglet]

Please don't go there!

You are trying to evaluate risk from a number of factors where that number of factors is unknown. How about factoring in the levels of protection imposed by government then the levels of protection we adopt for ourselves etc. etc. None of these have a useable unit so any calculation is meaningless.

If our government were to evaluate the trends to date so as to predict the effects of future action, then reopening schools and universities would appear to be total madness.

Andy

[Ovingite in reply to friendofpiglet]

Hi Andy,The formula thing was a bit tongue in cheek, but the real question is 'how can you make sense of all the various components to assess the realistic risk?' If we just followed the 1 in 2 survival rate we would probably never set foot out of the house. Maybe it's an unanswerable question.

John

[katiewalsh]

Hi. Can you please tell me where to find this study? I haven’t seen it and since I have many “co-morbidities” as my docs like to say, and I turn 70 in April, I’d really like to read the study. Thanks Katie

[Ovingite in reply to katiewalsh]

Hi KatyUse this link for the overview and follow the embedded red link for the research paper

bloodcancer.org.uk/news/how...

[katiewalsh in reply to Ovingite]

Thank you. I also have a separate immune deficiency where my body doesn’t make its own antibodies and the vaccine isn’t expected to help me so after reading this I know I have to be much more careful. Katie

[Tertia3 in reply to Ovingite]

Interesting report. Thanks for posting John. I hadn't come across it either.

[mhos61]

Hi John.

I agree with Andy.

I don’t think there’s an answer to your question, other than continue to apply the current safety measures to avoid getting Covid in the first place. As more data comes in with regards to blood cancers and Covid risks, we may then get a better picture.

It’s quite difficult to assess risk for other cohorts too. For example, I have Asian friends who got Covid, the husband (72) has diabetes and their daughter is on kidney dialysis awaiting a second kidney transplant. They were considered ‘high risk’ for Covid based on their ethnicity and comorbidities, yet they had mild symptoms and survived without any hospital intervention.

Personally, I’m very optimistic with the encouraging treatment interventions for Covid, which we didn’t have early on. This has been highlighted for us recently, when friends of ours developed moderate to severe Covid, both had severe breathing issues and were hospitalised for a little over two weeks. Here again, the wife has secondary progressive MS, yet she didn’t need as much medical intervention as her ‘healthier’ husband, who in the course of his treatment had to be taken to ICU for CPAP. The only risk factor he had was his BMI which would put him in the obese category. I’m delighted to say, they are both now at home and recovering well. Had they got Covid in the early days, I think the outcome may well have been different.

What I’m trying to say is, we don’t know enough about Covid to necessarily determine individual risk or translate data into anything too meaningful yet, but we are certainly in a better place with regards to vaccines and treatment intervention, so for now just keep remaining cautious, but definitely optimistic. Xx

[Ovingite in reply to mhos61]

Thanks Mary. I posted more in hope than expectation that someone would have some new insight into how to assess our risk.However I did see an article on Sky news website this morning that the Pfizer vaccine has been proved 95.8% effective at preventing illness and 98.9% reduction in hospitalisation and death (per Israeli research) which is very good news indeed.

Take care and stay safe

John

[mhos61 in reply to Ovingite]

Some of our more medically knowledgeable contributors may well be able to offer more insight.

Great news on Pfizer vaccine too! X

[JediReject]

Hi John, , you pose a good question but as others have pointed up and in my limited experience there's no formula to assess individual risk with too many variables the main one being how Covid affects folk so randomly. A couple of examples in my family are my Bro and Sis in law one 72 with COPD and the other a smoker with only one lung. Both got it but only mildly which was good news for them. I truly feared for them.

The other is my Dad 85 got it shopping locally in a couple of small stores and was well under the weather for 2-3 weeks at home but has recovered quite well. As he was at my Sisters for Christmas dinner he very likely gave it to her partner 62 and in good health but he suffered far worse and is still feeling breathless 6 weeks on and has been for chest xrays. I find this baffling.

Obviously you have to weigh up known factors that affect you then decide what level of risk or exposure you're happy with going about your daily business but without becoming a hermit.

Overall I think we're moving in the right direction but compromised as we are will need to reduce or manage our risk for many months or even years to come in my view.

Regards -Chris

[Ovingite in reply to JediReject]

Thanks Chris,You are right - there definitely seems to be an element of chance in who gets it and how badly. On the positive side, there is growing evidence that lockdown and the vaccines are having a significant effect in bringing this virus under control, so hopefully we will move into a new normal fairly soon

Take care

John

[JediReject in reply to Ovingite]

True to a degree I'd say John but though not wishing to be negative or doom and gloom (and failing!) I'm a tad concerned over the emergence of these new Covid variants vs the Vaccine esp the Oxford AZ that I've had recently which in its current form may not be sufficient to ward them off . . .,But clearly I'm not a virologist if that's the term. Time will reveal the bottom line. Chris

[Ovingite in reply to JediReject]

I saw something recently (cannot remember where) that said there had been no hospitalisation of people who've had the AZ jab. It was important to me as my wife had the AZ as they wouldn't give her Pfizer (penecillin allergy 50 yrs ago!)John

[Susana7]

Hi John, the Blood Cancer U.K. blog and subsequent letter from Prof Harrison were really useful to trigger GPs to put MPN sufferers in the CEV list, if they had not done so already. The article does clearly state that the 34% chance of dying attributed to someone with blood cancer is conditional on having been unwell enough to go to hospital in the first place. Since vaccines like the Pfizer reduce the risk of serious illness by 97% after 2 doses (and 67% 3 weeks after the first dose), the mortality risk is very greatly reduced. Regardless, I plan to continue wearing masks, disinfecting hands, and keeping social distance for the foreseeable future. All the best, Susana

[Ovingite in reply to Susana7]

Same here. I think it's become so embedded in the way we currently are that it would seem very strange to drop the sanitising and distancing - but I won't be sorry to see masks disappear as an everyday necessityJohn

[Paul_1971 in reply to Ovingite]

Hopefully our approach to 'hygiene' has improved through this.

It always amazes me that hand wash flew off the selves in the early days, didnt people wash their hands before?

Im sure we have all heard the stories of what an old fashioned bowl of peanuts left out on the bar in a pub can contain....ew..

[Ovingite in reply to Paul_1971]

Yes indeed. I recall seeing a report on shopping hygiene (possibly Which?) that tested shipping trolley / basket handles and found about 70% showed traces of fecal matter. Ugh!

[Paul_1971 in reply to Ovingite]

I know, gross aren't we really lol.

the amount of chaps who don't wash their hands in the toilet on a night out is appalling.

[katiewalsh in reply to Susana7]

Hi can you please tell me where I can find the article that states 34% risk of dying? I’m in the USA & our ASH organization & my MPN expert states we have a very high risk of dying but doesn’t quantify it. 34% sounds better to me than very high. And I’m another recent post here someone said it’s 50%. So I’d very much appreciate knowing how to find the information you give here. Thanks! Katie

[katiewalsh in reply to Susana7]

Hi. I just found the site, thank you. Katie

[Runner999]

You have completely missed out the risk of being hospitalised if you contract CV19 - which is yet another unknown- probably the main one in the context you raise.

Just like the rest of the population many of us will be contracting the virus with no symptoms, very mild illness at home or quite poorly at home.

No tests in UK, but I was mildly ill (weirdest back pain and slept for most of 4 days) after known exposure over 7 days in a ski hotel last March. Out of 100 people using one dining room and bar every evening - 3 hospitalised, 2 recovered from ICU (the oldest and the fattest!) , at least a dozen other positive tests in Norway, USA and Australia, one UK nurse (our patient zero?) off work for about 3 months with long covid.

From the stats more recently perhaps you would have a 1-2% chance of being hospitalised, reduced by the vaccine, reduced by the numbers infected.......... and then your hospital chances of dying are less now than say 10 months ago as they have refined treatments and drugs used at different stages......

[Ovingite in reply to Runner999]

Well the really good news is that a study just released by NHS Scotland covering 1.1 million people show that 4 weeks after 1st jab hospitalisations reduced by 85% for Pfizer and 94% for AstraZeneca, which also minimises the risk of death. Best news I've seen in weeks!!