T'was ever so, and is so now!

[diogenes]

There is a good article by Josh Glancy in the Sunday Times. In it he demonstrates how consistently wrong the "experts" have been in their forecasts about the recent lifting of lockdown and mask use and how over the whole coronavirus period they have continually made fundamental errors, but without ever admitting these errors. And that this episode is a driver of uninformed rejection of sensible solutions, and the upsurge of conspiracy theory. Sane voices get drowned out and the experts either patronise or dismiss the objectors as cranks. Rings a bell?

[LindaC]

Loud and Clear! Thank you, off to read it. It is their abysmal, cowardly failure to admit they got something 'wrong'. Wondering if Endocrinology gave them 'Deflect and Defeat' classes?

Often attributed to H G Wells, “Statistical literacy for efficient citizenship” comes from Samuel Wilks: “Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write!”

Statistical Literacy—It’s More Than Just Understanding the News

Posted in Statistical Literacy at 5:37 am by schafer

"The title comes from a comment I’ve heard once or twice about statistical literacy—that it’s about being able to understand statistics in the news. There’s nothing wrong with this statement, but I find it disappointing in its lack of gravity. Personally, I’d like to throttle my fellow voters and consumers to make them use evidence-based reasoning. In this post, I give three examples that demonstrate why statistical literacy is needed for efficient citizenship."

“Statistical literacy for efficient citizenship” comes from Samuel Wilks: “Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write!” Wilks said this in his presidential address to the American Statistical Association in 1950. Although he attributed it to H. G. Wells, Wilks’ quote is a beautifully compact paraphrase of a much longer sentence that Wells wrote in 1903. Wells provided the term “efficient citizenship” and Wilks added the modern phrase, “statistical thinking.” The combination, “statistical thinking for efficient citizenship,” is potent in its elegance. (Read the Chance article to learn about the origin and evolution of this quote)."

"Wilks’ quote makes this point: Each individual needs to interpret statistical arguments to make decisions about health, medical treatment, innocence or guilt when serving as a juror, investment, consumer purchases, and politics relating to health, social, economic, educational, and environmental policy. “Efficient citizenship,” I suppose, refers to the benefit to an individual in their activities as a citizen. It could also refer to a collective efficiency that we al enjoy if a majority of people understand statistical thinking–we could waste less time debating the interpretation of evidence (or being fooled by faulty evidence)."

statlit.org/pdf/2006Schafer...

[vocalEK in reply to LindaC]

Recently, here across the pond, the news has been blaring dire warnings about the uptick in cases of COVID. Even the CDC gets into the fear-mongering. Regarding hospitalizations, their web site reports: "The current 7-day average for July 28–August 3 was 7,707. This is a 40.0% increase from the prior 7-day average (5,506) from July 21–July 27. The 7-day moving average for new admissions has consistently increased since June 25, 2021." Wow! A 40% increase. Should I be terrified yet?

Aren't we missing a bit of context here?

[Hidden]

It certainly does …..