Tackling Coronavirus

[WinnieThePoo]

Since there more than a few posts here about Covid 19, I find this article a useful and informative explanation of the options for tackling the pandemic. It's quite long, but I find it provides a strong case for strictly enforced social distancing

medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coro...

[Fed1000]

Thanks so much. Is your test going?

[WinnieThePoo in reply to Fed1000]

Do you mean the SPARK trial? My 3rd April appointment has been provisionally cancelled. It's not clear whether the trial will have to end - at least in France.

If you mean Covid 19 tests - France is only testing on admission to hospital. Like the UK. My close friend who lunched with us in Carcassonne 2 weeks ago has now had the virus for a week, and is in self isolation in the UK. But untested. Its pathetic

[Fed1000 in reply to WinnieThePoo]

Thanks, I meant your Spark test and I hope it can resume.

[rebtar]

Best article I’ve read so far. Thanks.

[BUSHPILOTS]

What I took from this was the importance of heavy testing, tracing, quarantine. Which does not bode well for it here in the US

[WinnieThePoo in reply to BUSHPILOTS]

I fear you are right. The UK is not doing much better although it's ahead of the USA. France has pretty tough quarantine but weak testing and no tracking

[Gioc]

Certainly this study is interesting even if I confess I have not finished it, I stopped at the generic "presumed tens of millions of deaths", too catastrophic for me, that I am not a "fantastic Epidemic Calculator". In my opinion this virus is new and real situations have other dynamics other than those expected here. For example, we must take into account the symptomatic difference between children, often healthy carriers, and the elderly. The first ones have few symptoms and closing schools was a big mistake: the children infected their grandparents, but no virologist warned us. Then we don't know how much the incubation period is without symptoms, this is rather embarrassing for WHO to have such a technical gap since it would change the value of R0 a lot, that is how many people can infect a single patient before finding out that they are sick: many . Another fact not considered concerns the tests are not reliable for healthy carriers, there are false negatives. Finally why in Lombardy the virus was so contagious and in Rome not? Something boosters and we don't know what it is. Coronavirus is new, very contagious, with a sometimes lethal fast course. We must all be more humble and with the certainty of not having all the answers, trying to find a way out without destroying our civilization. It will be tough. Medicine that is the science of health will soon find a vaccine and also a cure that alleviates mortality. Statistics, which is not an exact science, will not. Furthermore, I personally find it dangerous to renounce civil rights on the basis of the calculations of the aforementioned calculator since it does not foresee "famine and war" which in history have always been the consequences of an epidemic. We try to survive.

[WinnieThePoo in reply to Gioc]

google.com/amp/s/www.newswe...

[Gioc in reply to WinnieThePoo]

Would there be any discussion about what is happening now in this country of Veneto now that they have come out of total isolation, it seems that there are no more new cases, are they immune? But the problem is another and that is that we are always late with the containment actions given the speed of the contagion brought by the mainly asymptomatic young people, as this study cited by you demonstrates.Today we are finally discussing what is the real number of positives ex positives since many "young people" recover in 8 days from the symptoms but transmit the virus for much longer. Here we talk about a number ten times x the positive tests with symptoms done so far, you understand that this number is close to one million in lombardy and the percentages change a lot with this in the denominator. Anyway, staying all at home is useful but we are always late, apart in korea.

Having the PD is 58yo I prefer to stay a bit at home, I grow lemons and I watch many modern cartoons for children that make me happy, I don't know why. LOL.

[Sapeye2020 in reply to Gioc]

Canada . from a CBC report, the title tells ALL !!

A fundamental shift': Nearly HALF of reported COVID-19 cases in Canada now from community spread

Rising community transmission numbers suggest we don't have a handle on how virus is spreading, experts say

the new designation is COMMUNITY spread/acquired.

This morning there was a finding that the Virus can survive on surfaces for 3 WEEKS , not the 2 weeks we have been told to date...

At Midnight travelers returning have MANDATORY Isolation for 14 days, in my mind it should be longer based on the survival time.

[WinnieThePoo in reply to Sapeye2020]

The virus doesn't survive 3 weeks. You are presumably talking about the Princess cruise ship. They found traces of virus RNA. It doesn't mean the virus is viable. It can't be transmitted. Maximum viable life on metal or steel is 72 hours

[Sapeye2020 in reply to WinnieThePoo]

Thanks for the clarification, located this report at :

theguardian.com/us-news/202...

The enigma is how/why are people still getting infected with the virus when the virus's virility is thought to be receding in those infected...

Best way till the answer is found, IMO is to follow the

Cautionary Principle:

If You think it could be there, act as if it really is there = minimum risk.

A friend has decided he is going to keep a diary of who he meets each day, he is a member of Search and Rescue here and has a lot of casual conttact with lots of the Gen. Public.

[WinnieThePoo in reply to Sapeye2020]

The 14 day quarantine period is because that is the incubation time from infection to presentation of symptoms. Of course the obvious other way of knowing if you are infectious is to TEST

[MBAnderson]

good one. Soon, here in the US, we face total catastrophe.

[WinnieThePoo in reply to MBAnderson]

Sadly Marc, I think that's true. Make sure you look after yourselves. The UK is a bit better, but not good enough. As that article points out, once you get too far on the curve, its near impossible to bring it back under control.

[MBAnderson in reply to WinnieThePoo]

There are now competent studies (Harvard) that predict if the gov't dismisses social distancing in 2 or 3 weeks, as it is planning to do, it will extend this nightmare for two or three years and from 2 million to 24 million people will die in the US.

[WinnieThePoo in reply to MBAnderson]

I try real hard to keep politics out of it, but I fear a very bad outcome for the USA (and the West) due to the approach of the US government. The epidemic may not last 2 or 3 years, even with their approach, if a vaccine is developed - but that isn't going to be before Christmas. Once the health systems overload, then the situation is going to become disastrous. And New York state is teetering on the brink already

[MBAnderson in reply to WinnieThePoo]

we'll hit 100,000 cases on Friday, then 1 million 9-10 days later.

[WinnieThePoo in reply to MBAnderson]

The cases look worse compared with (say) Italy because of different testing rates. It's the curve of deaths that is universally comparable (sadly).

[MBAnderson in reply to WinnieThePoo]

Denmark, which is basically freezing its economy, has a message for America.

msn.com/en-us/money/markets...

[WinnieThePoo in reply to MBAnderson]

Yup. It's not dissimilar to what France is doing. Ideally we would test and trace, but we don't (yet) have the resources. So you lockdown really tight, which stops the economy, but buys time. You flatten the curve, and buy time for test and trace to allow some easing (as in China now) and before too long, vaccines to come along. And to make sure your economy can restart, you pay compensation to everyone who is not earning due to these measures.

France, which has locked down real hard, is hoping it can get this under control in 6 weeks. Who know? It took China 3 months, and they locked down even harder, and had better test and trace, AND, critically locked down when deaths were 17. They were 197 when France got serious.

But - if you bring it under control, you can restart

If the USA fails to bring it under control because it fears the cost to the economy, then the eventual cost will be much, much higher. It is hampered by its free market , right wing nature. It lacks the social welfare and universal health care provisions of even european nations. And philosophically it resists government control.

So much for not doing politics

[MBAnderson in reply to WinnieThePoo]

We both know you did not scratch the surface re politics. I would sorely love to editorialize, but I would surely get kicked off the site, then I'd have to get a life.

[MBAnderson in reply to MBAnderson]

PS. Dear Ms. HU administrator, may I please editorialize about the US governments response to coronavirus without getting kicked off the site?

[WinnieThePoo in reply to MBAnderson]

I don't think this is too political youtube.com/watch?v=JZIc71N...(Not working as expected?)

[MBAnderson in reply to WinnieThePoo]

ha

[WinnieThePoo in reply to MBAnderson]

You were on the money. The graphs not looking pretty ☹️

[MBAnderson]

I know how we can do it without being political. Let's play game. I say a phrase, then you see the first word that comes to mind.

Self absorbed buffoon.

[WinnieThePoo in reply to MBAnderson]

Tangerine

[MBAnderson in reply to WinnieThePoo]

ha

[MBAnderson]

There's a plane with 5 passengers on board: Donald Trump, Boris Johnson,

Pope Francis, Angela Merkel, and a 10-year-old schoolboy. The plane is

about to crash and there are only 4 parachutes. Trump says: "I need one.

I’m a genius and am needed to make America great again." He takes one

and jumps. Johnson says, "I’m needed to sort out Britain." He takes one

and jumps. The Pope says, "I need one as the world needs the Catholic

Church." He takes one and jumps. Merkel says to the 10-year old boy:

"You can have the last parachute. I've lived my life, yours is only just

starting." The 10-year-old replies: "Don’t worry, there are 2 parachutes

left. Genius took my school back pack.

[Parkie- in reply to MBAnderson]

I found this very funny and thought I 'd share this that I just received:

A suspected Covid-19 male patient is lying in bed in the hospital, wearing an oxygen mask over his mouth and nose.

A young student female nurse appears and gives him a partial sponge bath.

"Nurse,"' he mumbles from behind the mask, "are my testicles black?"

Embarrassed, the young nurse replies, "I don't know, Sir. I'm only here to wash your upper body and feet."

He struggles to ask again, "Nurse, please check for me. Are my testicles black?"

Concerned that he might elevate his blood pressure and heart rate from worrying about his testicles, she overcomes her embarrassment and pulls back the covers.

She raises his gown, holds his manhood in one hand and his testicles gently in the other.

She looks very closely and says, "There's nothing wrong with them, Sir. They look fine."

The man slowly pulls off his oxygen mask, smiles at her, and says very slowly,

"Thank you very much. That was wonderful. Now listen very, very, closely:

"Are - my - test - results - back?"

[MBAnderson in reply to Parkie-]

ha. good one.

[MBAnderson]

Bill Gates 5 years ago predicts this pandemic.

youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_w...(Not working as expected?)

[WinnieThePoo in reply to MBAnderson]

Yes - I posted this on facebook recently. Trust you are taking appropriate precautions and not giving press conferences shoulder to shoulder with colleagues like POTUS. His idea of 6 feet explains the reality of his boasts about 6 inches

[MBAnderson]

in the mean time -- our reality

youtube.com/watch?v=XezLiez...(Not working as expected?)

[WinnieThePoo in reply to MBAnderson]

Boy. I had to use my VPN to watch this. We hear about Fox but I'd never watched it before. Stay sane and safe Marc. I fear your country is going to be a very different place this time next year

[MBAnderson]

It could get ugly. Currently, we're worried about the healthcare providers, but what happens when a few grocery store clerks get it and die? Are their minimum-wage colleagues going to take a chance to stock grocery store shelves for seven dollars an hour? I don't think so. Or, when a few trucking companies lose a few dozen truck drivers or a few utility companies loose a few dozen utility workers, will everybody keep showing up at work?

[WinnieThePoo in reply to MBAnderson]

You're in one of the states with few infections at the moment I believe. Do you have any sort of enforced social distancing yet? Are you practicing it anyway? We have some good news - all 3 of the people I know with the virus appear to be improving a lot. Looks like they've all turned the corner. Our town of Quillan in the Aude is a hotspot. We have gendarmes patrolling the streets. (We live in a little mountain village 8km from Quillan, but its our nearest shops, bars, banks)

[MBAnderson in reply to WinnieThePoo]

Good to hear your acquaintances are recovering.

Yes, we're residents of Minneapolis/St. Paul Minnesota which has 3 million people and 287 cases statewide and where the Democratic governor has put the state on tight lockdown, but we spend winters in Flori-duh which is where we are now and which is experiencing dramatic spikes, but the Republican governor here refuses to take ANY action.

Trying to figure out how much risk there is spending three days on the road to drive home because healthcare at Flori-duh is comparable to Third World countries and healthcare in Minnesota is excellent.

We had a freezer delivered yesterday and we're getting food delivered every day until it is filled up, believing were going to sit tight for a while. If we didn't get in traveling through Zürich, Madrid, Chicago and Atlanta, I don't want to get it a gas station in Possum Gap Tennessee

Here, your living in the mountains, I assumed you're totally safe, but not so?

[WinnieThePoo in reply to MBAnderson]

Yes its easy to be complacent. Brigitte our immediate neighbour, is one of my 3 recovering friends, and normally I see her and greet her with the obligatory french bisous at least a couple of times a week. France has now cut bisous and handshakes. Everyone in our village (89 people) would visit Quillan regularly - its 5 minutes in the car. Started 2 weeks ago when a couple in their 70's brought it back from a cruise in Egypt. Now we have more than 20 cases and 2 deaths. Brigitte came out of hospital 4 days ago, although she was still very poorly, because they needed the bed. I wouldn't want to be stuck in Florida

[MBAnderson in reply to WinnieThePoo]

Really. Tell me about it. I'm not going out the door for anything. Unless you live on a remote farm or ranch, nowhere is safe. Your situation proves that.

[Parkinsonjisung in reply to MBAnderson]

I'm not American so excuse my ignorance, but why does the governors party matter for health decisions? Is it simply economy vs health?

[Bundoran]

The mathematical models having exactly been covering themselves in glory so far. Nearly 2 weeks ago I heard a reputable doctor on radio saying that there would be a surge of deaths (hundreds if not thousands) by last weekend here in Ireland (pop about 4 to 5 million). We are still less than 100 as of yesterday. A tragedy sure but hardly a surge.

[Bundoran]

One thing that doesn't seem to be built into the models is the collateral damage to heathcare from a severely weakened economy. Us PwP will become vulnerable if this shutdown goes on for a protracted period.

[Sapeye2020]

I agree that we PWP ARE IN FOR A KICKING DUE TO OUR "GIFT" but we just have to use our intelligence to minimize as many opportunities for the virus to get us as possible, As of today the CBC has a very straightforward article that boils down to :

1. Stay outside, being inside maximizes opportunities for the virus to get you,

2. Stay away from everyone you can, 6 feet MINIMUM, the more the better, I prefer 10 feet,

3. stay away from malls, arenas, and other congregating places,

4. Never sit in the air conditioned air stream, anywhere, especially in hospitals or health clinics.

5. Be vigilant, always.

HTH