I found this formula which helps you to decide whether you should get vaccinated. I’m not sure how useful it is since you have to be able to estimate various probabilities accurately, but at least it provides a framework. I haven’t yet worked out whether it says I should get vaccinated or not:
REMOVED LINK BY ADMIN
If you have not understood what's going on after 2 years and a half, you definitely should get vaccinated!
If you have not understood what's going on after 2 years and a half, you definitely should NOT get vaccinated! Rather try getting better informed!
The issue I have with this formula is the emphasis on financial loss, as if the only consequences that matter is potential loss of income. It’s not possible to predict whether someone develops long Covid, for example, and how long LC last is like asking how long is a piece of string. The other part that is impossible to predict are secondary infections like pneumonia or even a lesser respiratory infection. Some of the “costs” of Covid sequelae can’t really be priced in advance. As things stand, I won’t be offered a Covid vaccination this year. A diagnosis of paroxysmal AF doesn’t qualify. So it’s either Covid infection or avoiding being infected by chance being my only options, which aren’t really options as there’s no choice involved.
Totally agree, Bee
I think it would be possible to re-write the middle term (S/I) so that it is not expressed in monetary terms. For example you could replace it with a ratio which would express something like anticipated psychological or physical distress caused side effects of the vaccine/anticipated psychological or physical distress caused by contracting the virus.
The way many people decide is to consider the risk of not vaccinating versus the risks of infection, taking into account the risk profile of the individual. Personally, the immediate after effects eg 24-36h of systemic flu like symptoms wasn’t part of the decision because that’s how the immune system works. That was my immune system mounting a very robust response, but it’s also possible to have a very good response without systemic symptoms. So that part of the equation was a moot point in my view. This year I’ve been deemed ineligible for the Covid and the flu vaccine so it’s not a decision I get to make.
IMO the writer is pulling legs - many of his other articles are satirical and this particular one talks about logic but is clearly quite silly - very amusing 😂 .
I don”t think that that is so- he says he was influenced by a pre-Covid 2005 paper which was an attempt to provide a way of deciding on whether to get vaccinated. See: city.ac.uk/__data/assets/pd...
After all, this is a real practical issue which confronts many people, including many people here.
I hope it assists you ……good luck
I don’t see it as being of great practical value. It just provides a very loose framework to structure thinking on the issue-a way to compare risks and benefits.
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I live in South Africa and the Government seems to have forgotten that Covid exists!. When the pandemic was first announced we were bombarded with information and stations were set up for vaccination purposes and masks and sanitizers compulsory in shops. These have all gone and the virus is never mentioned. The Government spent millions on vaccine, but the mass of the population were very limited in their uptake and observance of precautions., and much of it had to be destroyed. Statistics are no longer broadcast. I had my first 2 and a booster , but I don't even know if further vaccination is available. Everyone carries on as if it never happened!
Pretty much the same as in the UK! It seems that the US is, rightly, now taking the situation more seriously by developing by new vaccines and treatments etc ..
Yes, there's huge money to be made!!!!
That's really interesting. I seem to recall So Africa called their own shots, so to speak, and it worked out well. Do you have any stats on Covid cases and deaths? In my recent reading, the more shots per country, the more cases and deaths.
Deaths were high in Europe due to the aging population compared to Africa. Countries like Spain and Italy were especially hard hit due to multigenerational living (and coz Italy got it first).
That might explain the difference
I don't I'm afraid as they ceased giving out that information some time ago. Whether 'herd immunity' took over, I would not like to say, as a large percentage of our Black population did not have vaccinations, either for superstitious reasons or logistical ones and they represent 80% of the population. Suffice it to say, I have not heard of any deaths among people known to me and even visiting doctors (I was at my Cardiologist on Tuesday) there is no sanitizing solution to use, he was unmasked as were his assistants who operated the 'machines' and there was no perspex shield on his desk, and his consulting suite is in a private hospital. Whether this has worked, more by non compliance by people, time will tell ! It would seem however, the country would rank among the low shot countries !
As one who is just getting over it after every vaccination going. Who knows. Do wonder how I would have suffered without them
Interesting article on BBC More of Less podcasts a few weeks ago about lives lost to Covid jab vs lives lost to Covid. No surprise than Covid is far far more dangerous than the jab by masses (sorry, can't remember the exact figure). I ended up being cardioverted after my first Covid jab but I have had everyone since with no problem and hope to get a fourth soon. My only precaution is that I won't have it at the same time as the flu jab (because that once triggered AFib. but only once out of 10 or so vaccinations).
People forget very quickly about the first two Covid waves, although as a population we have more immunity from a combination of vaccines and infection. Complacency is the enemy. I don’t think we’re past Covid yet. The vaccination programme exists to keep the most vulnerable out of hospital, but we still don’t know how not vaccinating the under 65s will play out, especially as new variants continue to emerge.
Hopefully us heart people will be offered it too x
I’m advised that paroxysmal AF doesn’t put people at high risk from Covid so I’m not going to be eligible this year. Not eligible for NHS flu vaccine either but have the option of paying for it.
I get a free flu jab due to paroxysmal afib!
I hope you can stay free of the flu this year. It’s been a good few years since I’ve had it.
I'm booked in for flu jab, but when I went to the various chemists over the last few years and was gonna pay, they didn't charge as I'm eligible for a free one!
I’ve just had a phone appointment with a cardiologist this morning and asked him about the advisability of having the vaccine. He said “what we do know is that Covid is bad for the heart. I’d advise you and other patients with AF to have the vaccine in line with government recommendations.” He also said that there is still a lack of research on whether the vaccine can trigger AF.
It may be a trigger for AF. I wouldn’t rule it out. As almost every person here already has AF, they may well experience an AF episode after a vaccine, but the risk of having a severe Covid infection could come with more severe complications, including cardiac. It’s always about the relative risks. No option is risk free, including the do nothing option.
I’ve been called for a free flu jab due to PAF. Mine’s booked this weekend & I was invited by text from my GP. I have no other comorbidities and am under 65, so it is definitely recently diagnosed PAF that has classed me as eligible.
That’s good to know. 👍
For sure. I would query it again if you particularly want one.
gov.uk/government/publicati...
Link to those eligible. Anyone with ‘a heart problem’ is on the list.
I was told to strictly keep a gap of six weeks between covid and 'flu. I had a strict time table to adhere to. Pneumococcal booster due, followed by gap of 2 weeks for Covid booster (the only one I have had) then six weeks for 'flu. Worked out well in the Southern Hemisphere as I was able to have my 'flu at the end of March in advance of winter !
I don't think I made myself clear as I meant I'd had a stand alone fly jab nowhere near a Covid jab. But good points and I'm glad it worked out so well for you x
I’m not keen on having them at the same time, though I don’t have a particular reason. Just giving my body a little time to work on one first. Although I’ve just got one week between this year. Booked a private flu jab at Boots, then I will just tell them I don’t need the jab when I get the Covid one. I have tended to get a bad headache the day after the Moderna jab - or jag as we say up here.
The main thing I noticed in the article was the note that the formula is just on a personal rather than a societal level. To protect the most people it seems to me that vaccination is the obvious choice. People have short memories.
I agree it’s better to have them spaced out.
There's a lot more serious illnesses than covid around,they can stick their jabs where the sun don't shine.
What nobody seems to be taking into account here is natural immunity conferred by infection. If you have had covid especially before any vaccination then you have made antibodies to all parts of the virus and not just to the spike protein which is the antigen in the vaccine. It is this that is rapidly mutating and any bivalent vaccines developed are always playing "catch up". Although antibodies decline from natural infection ( and even more rapidly from the vaccines alone) the response of other parts of the immune system remain . It was found that people who were infected by the original SARS - for which no successful vaccine was ever developed- still had T and B cell responses 17 years later.It is now widely accepted that these covid vaccines do not prevent transmission and infection. Indeed a study done last year by Cleveland Clinics on their employees ( thousands of people) showed clearly that those who had the most jabs were infected the most. There are people who have had several jabs without reaction and then with the next one get a bad reaction. It's a bit like Russian roulette.
Epidemiologists reckon that the majority of people have had a covid infection by now whether vaccinated or not. Some people have had it several times despite having all the jabs going. I must be one of the minority who has never had it . But then I have had no respiratory infection since March 2016. Not even a cold.
The Cleveland Clinic study did not find that vaccines increase COVID-19 infection risk. There was no causal link found.
Vaccines/boosters reduce the risk of getting severely ill with COVID and of developing Long Covid, the evidence is absolutely clear.
Recent studies have also shown categorically that viral load is a key determinant in infection, regardless of vaccine or previous infection. So measures to reduce this, ventilation, masking, isolation all play a role in reducing infection risk.
Perhaps you would care to read what I actually said and not try to straw man me by making out I said something different. I said that the Cleveland Clinic study showed that those who had had more vaccines had a higher rate of infection than those who had had fewer. Because this correlation is what it did show. The researchers were not expecting this finding and one might expect that it was an unwelcome one. The co author of the study Dr Nahin Shrestha said that determining whether getting more doses of the covid 19 vaccine can later cause greater susceptibility to infections wasn't the point of the study. You can bet your bottom dollar it wasn't. The point was no doubt to show that all was hunky dory and persuade reluctant employees to get yet another booster. If I remember rightly the first bivalent booster was jab no 5.Shrestha said he did not know the explanation for the findings suggesting a confounding factor and the study said " The unexpected finding of increasing risk with increasing numbers of prior covid 19 vaccine doses needs further study" . Well maybe they could get out their immunology textbooks and remind themselves that during the 2/3 weeks following a vaccination whilst the body is busy making antibodies against the antigen there is a higher risk of infection not just of the vaccination target pathogen but other pathogens as well. The data from Worldometers and John's Hopkins shows large peaks of covid infections following the roll out of vaccines. This also happened with smallpox vaccination. Because most people do not know about this increased vulnerability they mistakenly think they are protected once they have rolled up their sleeve. Often when infected they mistakenly think the vaccination caused the infection directly. Or perhaps the researchers at Cleveland should look at a subsequent study which showed a switch to IgG4 antibodies following multiple mRNA vaccines to see if that provides an explanation for their findings. They could test their employees for antibody type.
It is very difficult for an observational study to show causal link though I understand this is possible using Bradford -Hill criteria. But this applies as well to the observational studies that show that vaccines / boosters work as purported. The biggest confounder is healthy vaccinee bias. That is the fact that vaccinated and unvaccinated populations differ substantially and vaccinated populations are healthier in general before they have rolled up their sleeves. Studies of healthy vaccinee bias with flu vaccines have shown that once this confounder is eliminated there is no benefit to flu vaccines. However given the healthy vaccinee bias one would expect that the vaccinated would have fewer infections not more .
The Cleveland Clinic study showed that getting the bivalent booster was associated with a 29% reduction in risk of getting BA4 and BA5 the Omicron subvariants the booster targeted, that were actually being superceded by the next wave of BQ variants for which the effectiveness was only 20%. The study showed that the soon to be dominant XBB variants were not protected against at all. This is a pathetic level of protection and one that is way below the 50% necessary to get a vaccine licensed. And surprise surprise less than the manufacturers RCTs showed.
With the evaluation of the covid vaccines there is also a very large elephant in the room. The practice of consigning those who caught covid in the " vulnerability window" (2/3 weeks after vaccination) into the "unvaccinated" category. There are statisticians who point out that this practice of dumping the recently injected into the unvaccinated or unboosted category with no consistency between studies( some waiting 1,2or even 3 weeks before declaring people duly vaxxed) skews the picture and without it the picture in favour of the vaccinations would be a lot less rosy. With the first series of jabs there was often a gap of even more weeks before 1st and 2nd jabs due to shortages of supply.
Hi, I have taken vaccines all my life including Covid and never had a reaction worse than a sore arm, though I did get shingles before there was a vaccine
I think the decisions is very complex as there has been a rise in younger excess deaths since the vaccinations started . How you can possibly work out why is beyond me. I do think the risk benefit algorithm has probably changed. I've had flu vaccs for years probably about 30! I've had 6 covid vaccs but amvery ambivalent about a seventh if offered. Life is complicated as I understand and have met, some who have had long standing issues after vaccination but also folk with long covid following infection. Is there any research yet to say whether vaccs reduce long covid in infected people?? I know vaccination does not nec protect against infection or prevent transmission.
Apparently there is some doubt concerning whether a vaccine will stop some of the new variants at all-we have to wait and see. It’s very obvious that Covid isn’t going to go away.
Hi
I'm an ex nurse.
I've had 5 vacs. Latest Omicron variant.
Only 2nd vac nurse didnt put it in muscle so it spread into surrounding tissue. A big red and itchy spot. Put on Doxycycline. It disappeared.
cheers JOY. 74 (NZ)
As a healthcare professional, if it's offered I will take it. As I take the flu jab when offered every year.
Good Morning, please can we ensure all posts are related to atrial fibrillation. We discourage posts that are unrelated and do not provide proven accurate information endorsed by the Charity and will be removed without prior warning.
Many thanks for your understanding.
I’d like to point out that the formula quoted in the article- now removed- did not provide inaccurate information; it described a mathematical relationship between variables. It was based on a paper from City University London “Understanding individuals’ decisions about vaccination: a comparison between Expected Utility and Regret Theory models.” The link to this paper was provided in the article, so anyone who had concerns could have checked its derivation in that paper.
On the question of relevance, research and clinical observations have indicated a potential link between COVID-19 vaccines and cardiac complications, including atrial fibrillation. While these cases may not be very common, they are of significant interest to those who may be concerned about potential side effects and their impact on AF.
Finally, I couldn’t help wondering whether criticism of the article from some-referred to earlier- was based on vaccine hesitancy or opposition?
genuinely no idea why people are still having this vaccine to be perfectly honest. I don’t know anyone who’s had any vaccines related to covid for probably a year now at least. Covid is no different from any other bug making the circuits for me but what do I know 🤷♂️
The cardiologist today said that he recommended that people follow the government guidelines and have the vaccine if they are over 65 or classified as vulnerable. He also pointed out that Covid can cause AF even if you don’t already have it. If you are under 65 and not classified as vulnerable (which you are not if you just have AF) then strictly it’s not advised by government. However, GPs have told me during consultations that people with AF should also have the vaccine in their view. I suppose lifestyle is a factor- if you are a lighthouse keeper you might not need to worry!
I don’t think you need to worry either way
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