historical question about pc life expectancy circa 2011

[compiler]

My memory is vague on this. I was dx. 12/2009 (G4+3). Failed surgery and by about 3/2011 failed SRT. I recall reading at that time that the average life expectancy was 6 years. I was about 65 years old. That was upsetting, but it gave me a goal and helped my determination. Nowadays we would never say that. We have many bullets these days. My question: was that even true at that time? I can't find any such statistics. Imight be "misremembering."

[Schwah]

If you Google “metastatic prostate cancer life expectancy”, you will still see posts that indicate that about 2/3 will be dead in 5 years of diagnosis. However that’s stat is no longer applicable and is looking in the rearview mirror. The numerous new drugs and treatments have extended life expectancy greatly since that was written.

Schwah

[Kevinski65]

Yeah , they gave me 6 years. I'm at 10.

[LearnAll]

With every new treatment ,they tout that it increases survival BUT they keep repeating the 30% 5 year survival number . One of the statement has to be wrong. If 5 year survival is still at 30% then, it means all the new treatments which came in last 15 years are totally useless. It can not be so. My guess is that repeating 15 years old number of 30% survival serves the purpose of keeping the fear factor very high to accomplish sale of new and expensive treatments. More fear.. more sales.

[pjoshea13]

For men with mets at diagnosis, it was true that only 30% survived 5 years. Some would have it that things are much better these days, but I doubt that many survive 10 years. Which is why some of us are open to science-based complementary approaches.

I'm being blunt about this because the SOC purists sometimes oversell new therapies IMO.

-Patrick

[Schwah in reply to pjoshea13]

Is it pretty much a known that men with mets at diagnosis generally have a shorter life expectancy than those with BCR? If so what’s the reasoning do you think?

Schwah

[pjoshea13 in reply to Schwah]

I remember that, many years back, my urologist tried to reassure me. I was unaware of the lesion at L5 at the time. He said: " I can keep you alive. ... Unless you get mets. Those guys don't do well."

Well, of course, the guys with mets would be with an oncologist before they died.

I suddenly understood the (US) stats. "The rate of new cases of prostate cancer was 112.7 per 100,000 men per year. The death rate was 18.9 per 100,000 men per year. These rates are age-adjusted and based on 2015–2019 cases and deaths." [SEER]

<17% progress to metastasis. That's why my doc was able to say that most of his patients were with him a long time (& died of something else.)

Two distinct populations. "Died with it - not of it." applies to that other population.

And until there is SOC that leads to a meaningful durable remission for the majority, I shall pursue complementary measures.

-Patrick

[dhccpa in reply to pjoshea13]

Gamechanging, practice changing new treatments are on the way! We're moving to a new frontier...

[pjoshea13 in reply to dhccpa]

After 18 years I lack your optimism. But I hope you are right. -Patrick

[dhccpa in reply to pjoshea13]

Cynics would say I was being sarcastic. Those cynics never let up...

[mrscruffy]

The thing I wonder is were all the people in the study diagnosed at the same timeline? Mine was caught early, I have a neighbor diagnosed at the same time but disease had spread to organs, his life expectancy is far less than mine. Seems that would skew the numbers

[compiler]

I am talking about life expectancy in 2011 after failing the two curative bullets. I still recall it was 6 years, but my research comes up empty. There are articles comparing txs after dx, but nothing that matches my criteria. Then again, I am not a sophisticated researcher. I am almost 13 years post-dx. It has not been easy. Assorted HT uses (great responses to Lupron+Casodex) and then vacations. Assorted scans (C11, best at that time, then Ga-68 PSMA) followed by SBRT to beat back 2 ext. hot nodes each time. Later this month it's another scan (Pylorify PSMA). Hoping for the best.

Mel

[maley2711 in reply to compiler]

Have you asked any MOs??????

[dhccpa in reply to compiler]

Six years is probably just what your doc pulled out of the air.

[Farn]

Does anyone know the breakdown of the subgroups ie Lymph nodes alone best outcome

Bones not so good

Lymph and bones worse still

Lymph bones and visceral worst of all

Then add in high or low volume

Is this the way to assess your survival prognosis ?

[LearnAll in reply to Farn]

Yes. Lymph nodes mildest, Bones moderate, Bones+ lymph nodes moderately severe and Visceral severe..About high volume or low volume...not sure. However, extent of disappearance of mets with ADT is a prognostic marker. So is physical performance level and a bunch of other biomarkers like ALP, Albumin, Hemoglobin, Ferritin, LDH, CRP etc.

Extremely low Nadir PSA achieved is a very important prognostic marker.

[old64horn]

Compiler, I know your history from Healingwell forum. You were diagnosed few months after me. I Gleason 8, I was given the 5 year number at the time of DX and I’m now at over 13 and still around

[dhccpa in reply to old64horn]

Your individual results are just one teeny weeny piece of the results in total. I suspect the overall average is closer to 5 than to 13, even today.

[Dont08759]

As a 32 year metastatic rectal cancer survivor I can tell you for the individual these numbers are meaningless. Life is finite, everyday is a gift! Although none of us will be cured, hopefully your treatment will extend your QOL. Put your energy is research and this site and its contributors are a great start!

[Mischa1111111]

i thinkl that it is unecesarly sadistic and uneccesary for any patient to be told that. Especially dubious ,outdated statistics. Uneccesary fear factors serve no purpose in treatment, recovery , or remission. More forward thinking like the kind you find here is what's really needed.

[SteveTheJ]

I was told, two years ago, 3 to 5 years with stage 4.

[leo2634]

Good morning Brothers, I have extensive bone Mets at diagnosis along with a not so impressive Gleason record of 8s and 9s across the board. I as all of us said well this is it give me my expiration date. I asked my Doctor how long and he said nobody really knows that answer but I promise to do my best to keep you alive and up to date on treatment options that was five years ago. Listen Brothers we all have an expiration date with or without APC so live your life to the fullest. If you want that new car buy it, if you want that dream vacation go. Never give up Never surrender. Leo

[Bspouse in reply to leo2634]

Well said. thank you.