Estimating the Number of Men Living with Metastatic Prostate Cancer in the United States

[pjoshea13]

New study below [1].

The U.S. PCa estimates for 2023: 288,300 new cases & 34,700 deaths.

For every PCa death there are 7+ cases not dying of PCa.

Metastatic PCa accounts for most PCa deaths.  Non-metastatic PCa accounts for those who "die with it, not of it."  

Years ago, I estimated the number of men living in the U.S., who once had a PCa diagnosis.  With the most conservative assumptions, I came up with >2 million.  A few years later, I discovered that the number is actually >3 million.

I have used those number to pour cold water on the idea that 'popular' cancer therapies might cure PCa.  With >3 million survivors out there, we would know.  

In the new study, the estimate of men living with metastatic PCa is given as 120,400 on 1/12018.  

About 4%. That's miniscule!  We could all meet up somewhere.  Have an annual convention somewhere nice.  

"The number of men living with MPC in the US exceeds 100,000 and represents a small fraction of the >3 million men living with a prior diagnosis of PC."

-Patrick

[1]  pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/367...

[cesces]

Yes but ... everyone has non-metastatic prostate cancer... until they don't. LoL

For any individual the two categories are not mutually exclusive, they exist on a time continuum.

At least for those of us here.

[cujoe]

How about the NC Mtns for the meet-up? Say maybe, The Grove Park Inn?

[pjoshea13 in reply to cujoe]

Excellent choice!

[cujoe in reply to pjoshea13]

I thought it might have some appeal to you. My late brother got married there. You gotta love that main entry great room with the two walk-in fireplaces, rocking chairs, and terrrace looking out over the Smokies. You pick the date.

[LongevityAT in reply to cujoe]

I'm in! Have a son in Black Mountain.

[cujoe in reply to LongevityAT]

The College located there was temporary home to many notable artists (Albers, Motherwell, Rauschenberg, de Kooning), composers (Cage), dancers (Cunningham) and Bauhaus designers (incl. Gropius & Bucky Fuller). A pretty special place in the history of American arts and design. With the BM College now closed, nearby Warren Wilson College carries on a similar educational tradition.

As you likely know, the Asheville area is rich in past and present culture and arts - and a fine reason to visit your son often. See you there - but don't agree to pick-up the meal tab, if Sir Patrick is doing the wine selection, as I hear from reliable local sources that his tastes in wines runs a bit "rich".

Ciao - K9

[noahware in reply to cujoe]

Don't worry, I'll bring the wine... just pay the corkage fee. My cellar has a few too many bottles for me to finish alone. (And drinking good wine by yourself is no fun, anyway.)

[cujoe in reply to noahware]

Sounds like you and Patrick are destined to be friends for life! Will that be a red or white this evening, Gentlemen?

[noahware in reply to cujoe]

Depends on the meal!

[cujoe in reply to noahware]

Or one of each, just to be prepared.

[Ramp7]

I'd like to say that all this information, almost makes me feel special .

[pjoshea13 in reply to Ramp7]

(Reminder, I can't reply to HU private messages. Use: [e-mail])

[cigafred]

Seems to me that the small number with metastatic PCa implies most who are in this situation do not last long.

[pjoshea13 in reply to cigafred]

True, turnover is brisk. That's why we have to be ten years ahead of SOC.

[MrG68 in reply to cigafred]

What’s the data say on that? Is there any stats on life expectancy of treatments wrt no treatments as a baseline? I assume it’s hard to get because I suspect that most people who have had it metastasized go for the treatments. Just because you have metastasis doesn’t mean that the rate of growth increases, so you can still die with it.

[MrG68]

Do you have access to the SEERs db? I would actually like to know how out of the people who do not take treatments, what their actual life expectancy is. Also, the survival statists (which are relative for those who don’t know) - are these people who don’t take treatments included in the survival stats?

I’ve looked about for this data in tbe past but can’t find it anywhere.

[maley2711 in reply to MrG68]

You can look at the Predict prostate website and enter some typical initial PCa diagnostics......the nomogram will show you probabilities of survival for both men who have treatment and those who don't.......those who didn't accept treatment are from a European database of such men ...perhaps US powers- that- be in the field don't want new patients to know the probabilities for doing nothing? My question is ...did these men used for the PREDICT comparison accept treatment at some later time after already metastasized and symptomatic......always the details of such studies.

Also, Memorial Sloan Kettering has a nomogram for looking at survival probability for men who have no initial treatment...it may be the same European database?

[maley2711]

Do you consider extending survival a "cure" ? I doubt competent Docs would use the word "cure" when talking to patients.

[j-o-h-n]

Cure is when your ex-wife drops dead...............

I think there aren't any more stones or boulders left in Ashville N.C.

Good Luck, Good Health and Good Humor.

j-o-h-n Thursday 02/02/2023 6:27 PM EST

[cujoe in reply to j-o-h-n]

All used in building the Biltmore Estate - or rolled west to Boulder, Co - rolling stoned along the way.

[j-o-h-n in reply to cujoe]

Stands to reason, they Biltmore.............

Good Luck, Good Health and Good Humor.

j-o-h-n Friday 02/03/2023 6:09 PM EST