Just wondering what people are thinking about this lockdown and how we get out of it !! Any ideas ???
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Is this Going to Unravel: Just... - British Heart Fou...
Is this Going to Unravel
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Prada47
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I hope its going to be worth the economic distaster that will follow.
The economy will be destroyed for years. Pensions will be worthless. Unemployment will be at the highest for decades and people will suffer. All this ''free money'' Boris is chucking at everyone has to come from somewhere - there are no magic money trees! Our children and grandchildren will be the ones who have to pay it back - and will be saddled with hgh taxes and lost opportunities for decades to come.
More people could die in the resulting 10 years, than from Covid running wild amond the popultaion right now.
that scares me just as much as contractng it.
Unbelievable political claptrap. What has this to do with a heart forum 🤬
Hello gilreid
Actually quite a lot there is nothing in this that is Political rather than your knee jerk reaction you could offer what would be your way out of this situation.
Oh by the way I would be in the Group of Particular Vulnerable Over 70 with Moderate Heart Failure , CABG surgery and Stents.
This is a Serious Question that does need Answers. I await yours
This will not have to go on for much longer before there will be no Money to Pay the NHS staff. The NHS is paid for by Revenue the State collects from Workers i.e. PAYE and NI no workers no money
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My major concerns are with the 'recovery of the NHS when the current pressure is relieved and the ongoing issues people (and in particular vulnerable people) will continue to face.
I am distressed by some recent posts of those who have had significant heart issues who have been unable to access services and seem to have been 'dumped' A recent poster who was discharged from hospital with heart failure who had received what sounded like only the most basic GP review was prescribed a much needed dieretic but told nothing else could be prescribed without authority of Cardiologist. Why this wasn't sorted prior to discharge I can't understand but even before Covid19 this sort of issue happened. We are not in normal circumstances so chronically and acutely ill people still need to be looked after perhaps in a way which is outside of the present system. By that I mean surely it should be possible for a GP to investigate a suitable medication regime rather than just say 'not in my remit'. We can't all be reviewed but the I do feel the most vulnerable require a greater level of support than what currently seems to be on offer in some areas.
I fully realise that Covid19 patients need the immediate and urgent attention but at what stage do we look to other non covid patients with major issues before they turn into something irreversible. I maybe going a tad off track from the block but as you say most issues are intertwined and I feel it's worthy of debate.
I noticed my local hospital us currently showing 11/2 A&E wait which is another hot potatoe for me for when this crisis reduces at our need to use A&E for its intended purpose and to challenge people assertively for misuse.
Isnt there enough to worry about now?
I did consider that before posting but all programmes of action have consequences and we need to be mindful of that as much as we can or we lurch from one crisis to another. When pressures are eased I would like to see some newly created temporary facilities kept open for a further period to deal with waiting lists etc and that is what I will lobby for when I can
Nasty
Sorry I should have closed with the normal smokescreen. Only my opinion. And the by the way ? Is that a question? To me. I thought the categories had already been set out by professionals. Me I am 62 happy to be alive after HA. Stent and triple bypass surgery
It looks like most of us are going to get this virus, either a mild dose or the other. Animals have now entered the picture, (tigers in New York), it'll be carried all over which is the bit that scares me, (foot and mouth bonfires, TB culling), how will we stop it spreading? We're not cleaning like China and we're not protecting ourselves like China. The government aren't trying to stop the virus, just trying to slow it down but what I'm concerned about is we're an island it's like being in a jar with the virus going round and round. I hope I'm wrong and this virus will burn it's self out. We can't carry on with the self-isolation for too long at some point we will have to face the problem.
Maybe be should bring Danger Mouse and Penfold out of retirement, manic viruses was their expertise.
Hi Howard
It's so weird we haven't had anything before that couldn't be cured !! We will all need to be vaccinated against this and hope it works quick before we know the results of this Experiment. Because that's what we are all in together an Experiment, and I understand there was no option but to join this Experiment " Herd Immunity " "or Lets Wait and See " and it looks like Lets Wait and See won the day !!
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Now that is Radical -)
Put the kettle on (or scroll past
- it's a long'un but germane). Bottom line, boring-annoying-financially devastating, mass quarantine works.
Using the 1918-1919 3-wave Spanish Influenza pandemic as a frame of reference, we are probably looking at the initial 'lockdown' gradually ending by the middle of June 2020 to the first week of July 2020.
The first wave (began January 1918) of the 1918 pandemic 'quarantines' (fewish and far-betweenish as most municipalities chose to view the pandemic as a serious but 'regular' flu) were gradually eased off as above (by early summer 1918).
Then the second, mutated wave hit in the fall of 1918 bringing a mutated strain that killed in days rather than weeks and had a much higher mortality rate. There were areas stubbornly refusing to institute quarantines, business and other closures, and a 'sanitary code' that included heavy fines for those who went out unmasked or those who spat on the pavements, and those areas saw the highest mortality rates with the additional horror of many survivors being found to be permanently impaired with damaged lungs, 'post-influenza depression' that led to suicides, and some survivors with profound brain damage.
Areas with high acceptance/adherence of quarantines, business and other closures, and institution of strict sanitary codes saw significantly lower mortality rates and much lower impaired survivor rates. Second wave measures were eased for a brief time in the late summer-early autumn 1919.
The third wave came about in the last few months of 1919 and was as deadly as the second - but many had acquired immunity from the second wave plus measures were quickly put into place meaning the third wave was essentially stopped by January 1920 (although thousands did die during the third wave, the mortality rate was far lower than the second wave) The third wave measures were generally eased off gradually by March 1920 but there were sporadic outbreaks through December 1920.
And the global economy (with a few exceptions in areas hardest hit by mortalities and impaired survivors) was recovered by early spring 1921.
The restored-recovered economy lasted (boomed, actually) until 29 October 1929 (Black Tuesday).
'Social distancing' and what we're calling 'self-isolation' but is actually 'self-quarantining' stopped the transmission of the deadly second wave and the third wave.
It is worth noting during the three waves some business and public transport worked together to stagger opening times (factories and retailers of essential goods) so as to lower the number of key workers and other people moving about.
Very good post. As you say the world economy quickly recovered, boomed (wasn't called the roaring 20s for nothing!)
As regards the issue of money, yes it's costing a fortune but there is a difference here. In the 2008 banking crisis, because our banking sector is so big the amount of money that had to be thrown at the banks was disproportional to our GDP, other countries didn't have this problem so there was a real fear that the £ would crash in value, luckily that didn't happen to any great extent.
In this crisis, every country is throwing money at the problem, and every economy is being strangled so there is no reason to suspect that the UK will be "punished" by the markets any more or less than any other country, if indeed any country is "punished"
There will be pent up demand when this is over, and with a large number of people being paid 80% of their pay there should be some cash swirling around looking for an outlet (I accept that the self employed are not being helped greatly by the current solution offered by the government) , so I think we shouldn't worry about the "cost" of the government printing money but just focus on doing what we need to do to get this virus under control
(wasn't called the roaring 20s for nothing!) Ah yes up until 1929 when it all came crashing down !!!
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Yes - and we can lay that at the door of the bankers - busy offering cheap money for people to buy shares when those people didn't have the collateral to secure the loan in the first place
And playing on margins. grrrr!
Thank you. As a scientist and amateur historian I appreciate the lesson within this. It beats the 5G and manmade virus conspiracy theories that emerge when people are uncertain and frightened. Good luck everyone.
I just listened to the Director of the IFS mmm The Poor The Unskilled are going to suffer far greater than has been thought about. Debenhams are heading for shutdown with 20000 jobs going, people won't have money to spend for quite a long time when this is over
Could you please let me know what is free money. I have never found it yet It has always had to be paid back.
Sunnie this is a far far different World to 1918 Globalisation hadn't been thought about. The Car Industry didn't really exist for one, when this is over no one will have money to Buy Cars so the Car Industry or a lot of it will disappear along with an awful lot of other Industries Airlines, Cruise Ships, Hotels all spring to mind.
Thatwasunexpected I await your utopia but can't see it !!!
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My Great-gran bought one of the first Ford Model T motor cars available in her area - in 1910 The Ford Motor Company was very much the best known of the motor vehicle industry but others predated the 1908 roll-off of the first Model T cars.
Globalisation...wasn't that what WWI was all about - Germany wanting to be the master of the globe?
The names change, hemlines rise and men wear or don't wear spats, but the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic is very much germane to what we're going through right now.
Sorry to disagree but can we agree to disagree?
Great post I knew very little of the 1918 pandemic. I am sure as you say we will see many similarities
I really wish this isn't going to go the same route but so far it is almost perfectly mimicking the Spanish Influenza pandemic including mutations, who got it first and who is getting it now - just as in 1918, the first fatalities were 'the vulnerable' and young people were thought to be relatively 'safe'. Then it started hitting young people. Just as it is now.
I think we're going to see a second wave this autumn - I hope I'm wrong, I really-really-really hope I'm wrong.
I think we're going to see a second wave this autumn
So do I and I think it will be before the Autumn, all the planning appears to be heading towards that outcome. Rapidly increasing NHS bed capacity points towards it. If we are approaching the Bulge why do we need to increase Capacity ? Nightingales are only temporary they are not there to increase NHS capacity for after the Virus.
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in reply to Prada47
If a few Airlines go to the wall at least it will help towards the next looming disaster.
in reply to
It will be a global recession of such magnitude it will kill as many as thevirusthatshallnotbenamed
I recommend Matthew Syed's article in yesterday's Times entitled "I challenge the online ‘experts’ so critical of No 10 on coronavirus: tell us, has Sweden got it right or wrong". His opening line is, "The blame game is up and running. Hardly a person in authority has stuck their head above the parapet without receiving a chorus of vitriol." It's an excellent commentary where he makes a plea for a rational debate. I'd echo that plea but don't think it'll ever happen in today's poisonous, fake news environment.
Ah Quantitative Easing now that does take a degree in Economics to understand. A major tool used to be interest rates but that has gone now. Lets face we are in the poo. and the Italians and French are in it worse than we are, that's the only consolation in all of this. Not really it's a mess.
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Did you know that the Spanish flu came from America? Funny considering they’re apportioning blame.
Actually, the first cases (although never recorded officially) came out of France. The reason it's called 'the Spanish Influenza' is owing to Spain's position during WW1 - they were not part of the war and as such still had a 'free press' and could report on the strangely deadly flu cases cropping up in France. In fact, the Spanish called it The French Flu, still do in some parts of Spain with descendants of survivors still talking about the French Flu that carried off (insert flu victim relative here).
The first recorded (ie 'official') cases were at a US Army post. But it originated in France and became known as the Spanish Flu owing to the free press in Spain reporting on the emergence.
I wince when I hear some Americans (yes, we all know which ones) call it 'the Wuhan Flu' or 'the Chinese virus' - but China is where SARS CoV-2 originated.
I thought covid19 was of the same strain as SARS ??
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It is - SARS CoV-2 is the scientific name, Covid-19 is the strain name and varies so little from SARS-1 they differentiate but simultaneously say it is nearly identical.
I honestly believe if more people understood this is SARS v 2.0, they'd 'get' why it is causing such worry - again, this is SARS and it kills the same way - ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome).
My worry is what will the second wave be like? During the 1918 pandemic many of the people who died in the second wave had the flu in the first wave - meaning the new mutation ignored any presumed immunity from the first wave.
My information was that an American farmer was the first person to have the flu like symptoms when he received his call up to the army. The Americans kept the information quiet as they were shipping out to fight in France. Cases on the ship were known but kept secret for years.
The official records are for a US Army cook to have been the first recorded patient.
Could be worse - for years the Spanish insisted it came over with the British Army, spread to the French and then across to the USA with troop movements.
Years later it emerged the first cases were French chicken farmers - yes, Spanish Influenza was an avian H1N1 variant flu strain, and the French chicken farmers got the ball rolling and no, the Spanish never apologised for trying to pin it on us.
Hello Maisie
That was my understanding exactly of how this came to Europe.
Regards
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Sorry Sunnie but we’re going to have to agree to differ. I think that was the official line but has since been dispelled.
Yes, we will have to agree to disagree, thank-you
The military is on standby.
In answer to the question ' how do we come out of this' the article attached is an interesting read, setting out 4 possible scenarios. It's long but easy to follow:
theconversation.com/what-wi...
Hi
I have read the article, a lot depends on Peoples Reaction there is Nothing as Fickle as Human Nature, Everything in the article needs people to agree with whatever way the Govt goes
I have no idea of what is at the other side of this, all I know is it won't be brilliant for an awful lot of People..
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Think she traveled with her children. It was twice. It was 90 miles. The reason you should not drive, even a short way, is the risk of an accident and the resulting impact on the NHS. If you leave out all the reasons for the advice , agree, was an ok thing to do
I saw a guy in an interview a few days ago, I can't remember his name but he was an adviser to Tony Blair I think. Anyway he was basically putting his hands up and saying that it was discussed way back then that the greatest threat to the world would very likely be a Pandemic and that we need to plan for what will would do and put measures in place. Both the government at the time and subsequent ones have just sat on their hands over it - the current Government is clueless. We ave got exactly the same sort of situation looming in the form of climate change, but Global Governments are doing little, the just react at the time not act before it. As has been said we simply cannot just sit round in lockdown for months and months or the economy will be ruined, and if we don't have a strong economy then we will not be able to fight anything. We all know that there are some very harsh realities and decisions that we dare not mention but are inevitable.
The only way at the moment, so it seems, is that we follow the governments advice and stay at home. And the more we adhere to this, the quicker all these restrictions can be lifted. This is a serious infectious disease and there’s a very small percentage of self interested people who don’t seem to think so and it’s those people who’ll make it worse for the vast majority of us following the guidelines.
Why is no one focusing and i mean the government and press too on the thousands of people who have got better from the virus and havent got it. I am so tired of the bad side of this. I had a mentally bad day yesterday and im determined not to go there again. Positiveity is what is needed right now, not doom and gloom 24 /7 in my opinion. Hugs sara
I agree entirely what you say about the media. They twist and spin things for their own political leanings. My advice is watch as little if any TV news or written press as you can. It’s all based on sensationalism and headline grabbing; by constantly watching or listening to it it will eventually have deep psychological effects on individuals, as have been proven scientifically. It’s like the adverts, they’re all brainwashing designed to imprint on your mind to believe and accept what your being told. I have found staying away from the negativity of the tv and only turn on to watch a decent film nowadays and it has helped me overcome the last three weeks of being unwell with cough; fever; no smell or taste; fatigued beyond anything to slowly getting better.
I am worried about how non-corona virus people are being treated. My aunt is 90 and has dementia and in a care home. On Monday she kept fainting and was taken to A&E, a separate one for non corona patients. The hospital didn't inform us as her guardians when they took her back 5 hours later as they said it was her blood pressure tablets causing it. They complained to the care home because though they knew she had dementia, they didn't know she needed help with her toilet, which is why they didn't keep her in. They were very aggressive according to the carer we spoke to. So we have the worry over her health as the hospital said that GPs had no idea regarding BP tablets as it was just guess work, which doesn't give confidence.
Prada47 in reply to
Hi Meenzer
It is true that Blood Pressure Meds are a bit hit and miss, But after a little while they do get it correct. It needs patience, sorry to hear how your Aunt appears to have been treated.
Regards
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"The national death toll (from flu) officially stands at 430, although the real figure could be much higher with experts saying some deaths are attributed to other causes despite flu-related complications" This was the flu in Australia in 2019; note that some deaths are attributed to other causes despite flu-related complications and yet the reverse is tru for COVID-19, a 90 year old with chronic heart and other diseases passing away is immediately attributed to COVID-19. We have 46 deaths from COVID-19 in Australia so far. Far more shocking - 74 Australian women and 27 Australian children died from domestic violence last year. Our retirement fund has been slashed in half. Our daughters and their sons will be paying off debt for decades. There are families losing their homes and starving. The government should have found ways to protect those most at risk and allow life to go on. The majority of those at risk, including me, are retired and could have been managed and supported in isolation until a vaccine was found.
Prada47 in reply to
I know if I lived in Oz I would be up in Exmouth or out in the Bush. Probably get bitten by a Spider LOL. Interesting stat on Domestic Violence it's not going to be good here when this is all over !
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