I have read that the PM is of the opinion that England should let nature run its course and those that are old and sick may have to die while the others get the virus and develop immunity to future virus pandemics.
There is a long held belief that exposure to a decease such as chicken pocks at the right age eliminates future dangerous infections when older. Does this work with virus? Each flu like viral contagion is different than the one before and mutation is rapid.
To support this action it appears that every pandemic has had a second wave 4 to 6 months after the first that is much more severe and maybe, perhaps to survive an exposure to the first wave gives the population a fighting chance as the immune system quickly recognizes the new invasion.
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"As a result, British authorities have adopted a very specific policy goal in their approach to Covid-19. The aim is not to prevent the virus’s spread through the general population, which is a foregone conclusion. Rather, the name of the game is delay. British authorities are desperate to hold off on a mass outbreak until the socialized National Health Service has recovered from its chronic winter crisis."
Yup, UK is not advising closing down pubs nor restricting social gatherings. A bold but risky stance. In the US, schools in most states are being closed for at least 6 weeks to contain the spread, especially to limit exposure back to elders/compromised back at home. UK PM isn't...yet.
The initial response of the UK govt was to NOT try to contain it. Partly because they thought they were doomed to failure. Partly because it is expensive, hard work, and no fun. The nominal justification was that we would develop"herd" immunity once 60% of the population has caught it and recovered. Little details like possibly needing half a million hospital beds with oxygen masks, and truck loads of old people dieing unnecessarily were disregarded. They have subsequently started to abandon this idea.
Here in France, my town reported 2 cases 5 days ago (elderly couple returned from Egypt). 2 days later it was 13 cases. Now too many to count. Our friend on the other side of the road has it, as does our friend who owns our favourite bar where we watch the rugby. The country, like Spain and Italy is in lock down for at least 3 weeks. We are probably 3 to 4 weeks ahead of you folk on the other side of the pond, but its coming. Yesterday would be a good day for your governments to start energetic containment action.
That said, as Gio commented in Italy, a bit of self isolation is quite a relaxing novelty. Most people that get it recover.
The name of the game IS delay, not possible to stop it at this point unless in a country where it is in its very initial period of contagion. "Flatten the curve" is the goal, so that medical resources will not be overwhelmed as much, reducing the number of deaths of the critically ill. In this regard, EVERY DAY COUNTS in implementing measures especially social distancing (closures, restrictions, and individual effort) because of the exponential growth curve.
It doesn't. If it did we wouln't have a pandemic sweeping across China and Europe, and now the US. This type of information is a joke...like "gargling" which was previously posted as a "guideline".
Sharon, can you explain why it doesn't work? ALL the recommendations I've seen emphasize this over everything else (aside from social distancing). Done correctly, with soap, for 30 seconds or so, with friction, thoroughly. If this isn't so, I'd like to understand why...
It'll work rebtar, for disinfecting just your hands as long as you soap for at least 20 seconds (most don't). However you still need to be careful about not getting exposed to the infectious droplets in the air. I believe this is the problem, just as in the highly contagious measles that stay in the air for 2 hours (per CDC) after an infected person leaves the room. The Covid-19 just might be even worse and may stay in the air for 3 hours or more. This may explain why so many healthcare professionals who took proper precautions ended up getting infected, despite wearing N95 masks, gloves, and hazmat suits. The S. Koreans are disinfecting everything on empty streets and buildings probably because the virus remain contagious on surfaces for much longer than they've been claiming here, but rather up to 9 days or more depending on temperature/humidity.
If it truly worked, we wouldn't have a pandemic. This virus is not a sanitary type virus where the problem was almost always poor sanitary practices either from a community standpoint (Ebola) or individual (HIV).
In the US, we are projecting about 100 million infections. So, I guess 100 million people don't wash their hands (LOL).
Washing hands for protection is utter nonsense with a bio engineered virus meant to kill, but go ahead if it makes you feel safe.
"Washing hands for protection is utter nonsense with a bio engineered virus meant to kill, but go ahead if it makes you feel safe"
Maybe this is the point, in a pandemic people are panicked and feel helpless and need actionable advice; hand washing won't hurt and does help stop the spread of disease - otherwise people in the operating theater would'nt scrub before surgery.
Will hand washing slow down Covid-19 transmission; possibly if people are using real soap made by saponification, with a ph of at least 8 (alkaline). Unfortunately the commercial hand "soaps" on the market are surfactants/detergents produced through ethoxylation (synthetic soap).
I soak all fresh produce in a saturated water/bicarbonate solution to deactivate pesticide residues and bacteria - wouldn't the same principle be true for viruses?
It's interesting you called out Covid-19 as bio engineered, it's a bit like a hit and run.
So, if we take your hypothesis to its limit, the Italians are filthy people who never wash their hands, have terrible personal hygiene habits, don't use any soap and water at any time, and the Iranians are not far behind.
And when the French and Spanish continue their exponential rise, they have the same problem. And he Brits, when they let their country "die off", they tell them not to wash their hands to speed up the process.
Hand washing in theory prevents infection when you touch a contaminated surface and then touch your eyes, nose, or mouth. Hand washing does not stop you from inhaling airborne virus droplets which is the presumed primary method of infection for Covid-19. In hospitals, hand washing was shown to reduce infections, and, of course, there is the famous story of Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis. He was a doctor in the 1800s and discovered that simply washing his hands before delivering a baby dramatically reduced mortality from infection amongst his child bearing patients. Sadly he died still being ridiculed for his ideas so much so that the government actually put him in an insane asylum. Not until years later when the "germ theory" gained prevalence did the medical profession realize how far ahead of his time he was.
It's too bad that the majority people historically resort to ridiculing until a major paradigm shift. Those who are most educated in their specialties tend to be the most closed minded, unfortunately.
supramolecular chemists aren't virologists. If you want to know about the frontiers of nanotechnology, they are the ones.
Thankfully, we have a lot of virologists and microbiologists on the forum to help explain what is going on after reading all the fascinating microbiology studies on COVID-19 published in Chinese. Wonder how the Chinese got a leg up on everyone else?
Washing your hands won't help if someone coughs in your face. But it is highly effective at eliminating virus contagion by contact for the reasons others have posted about lipid dissolution. Once again your obsession with misinforming is at best unhelpful
This forum needs someone like yourself (and others) who are expert, highly qualified microbiologists and virologists. "lipid dissolution".? Do you (or they) even know what it means or are in your "regurgitating without meaning" mode? Obviously the latter.
This virus is bio engineered Winnie and washing your hands won't help you or your french neighbors, nor did it help them.
Believe whatever you want to believe, go deep into the rabbit hole of denial, but don't tell your infected neighbors they didn't wash their hands often enough.
Hand washing doesn't help. It didn't help the Italians. It won't help the French or Spaniards or the Brits, or those of us in the US, or elsewhere.
Just cos you got your basic sums wrong on pharmacokinetics of c/l...
Curious how the resposible genuine scientists haven't picked up on the bio-engineering. Nor the moon landing being faked in a Hollywood studio, the CIA organising 9/11, nor the alien spacecraft in new Mexico bunkers
I was wondering if the researchers showed which animal origin this virus comes from. Bats say but it is not clear how it passed to man. This would do some clarity of the origin.
Sharon, normally I view your comments as curmudgeonly and lacking grace, batty but harmless. Directly contradicting World Health Organisation advice, whose efficacy has been demonstrated in China and South Korea, moves beyond arrogance to dangerously irresponsible. One can only hope most people have the sense to treat your advice with the derision it deserves
Obviously other measures are also essential , but "Hand washing doesn't help. It didn't help the Italians. It won't help the French or Spaniards or the Brits, or those of us in the US, or elsewhere." is plain wrong.
Like so much of your misinformation, misrepresented as expertise - WRONG. And on this occasion , NOT HARMLESS.
"You do have to be vigorous with your hand-washing though. That’s why the advice is that hands should be washed thoroughly for at least 20 seconds."
I wonder how many people actually rub their hands for over 20 seconds - this is a long time when you actually time yourself.
I vividly remember from a science lab a long ago with an experiment with several Petri dishes with increasing durations of hand soaping, and I thought over 20 seconds of vigorous rubbing was an overkill. The Petri dishes proved me wrong.
The advice given to us is to sing happy birthday twice while soaping, then rinse thoroughly. As gymbag pointed out once you are in lock down as we are, and no longer in rooms full of people coughing droplets direct into the air we breathe, you are still at risk from someone coughing into their hands and then pushing the supermarket trolley before you push it and then rub your eyes.
Washing your hands to 2 verses of happy birthday is essential protection there.
Citing WHO is well meaning, but if you look at their response to this situation, it wasn't inspiring. You can believe whatever you want, but this virus is not a "sanitation" virus, as I have repeatedly told you.
And as discussed extensively on this thread part of the transmission chain includes hand to face contact and washing hands has been demonstrated as effective.
China and South Korea followed who guidance and have achieved success. Today, China with a population of 1.3bn reported 12 new cases
Well stated and true. As previously written, The virus has a lipid outer layer that will be stripped away by anything that will bond with the oils and remove them. But it takes a little time and remembering to do it. The information is out there but you have to verify by going back to the basics: why does it work does that make sense?
The mechanism is very simple. Tiny little microscopic animals that can live for several hours on a door knob. (unless the door knob is copper than it survives only a few minutes) ,now they are on your hand. Now depending on how many of them can find their way into your body and how quickly the colony can grow it is a race between your immune system and the colony to make enough white blood cells to suit this new invader. Wash your hands or stick your finger up your nose , your choice , big decision and most of us don't even think about it. Big lack of basic training in hygiene that must change. Why are all the handrails ,doorknobs, pulls and handles on shopping carts not copper coated, especially in hospitals ? We have known about copper's attributes for over one hundred years, but we still save a dollar.
Washing works but you need a sink and water but wipes or alcohol gel in a pump bottle is handy and quick and works also.
But "antibody dependent enhancement" might make the ones who had it in the first wave have it worse in the second wave. I am trying to verify this with the experts.
What is your intent in posting? I get that you are well educated, but I feel that you can adjust your posts to be more helpful if that is your intent. If your intent is to gain pleasure from condescending to folks on HU then so far you are apparently succeeding.
As an example you could explain why hand washing is a false hope in non-pejorative terms.
Anti-bacterial solutions (soaps, etc.) are effective for viruses that are primarily due to "poor sanitation" and have a low level of "virulence' (transmission). COVID-19 does not fit that description remotely. It is 3x-10x more virulent than the seasonal flu.
IOW, if you think COVID-19 is a variant of seasonal flu, by all means wash your hands, sanitize your dishes, etc.
However, when you have a synthetic or bio engineered virus, like COVID-19, anti-bacterials are relatively ineffective because transmission and mortality rates don't depend on personal hygiene but probably several "co-factors" some of which we know about, some we don't. Age is just one of them. Not the only one.
Remember, individuals can remain contagious for extended periods of time without showing overt symptoms and contagion does not necessarily lead to mortality, but it can with alarming rapidity and significantly higher rates than seasonal flu.
IMO, the available statistics tell us that this virus is absolutely nothing like anything we have seen before. Therefore, previous measures for viruses like the seasonal flu are inadequate.
Social isolation will probably become the gold standard for the time being.
I wasn’t asking for a definition of “bio engineered”. I was asking for a citation for proof that this virus was bio engineered. So, do you have such a citation?
I doubt we will ever get a "citation" in the near future explaining how the class 4 lab in Wuhan developed it. Very unlikely, but it certainly didn't come from the fish market.
This bio-engineered conspiracy theory originated from a shoddy bioRxiv research that's been debunked and withdrawn.
"The rapid, open, and transparent sharing of data on this outbreak is now being threatened by rumours and MISINFORMATION around its origins. We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin. Scientists from multiple countries have published and analysed genomes of the causative agent, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2),1 and they overwhelmingly conclude that this coronavirus originated in wildlife,2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 as have so many other emerging pathogens...Conspiracy theories do nothing but create fear, rumours, and prejudice that jeopardise our global collaboration in the fight against this virus. "
"“From everything I’ve looked at, there is zero evidence for genetic engineering; it looks like normal evolution,” ...
“Thousands of mutations are distributed across the genome. If you’re engineering something, you wouldn’t do that. There are no signals for biological engineering. It looks like natural evolution,”
"We sign this statement in solidarity with all scientists and health professionals in China who continue to save lives and protect global health during the challenge of the COVID-19 outbreak"
The irony is that you didn’t even use a dangling participle. She was attempting to humiliate you using an “as if” narrative. She is callously being a troll.
A secret document was written by the Public Health England (PHE)...
The PHE document says that: "As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation."
Very similar to Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty's earlier comments.
So, finally in the US we have extensive testing alongside data. First, consider the Diamond Princess. 21 employees that were infected served passengers for days before the alarm was sounded. Then 83% of the passengers did NOT got the virus, and of the 17% who did get the virus 48% or so never had symptoms AND NO ONE DIED.
The US is testing 10s of thousands per day and so far you have a mortality rate WAY lower than the lowest estimate from the WHO. Why? My guess . . . bad data out of China? Would that be a surprise to anyone? I know . . . I know . . . the pessimist will say just wait the death toll will rise. My answer is that so will the number of positive tests.
Next question why is Italy so bad off? Because Italians die from the flu WAY more than the rest of the world based on their age and habits, but that is NOT new news. It IS new news to CNN.
Prediction: US sees less than 500 new cases per day by mid-May, and total deaths in the US from Covid-19 total less than 5,000 as compared to 10,000 plus or minus 5,000 every year from the flu, and at the same time government does a high five saying the Social Distancing was the reason so all credit should go to Cuomo and Trump even though they have most likely tanked the global economy for the next year all for a few thousand lives out of 7.5 billion.
Test kits are almost nonexistent at this point in the USA unless you happen to be a professional sports player or rich. Trump only recently ordered test kits in quantity and there are not even enough kits for medical patients working with SARS COV-2 Covid -19 to be regularly tested to make sure they have not become infected, so the "real" case numbers are not going to be available for some time. The three worst areas at this time are New York state and surrounding areas, Washington state and San Francisco.
Italy just had 5000 new cases in one 24 hr period.
Can we handle that?
It almost seems like there is multiple variations of this virus . Italy and the Diamond Princess is a good comparison.
I think the only way that they will trash the economy is if it does not bounce back in 6 months because the death rate is still increasing . The stock market is calling it different than you.
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