I suppose that much will be made of the estimated new U.S. cases for 2021: 248,530 (up from 191,930 in 2020 - a 30% increase.! Presumably it reflects an increased screening trend - a good thing IMO.
2021 estimated deaths: 34,130 (up from 33,330 in 2020)
-Patrick
A 30% increase in one year seems like a lot to attribute to increased / better testing.
And I imagine with Covid, there are many fewer physician visits and less testing.
Is there any other causative factor you think that might be responsible?
Although Covid is killing people who might have died of other things, including PCa, it has been associated with excess non-covid deaths, presumably due to patients avoiding doctor visits. Which suggests that healthy men might well be putting off PSA tests.
The alternative explanation that the increase in new cases is due to the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation that men avoid screening, seems unlikely to me. The effect of the USPSTF has been an increase in advanced cancer cases, but a larger decrease in low Gleason cases.
The numbers are estimates for the current year, & perhaps we will discover what the thinking was.
-Patrick
The USPSTF screening guidelines for PC were flawed from the start. It was only backward looking and did not consider that diagnosing more with early disease would lead to better treatments for earlier disease. If we went to universal screening (which won’t happen) there would be a large bump in advanced cases diagnosed initially. And more early cases too. But then the advanced cases would necessarily decline and more research and treatments would focus on earlier disease.
Or maybe they used different modeling.
I agree though this can be attributed to anything as they don't reveal how to go about it.
Wondering if in the end Covid will have beneficial impact on people (like if they start to grow their own food which is less toxic that the food from markets) or if it will have increase the number of people with cancer (because of higher stress and emotional burden such as anxiety that some believe play a certain role in developing cancer)?
Like XPO1, I am a developer but I've also been a business analyst and with stats you can always find a way to make the numbers fit the story you wish to tell so people should not be reading too much into this. 
The 2021 projections are based on currently available incidence and mortality data and thus do not reflect the impact of COVID‐19 on cancer cases and deaths.
They use historical data up to 2017 for incidence and 2018 for mortality.
"191,930 in 2020"
How would one use "historical data up to 2017 for incidence" to calculate 2020 incidences?
On first blush would not seem possible?
How do you think they did that?
Read for yourself
acsjournals.onlinelibrary.w...
Thank you.
I think you misread the following:
"In this article, we provide the estimated numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in 2021 in the United States nationally and for each state, as well as a comprehensive overview of cancer occurrence based on the most current population‐based data for cancer incidence through 2017 and for mortality through 2018. We also estimate the total number of cancer deaths averted due to the decline in cancer mortality since the early 1990s."
No.
I think you did. The article explicitly state they start with the incidence counts through 2017.
The first step in calculating the number of invasive cancer cases expected in 2021 was to estimate complete counts in every state from 2003 through 2017 using delay‐adjusted, high‐quality NAACCR incidence data from 50 states and the District of Columbia (98% population coverage; data were unavailable for a few sporadic years for a limited number of states).
The most recent year for which incidence and mortality data are available lags 2 to 4 years behind the current year because of the time required for data collection, compilation, quality control, and dissemination
..........
The 2021 projections are based on currently available incidence and mortality data and thus do not reflect the impact of COVID‐19 on cancer cases and deaths.
I was referring the 2020 numbers which should exist.
But you know what. I think you are right.
Those numbers can't be published yet, so they must have been using estimates.
That's the whole point...they don't exist and therefore they were not included in the analysis.
They also needed to massage the data because the individual states collection was not uniform.
Thank you. I know that takes a lot for you to admit I'm right.
I have a feeling you'll be doing that more in the coming months.
It's only people with big egos who have problems admitting error.
That's why we have had such a surge in US death rates and average longevity over the last year.
If you can back it up, it's not ego, is it.
Still on that...if you are so unhappy here why don't you move to North Korea, China or Venezuela. They adhere to your economic philosophies.
Xpo1
"North Korea, China or Venezuela"
Why would you list non-democratic authoritarian regimes.
Personally I am of the opinion that anyone who supports non-democratic authoritarian regimes should be stripped of the right to vote. Hopefully that will actually happen to certain recent felonious insurrectionists.
Why would you assume that I support non-democratic authoritarian regimes? What would make you think I am a twisted supporter of such sickness?
Please take your off-topic hate and anger to private messaging where I will be pleased to return it in kind.
Let's stick to health care here please.
Thank you
2020 numbers will definitely be skewed due to Covid-19. Everything slowed down last year as facilities were not operating at 100% 2019 capacity.
Did people stop getting cancer? No, of course not. Did people stop going to doctors unless absolutely necessary? Yes, without a doubt!
And subsequent numbers are naturally going to climb as people return to their regular health care check-up's and follow through... Just average 5 years ending in 21's projections and that'll probably be close to what the real number will be close to (IMO).
Cooolone, that would make sense. The actual occurances aren't changing. But the diagnoses are being delayed and will end up getting bunched up.
This will not delay deaths. And might even accelerate deaths.
The real material factor is that these new covid variants appear to be not only more transmissible. They are more deadly... and will require a new generation of vaccines to slow them down.
The pandemic could extend to the end of 2021 if that were true.
Where did you read the new variants are more deadly ??
Just saw it on my Google news feed.
Do a search on:
1. Uk boris johnson Covid
And
2. South africa Covid Variant
You should find multiple articles in the last day indicating that both variants kill more people by spreading way way quicker.
Boris said that in addition they believe the UK variant is more deadly.
The South African scientists I recollect said the same about their variant. They specifically said that the standard version antibodies are pretty much ineffective on the SA strain.
How accurate are the determinations of PCa deaths by year? I hear and read that most PCa victims die of "other things." If true, how are those deaths classified? And if the "other things" are caused by the PCa or the treatment, what then?
Not kicking around here just bicycling 117 miles yesterday. Don't miss "The BOYS" at all! ;o) See, there is something positive that can come from GL10.
Now that is a great attitude.👍
Did you hit 27.5 yet? If not, peddle faster. It's getting lonely up here at the front of the peleton.
😀
No 27.5mph on this ride since I was "distance determined" thanks to self imposed challenge initiated by treedown ;0). Best top speed last year on a break-away to catch friend Ghost Rider with 100+ already on the computer was 30+.
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