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Flying can be safer than grocery shopping, Harvard study asserts

lankisterguy profile image
lankisterguyVolunteer
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Flying can be safer than grocery shopping, Harvard study asserts

cnn.com/travel/article/flyi...

Pete Muntean and Gregory Wallace, CNN • Published 27th October 2020

SAN DIEGO, CA - MAY 20: Passengers onboard an American Airlines flight to Charlotte, NC at San Diego International Airport on May 20, 2020 in San Diego, California. Air travel is down as estimated 94 percent due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, causing U.S. airlines to take a major financial hit with losses of $350 million to $400 million a day and nearly half of major carriers airplanes are sitting idle. (Photo by Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images)

(CNN) — If your Thanksgiving trip includes a flight, you might be conflicted: Is sitting elbow-to-elbow with strangers in an aircraft safe during the pandemic?

It's hard not to feel conflicted about holiday flights.

Airlines are offering travel deals this season, and many of us have not seen extended family members much, if at all, this year. The latest scientific evidence offers both the reassurance that flying is relatively safe as well as warnings about what can still go wrong.

First, the reassurance

Harvard researchers say more research needs to be done on air travel and the spread of coronavirus.

A Harvard University study released Tuesday used computer models to review airflow in airliner cabins, and it says the specialized onboard ventilation systems filter out 99% of airborne viruses. It was funded by airlines, airplane manufacturers and airports, but the Harvard researchers insist this did not impact their findings.

Researchers at the university's T.H. Chan School of Public Health found that even though air is recirculated back into the cabin, it goes through high-quality filters first. And virus droplets from one passenger are unlikely to infect another because of a "downward direction" of airflow, they said.

"This ventilation effectively counters the proximity travelers are subject to during flights," their report says.

The ventilation system, however, is not effective alone. Harvard's researchers described masks as a critical part of keeping travelers healthy and credited the role of disinfection and passengers' self-screening for Covid-19 symptoms.

Modern aircraft ventilation systems aren't spreading viruses, DoD study suggests

The "layered approach, with ventilation gate-to-gate, reduces the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission onboard aircraft below that of other routine activities during the pandemic, such as grocery shopping or eating out," the study said.

The Harvard computer modeling was in line with another recent study by the Defense Department that used mannequins outfitted with surgical masks and particle detection equipment on Boeing 767 and 777 jets. It found little risk of transmission thanks to the masks and efficient air ventilation.

Harvard researchers described wearing masks as a critical part of keeping travelers safe in aircraft cabins, but stopped short of calling for a government mask mandate onboard flights.

Harvard researchers described wearing masks as a critical part of keeping travelers safe in aircraft cabins, but stopped short of calling for a government mask mandate onboard flights.

What can go wrong

On the other hand, a study released by Irish researchers shows what can go wrong onboard, even when precautions are taken.

Through contract tracing, public health officials in Dublin and other cities linked 13 cases to a single passenger on a seven-hour international flight this summer. Fewer than one in five seats were filled. None of the travelers were known to not wear a mask on the flight.

So how did that spread?

"Exposure possibilities for flight cases include inflight, during overnight transfer/pre-flight or unknown acquisition before the flight," the researchers wrote. One traveler could have picked up the virus from a family member. Two others spent multi-hour layovers in airport lounges.

But for others, "in-flight transmission was the only common exposure," they concluded, noting that "four of the flight cases were not seated next to any other positive case, had no contact in the transit lounge, wore face masks in-flight and would not be deemed close contacts."

The odds of catching Covid-19 on an airplane are slimmer than you think, scientists say

Laboratories linked the cases as being from the same strain.

The Irish researchers recommended authorities improve contact tracing, and Harvard's scientists encouraged people to minimize mask removal -- such as when eating or drinking -- in flight.

Harvard's researchers are already turning their attention to other parts of the travel experience when people congregate without the aircraft ventilation system, such as in airport lounges and security lines.

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11 Replies
cajunjeff profile image
cajunjeff

I do believe flying can be done reasonably safely these days, but not without some risk of covid. It’s an insidious and invisible virus. I do not plan flying until I get my vaccine, but I wouldn’t rule it out. I think the odds are very good one would not get covid on a flight. But travel is just not on a plane. It’s driving to airport, parking, dealing with luggage handlers, standing in lines and using public bathrooms.

Harvard is about the most well respected college there is. If I had airline money and needed a study promoting safe travel, I would seek a Harvard type school to lend credibility to my study. There is about a 99% chance the airline industry have their fingerprints on this study somewhere.

I am no conspiracy theorist, but this study appears to have done to get people back on planes. I’ll dig up the money behind the study when I time later today. It’s usually not too hard to find.

lankisterguy profile image
lankisterguyVolunteer in reply tocajunjeff

I am right with you Jeff. I agree that if you put enough money behind a study you can get the results to support almost any theory. ( I'm channeling Schrodinger's Cat wtamu.edu/~cbaird/sq/2013/0... and the Hawthorne effect - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawth... )

The CNN folks put lots of disclaimers at the end of the article, that reminded me of statements usually from Economists that are always followed by "On the otherhand...."

-

Len

cajunjeff profile image
cajunjeff in reply tolankisterguy

Yup, follow the money. It took me a few minutes but I found it.

Harvard makes their organization look independent by calling it the Aviation Public Health Initiative (APHI). But who funds the APHI? That turns out to be A4A, Airlines four America. Who is A4A? Delta, Southwest, American and all the other airlines.

So what we have is a study funded by airlines who are losing money saying air travel is super safe. LOL. I do not know if the study is accurate or not, I juts knew the minute I read the study it was financed by airline money.

cdn1.sph.harvard.edu/wp-con...

airlines.org/news/a4a-annou....

Newdawn profile image
NewdawnAdministrator

It isn’t so much the aircraft and flying that concerns me as much as the check-in, crowded lounges, shuffling in queues, shared facilities in the departure lounge, people invading your space at the luggage carousel, the ‘bendy bus’ that takes you from the plane to the arrival airport and the ongoing transport to the destination.

My concern is also that even symptomatic people will get on the plane in an attempt to get home and over the years I’m convinced I’ve caught some pretty hefty respiratory infections on planes after being seated near to constant hackers and mucus troopers! 🙄

I won’t even go in a taxi at the moment.

Newdawn

cllady01 profile image
cllady01Former Volunteer in reply toNewdawn

I agree, Newdawn. Even if you get to a destination without contracting anything, the current surging of the virus means you could be walking into a host of contacts who have or are carrying with no symptoms. And then there is flu season to consider also.

The question looms: will you be required to isolate and how do you, if that is the case, make any plans for a safe visit with family?

Ernest2 profile image
Ernest2

Interesting article.

I note that's on two of the latest jets.

Of course with COVID a lot of the older planes are now doomed to the scrap yard.

Best wishes,

Ernest

lankisterguy profile image
lankisterguyVolunteer

Actually the passenger 767 is a relic-

The original 767-200 entered service on September 8, 1982 with United Airlines, and the extended-range 767-200ER in 1984. It was stretched into the 767-300 in October 1986, followed by the 767-300ER in 1988, the most popular variant. The 767-300F, a production freighter version, debuted in October 1995. Boeing stopping producing the passenger versions of the 767, however, once its successor, the 787, Dreamliner, was launched in 2011. Boeing still produces non-passenger versions of the 767, but those units are sold to commercial airlines.Mar 8, 2018

-

Len

LeoPa profile image
LeoPa

Airlines lose 400 mil a day, so they fund a study that says on board filters are N95 grade. Wich I highly doubt. Mask wearing is not compulsory but they don't recommend making it mandatory. Sounds like today one can buy scientists to come to any desirable conclusion if he has the money to do it. Like when the sugar lobby funded studies according to which evidence condemning sugar is inconclusive and more studies are needed to prove that sugar is harmful.

dwolden profile image
dwolden

Shame on them for the click bait title. I cannot foresee air travel being "safe" for us. My husband is always on the edge of neutropenia between the CLL and aftereffects of FCR treatment 7 years ago. We are both old enough to have a reduced response to vaccines (I learned this last year pre-Covid when his internist told us that vaccines have "at best" a 20% effectiveness rate, and that's for young people!). We do grocery shop, masked and I am hypervigilant about masks on others and will complain to management immediately. We fought long and hard to keep him alive so we could be together. I'll keep fighting.

kablea profile image
kablea

Am I imagining it or on almost every flight my wife and I take, one of us comes back with an infection. The irony is that it is because of flights, this ridiculous need to be going places, that has fostered Covid and caused the pandemic.

AussieNeil profile image
AussieNeilPartnerAdministrator

Possibly a less biased report

forbes.com/sites/suzannerow... , which mentions the Harvard research and concludes: Meanwhile, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention offers a more holistic take that acknowledges the conflicting research from both sides. “Most viruses and other germs do not spread easily on flights because of how air circulates and is filtered on airplanes,” according to CDC travel guidance. “However, social distancing is difficult on crowded flights, and sitting within 6 feet of others, sometimes for hours, may increase your risk of getting Covid-19.”

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