New potential COVID hotspots detected by app.

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Data modelling from King's using data from the COVID Symptom Study app is able to identify potential COVID hotspots in the UK. (ZOE app)

The modelling highlights key local authorities as potential new hotspots. As well as Leicester which is already back in lockdown, the data has highlighted Dudley and Wolverhampton as other areas in The Midlands that could be heading in the same direction.

There are three key criteria for identifying hotspots. The local authority area must:

have significantly higher prevalence than its neighbouring authorities;

be in the top 10th percentile of prevalence for the UK, and;

that prevalence is higher today than 10 days ago.

This method for estimating prevalence is based on the assessments of 3.7M UK app users, using the validated model to predict COVID-19 positivity based on symptoms and combine it with swab test results reported by app users.

This model can find areas in the country that have a prevalence which is higher than its neighbours and is likely to lead to an increase in confirmed cases and hospitalisation in the following 5 and 12 days respectively. The same model predicted Barnsley and Rochdale to be hotspots back on June 17th but these areas no longer rank highly.

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