Covid-19

[Applesnpears]

The BBC has been reporting on the risks of Coranavirus in recent days, drawing heavily on the recently published statistics from China.

bbc.co.uk/news/health-51674743

The report explains some of the difficulties in understanding the statistics about the impact of the virus and why the headline numbers may overstate the risks of becoming seriously ill or worse.

The report makes it clear that if you contract the disease your risk of dying increases with age, rising sharply above the age of 60. However it doesn't make it clear that the Chinese data can not be used to calculate who might be the most at risk of contracting the disease. This will depend on many factors, including personal behaviours, and will be difficult to quantify.

The BBC report includes a graph showing that people with a confirmed case of the disease and suffering from other health conditions (cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, diabetes and high blood pressure) have a higher than average risk of dying, up to 10.5% for those with cardiovascular disease.

The BBC does not report on the mortality statistics for people who contract the disease and also have cancer. Nor does it present the statistics broken down by occupation.

Looking at the original report from China (in excellent English) the people who contracted the disease and had any type of "cancer" (its not clear if MPNs were included or not) had a 5.6% risk of dying.

This might suggest that having cancer increases your risk of dying if you contract the disease. An alternative explanation is that cancer is most common in older people, so its not cancer thats the issue, its being older.

This is best illustrated by the statistics on occupation. The employment group most at risk of dying from Coronavirus were not health workers but "retirees" with a 5.1% risk of dying. The point is that its not the fact that you've stopped working that makes you more vulnerable to the disease, it is that retired people are, almost by definition, older than people who are not retired.

In statistical terms this is correlation not causation. Older people are on average more vulnerable than younger people because as we get older and less robust, we tend to have more health problems (some diagnosed, others not) our immune systems don't work as well and if we get an infection treatments may be less effective and complications are more likely.

For me the key messages are to take sensible precautions to protect against getting the virus and do everything you can to stay fit and healthy, eat well, stay active and look after your lungs and heart. (More than 50% of Chinese men smoke!)

MPNrs have issues and complications that probably mean the risk from the virus is somewhat increased but being engaged and positive will help towards offseting that extra risk.

Let's be careful out there.

[ksos]

Thanks for such a clear and cogent explanation of the data available. and I agree with you -- reasonable caution is a smart response.

Best,

Kim

[Aime]

Thank you, this is what the press should be saying, instead of scaremongering. Kind regards Aime 😻

[Dovme]

So far China has only 50 new cases today numbers are dropping in South Korea

[Applesnpears in reply to Dovme]

Great to have some good news. Hopefully the media will cover this to help offset some of the alarmism.

[hunter5582]

Thanks for this concise and rational summary of the information. Due caution without undue fear seems like the best approach. Some folks here in the States are getting a bit wonky due to Corona Virus. No hand sanitizer left on the shelves, all the flue medicine gone, and now a looming toilet paper shortage! The stock market seems to be taking a hit due to peoples fears. We do need to take appropriate steps to deal with this looming pandemic, but keep our reactions rational and evidence-based.

Stay well all.