Research led by Imperial College London found that the reproduction number, or R value, for COVID-19 in the United Kingdom was below the threshold of one as of 10 May. However, the analysis revealed that the R value was sufficiently high that the epidemic was likely to continue for months, even if lockdown controls and social distancing remained unchanged.
According to the researchers, easing social-distancing restrictions should be considered very carefully as small increases in contact rates are likely to risk resurgence of the disease, even in regions where the R has been reduced to below one.
Dr Pierre Nouvellet, of Imperial's School of Public Health, said: “During this pandemic, the level of mobility reduction observed across the world has been unprecedented. This analysis provides very strong evidence of the benefit of population-wide mobility restriction to control such a pandemic.
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