Afibbers, Coronavirus and death probability - AF Association

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Afibbers, Coronavirus and death probability

mirtilla
mirtilla

A study on 2003 people dead in Italy with Covid-19 has been published yesterday and it contains

data on the pre-existing diseases for a subset of 355 of them

Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf

It is shown that 24.5% of the dead, in large part men in their seventies and eighties, had atrial fibrillation. Considering that around only about 10% of people above 70 have atrial fibrillation (sources are not precise or concordant) would someone with a flare in mathematics, which I do not have, make some assumptions on the death probability of an afibber catching the coronavirus?

61 Replies
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You should bear in mind that many many people in their 70s and 80s have AF ...(.whether they are aware of it or not) and they may well have other comorbities which contributed to their death .

From sample.

...Respiratory failure was the most commonly observed complication in this sample (97.2%

of cases), acute kidney damage (27.8%)...

...had 1 pathology, 91 had 2 pathologies (25.6%) and 172 (48.5%) had 3 or more pathologies...

...median age: patients who died 80.5 years...

Mirtilla asked

--would someone make some assumptions on the death probability of an afibber catching the coronavirus--

Based on this one study I would not draw any negative conclusions. It doesn't state how many other conditions the afibbers had also. 5% of those who died had diarrhea - did the afibbers have it too ?

IMO there is nowhere enough data there to draw any conclusions about a connection in the death rate concerning a-fib and Covid - 19 ;-)

Paul

I'd rather not 🙈🙉🙊

Paulbounce
Paulbounce
in reply to Buffafly

Heh - my vindaloo's off the menu today Buttafly ;-)

Paul

CDreamer
CDreamer
in reply to Paulbounce

Because?

Paulbounce
Paulbounce
in reply to CDreamer

5% of those who died had diarrhea. Vindaloo can have cause and effect.

Enjoy your day CD ;-)

Paul

CDreamer
CDreamer
in reply to Paulbounce

🤨

Morzine
Morzine
in reply to Paulbounce

Ha ha......will tell my hubby then.....no more vindaloo!

I really don’t think this is a useful study to read unless you know exactly how to interpret these types of statistics. Paul has given a reasonable assessment which seems to be a reasonable supposition so apart from keeping up with the general, down to earth advice on how to keep yourself safe I wouldn’t go looking for things to worry over.

Catching the virus is due to contact with "infected" individuals/environment.

The state of one's immune system would determine how well the virus will be overcome, and the duration (not a doctor just thinking out loud).

The report shows that the more chronic conditions that are already present in the patient, the greater the likelihood of death (sample of 355 deaths in Italy):

0 precondition - 0.8% died, 3 patients.

1 25.1% , 89 patients

2 25.6%, 95 patients

3 and more 48.5%, 172 patients

The complete breakdown from the report (patients with prior condition):

Ischemic heart disease (117) 33.0

%

Atrial fibrillation (87) 24.5

%

Stroke (34) 9.6

%

Artrial hypertension (270) 76.1

%

Diabetes mellitus (126) 35.5

%

Dementia (24) 6.8 %

COPD (Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) (47) 13.2

%

Active cancer in the past 5 years (72) 20.3

%

Chronic liver disease (11) 3.1

%

Chronic renal failure (64) 18.0%

Perhaps we will soon have a larger sample from Chinese patients to analyse?

sleeksheep
sleeksheep
in reply to saulger

How Serious is the Coronavirus? Infectious Disease Expert Michael Osterholm Explains


He makes the point that 65% of those who died in China were smokers and the high rate of severe infections in the under 40 age group in Italy is also associated with smoking.

Obesity and smoking are right up there with comorbidity's

saulger
saulger
in reply to sleeksheep

Thank you.

The probability of someone with AF *catching* the virus would seem to be the same as for anyone else in the relevant age group (i.e. having AF doesn't make it more likely you will *catch* the virus). The probability of dying from the virus of one has AF is another matter.

saulger
saulger
in reply to Samazeuilh

Samazeuilh. How did you determine that AF plays no part in patient morbidity?

Hilly22
Hilly22
in reply to saulger

Hi saulger. I don’t think he did, did he?

saulger
saulger
in reply to Hilly22

Apologies. I glossed over the "catching" part. completely my misreading.

Hilly22
Hilly22
in reply to saulger

Easily done 😊

Samazeuilh
Samazeuilh
in reply to saulger

I said it “would seem” that it is no more likely that someone with AF would *catch* the virus. Based on a conversation with a cardiac nurse. It is, however, likely that AF has the potential to cause problems if one contracts the virus in her view.

Can you give a reference please? Where is the report published and/or web address.

Thanks, Andrew

It's in Italian, and I used Google Translate.

epicentro.iss.it/coronaviru...

Challiefan
Challiefan
in reply to saulger

Oh god. Good luck with that - LOL.

So a higher number of patients died that had pre-existing conditions including af.Most of these patients were also older and, as such, would have a declining functioning of their immune system due to age.This is not at all surprising and the message is clear to all who are older and/or suffering from pre-existing health conditions......keep away from others and follow the advice given.An individual study is informative but has to be compared with other studies to be verifiable.It suggests certain conclusions may be drawn but it is not definitive.In the meantime let's be supportive of each other and get through this crisis and then look back and reflect on it.

Did it mention how many were already in hospital and how many were in Care Homes? The figures we are getting on the news here in Italy are very confusing. Also each Province is different.

Until this crisis is over it will be difficult to draw proper conclusions.How is it where you are paolina? It seems very bad from what I see from UK news reports.

To be quite honest my husband and I (he's 80 & Italian I'm 73) are in a state of confusion, we are under the impression that things are not being said or are not being made clear, we are in Padova (Padua) Veneto region. We can't understand why there are so many deaths in Bergamo, and no one is giving any explanation. From what we can see Padova hasn't been hit very hard, but we do have a big teaching hospital & university here, we are now being told that from tomorrow supermarkets will be closed at the week-end and we will only be allowed to go 200 metres away from where we live unless we have permission,after being told that things are getting better. Shopping is already un pleasant, 1 person per family is allowed to shop and you have to wait till someone comes out before going in, and always keep 1 metre apart. Schools will probably not open again until after the summer. As far as we know most deaths have been in the region of 80 yrs old with other pathologies. Most Italians live in condominiums a lot with no garden round, so there's going to be a lot of depressed suicidal people around, to say nothing about the unhealthy, obese lacking in vitamin D ones. Sorry I'm going on a bit aren't I?

No not at all.I think we are moving towards lockdown here too.At the moment there are no rules re. shopping and it's the law of the jungle in there but I can see that changing soon.

The issue of people's mental health is a real concern.I run a drop in group for people affected by serious mental illness, most of whom live alone.We normally meet Friday night but have had to stop to comply to social distancing guidelines and many people have health issues.I fear for their wellbeing during this crisis.

So the virus is pretty localized in Italy too.There are some horrific stories about those over 60 not getting ventilators because of demand...truly scary.Keep well.

Desanthony
Desanthony
in reply to paolina

Paolina,

We have been reading in the Guardian newspaper and on hearing on BBC world service that Padua did well by continually testing for coronovirus in the whole population. I will try and share the link for that if I can find it. Here it is

theguardian.com/commentisfr...

Just wondering if you had heard that.

paolina
paolina
in reply to Desanthony

Thanks for your kind thought, but I'm English married to an Italian and living here in Padova (Padua) for the last 40 years! Had to use the name Paolina (which I hate) because when I joined the group that was the only name they'd accept.

mirtilla
mirtilla
in reply to paolina

Paolina is lovely in Italian....

This report shows that 76% were suffering from high blood pressure (Ipertensione arteriosa).

Many millions of people are taking ACE inhibitors for hypertension.

There is research indicating these drugs increase the amounts of an enzyme the coronavirus uses to infect the body.

Do these drugs exacerbate covid-19 making a serious infection potentially deadly, especially for older people?

I have asked my doctor, the Department of Health and my parmacist about this but they don't seem to know anything.....could this be the factor that makes this virus so dangerous for people with high blood pressure?

Anybody know anything about this?

mirtilla
mirtilla
in reply to tunybgur

can you give a reference for this research on ACE inhibitors please?

Morzine
Morzine
in reply to tunybgur

I think the guy in Boris team covered this the other day...there was a rum our that certain BP tabs were dodgy with the virus, but the medical guy said yes he’d seen the rumors but it wasn’t the case as they saw it.....

tunybgur
tunybgur
in reply to Morzine

Yes, my GP said the same when I asked for alternatives, unfortunately they seem to require positive proof, however that often takes years to produce, circumstantial evidence can be very compelling but not enough....remember smoking and cancer?

Hope it doesn't kill me....

If you google the subject there is an increasing amount of data on this, but the link below shows a good synopsis:

www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/cl...

mirtilla
mirtilla
in reply to tunybgur

Thanks

There is also data coming out of Wuhan that those with very low LDL fared worse than those with higher LDL. How many elderly people are taking cocktails of drugs including statins and hypertensives? The older hypertensives which actually do the job just as well are rarely prescribed as doctors are persuaded by Pharma and more importantly by KOLs who are bribed by Pharma into prescribing something more "innovative" ie more expensive. Epidemiological studies have shown for years that as we age we need our cholesterol as it protects us against infection. But the orthodoxy still insists that even marginally over the "norm"levels should be treated in older people. You can bet your bottom dollar that the link between comorbidities and the cocktail of drugs used to treat them will not be explored in any depth. Low dose aspirin is still an anti inflammatory. How many older people take that? My husband does and I am going to look to see if I can find any info as to how curcumin or bromelain compare as anti aggregants.

RICH22
RICH22
in reply to Auriculaire

so far, i have fired 4 cardiologists who demand i take eliquis instead of aspirin, even after i describe having tried it 3 times, with disasterous results: weakness so bad i could not get out of bed to pee!! i have yet to get a yes or no answer to one very important question: can blood clots form without platelets?

that is what i ask, when drs. tell me that aspirin is only an anti-platelet, not an anticoagulant. turns out there are over a dozen "clotting factors"... NONE of which can happen without the final step being PLATELET CASCA

DE.

Making the distinction between the "new generation" blood "thinners" (also a misnomer) as being more effective anti-coagulants than the ineffective anti-platelet aspirin is a Big Pharma lie, in my humblest opinion.

ALL the blood thinners are Rxed to PERHAPS prevent blood clots. They do NOT treat anything, only the POSSIBILITY of something happening.

All based on risk factors, not on observable conditions. i take half a regular 325mg aspirin when starting my day and half before retiring. The coumarin/coumadin poison first killed my uncle, then his brother, my dad. i begged Dad not make the same mistake his brother did, but could not shake his faith in doctors.

i hope this helps. good luck and stay safe. PS. i substituted Red Yeast Rice for the more toxic pharmaceutical statins. the rice has a natural statin but a full compliment of enzymes that ameliorate the harm concentrated statins do.

Auriculaire
Auriculaire
in reply to RICH22

Why do you want to reduce your cholesterol anyway? Aspirin is an anti inflammatory and these are being advised against with regard to the virus.

RICH22
RICH22
in reply to Auriculaire

I do my own research, know enough organic chem to understand technical terms. Anti-inflammatory substances can't possibly be contra-indicated for a viral infection, especially non-steroidal and low dose. Believe the doctors' words are gospel at your own peril. They make mistakes, being humans. I may be wrong, but I doubt it. Have had maybe 3 colds in the last 30 years, taking the array of vits and supplements. That is good enough evidence for me to keep on keepin on. Good luck, my friend.

Auriculaire
Auriculaire
in reply to RICH22

Having been poisoned several times over the last 30 years with fluoroquinolone antibiotics I am certainly not inclined to take the words of doctors as gospel. However I am more likely to take notice of them if they say not to take a Pharma drug than if they recommend it . And I trust more ( but not absolutely of course) the gang of heretic French doctors at the AIMSIB website than I do the charlatans who regard cholesterol as an enemy and insist on reducing it .

RICH22
RICH22
in reply to Auriculaire

i should clarify: i agree that cholesterol and tryglycerides are not the frankenstein monsters that up to 20 yrs ago drs. made them out to be. My jury is still out, about the various types of LDLs and HDLs humans ingest, produce, how they're metabolized, etc. For me, as always, the bottom line is how i feel. My body generally lets me know what's happening inside.

10 yrs ago, i had achieved "morbid obesity," with cholesterol and triglyceride levels thru the roof. I was 63, sexually active, could still run to the car if it were raining, etc. but by 2014, a comprehensive checkup revealed over 8 co-morbidities, from hypertension, type 2 diabetes and Afib to bone marrow and prostate cancers.

I found Dr. John Day online, whose information about reversing T2D, afib and high blood pressure saved my life. I cut out all carbs from pasta, bread, white rice and potatoes and ate as much high fat foods as i wished. Similar to the Atkins LCHF diet, my cholesterol and triglyceride levels dropped dramatically, even though i was eating more fatty food than ever. I dropped 60 lbs in 4 months and felt young again.

Still have high end of normal cholesterol and triglycerides, do light exercise 3-5 times/week, use metoprolol to keep heart rate slow, valsartan to keep blood pressure down, 2 cancer meds to prevent metastasis, have very little arthritis joint pain unless i'm on my feet too long, which goes away after sitting down for 5 mins.

I enjoy a baked potato or a bagel or spaghetti and meatballs maybe once a month, so everything in moderation, as they say. I keep my life simple, have a few good friends, want to strangle the entire generation X but all in all, God loves me. My parents and grand parents all died in their early 80s, so i figure i got about 7 more yrs. Til then, gonna do the best i can to share my experiences.

Take care and good luck, amigo.

Auriculaire
Auriculaire
in reply to RICH22

You too. We all need to be careful in these perilous times.

RICH22
RICH22
in reply to Auriculaire

How about people on this site who are offering opinions putting their professional qualifications to make those assumptions next to their submission. That will allow people, like me, to distinguish between the knowledgable and those armchair professional virologists who use social media sites too opine about things they know bugger all about. I'm happy to listen to the former and absolutely not waste my time on the latter. Perhaps the administrators of the site have a responsibility regarding this in what is a national crisis.

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odd, one reply to you got deleted, with all the comments to that reply getting deleted as well!! wow. wonder what scared the beejeezuz out of site admins here.

Yeah but these elderly and sick, probably had 10 more coexisting-conditions, and those were the main source of their vulnerability... eg lung cancer, heart disease etc etc etc

Charleneadmin
CharleneadminAdministrator

Dear all members of the AF Association Health Unlocked forum,

We do very much understand everyone's concerns regarding their conditions and the coronavirus/ Covid-19. We have been inundated with calls, emails and social media posts from worried patients and carers, and are spending a lot of our time dealing with these enquiries.

Please do not use this forum or any conversations on it to be mean or nasty to one another, particularly when at this time there is enough fear and uncertainty to deal with.

The admin for this page work for AF Association, a small charity who do our best to educate, inform, raise awareness and support those with arrhythmias including AF. When our time is taken up by mediating these posts, it means we are taken away from helping the people who need us most.

If you feel that you do want to talk more about coronavirus, there is a page on Health Unlocked to do so. Please also familiarise yourself with the forum rules of this page.

Please remember to be kind to one another and treat this forum in the same way.

Best wishes,

Charlene

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