AF Statistics

[sportscoach]

Are there any statistics available on how many people who register 0 on CHADS yet go on to have a stroke ?

[BobD Volunteer]

Not that I know of. There is little data on cause of strokes other than the 20% of all strokes are AF related and account for 80% of the least recoverable but this does not even look at the unexplained ones.

There have been a number of members here who fit that category, however, and who went on to have strokes which is why some of us think that AF should equal anticoagulation regardless. Getting GPs to prescribe anticoagulants at all is difficult sometimes.

[Hidden]

Yes, still an interesting question.

healthunlocked.com/afassoci...

Not sure how there could be an ethical, litigation free prospective trial in the face of the current guidelines. More likely in the US where there is less of a consensus on AC in AF.

nice pithy evidence statement below

nice.org.uk/guidance/cg180/...

[sportscoach]

Thank you Bob and Badger for your replies I posted a similar question around 10 months ago and wondered if the had been any progress or updates on the subject.

I asked a question of an EP sometime ago as to what he thought would be the developments in the treatment for AFib over the next 5 to 10 years he advised me in his opinion it would to be to develop a much more scientific test for stroke risk.

My CHADS score is 0 and I was advised by my EP I could leave off the warfarin however, I still have bouts of paroxysmal AF (Appt Feb to discuss a second ablation) so I have chosen to stay with the anticoagulant, only my personal view but with the lack of any real hard facts and figures the CHADS test does not instill me with confidence so I have elected to air on the cautious and continue with warfarin for the time being or until such time I can obtain more information to narrow the odds on stroke risk.

Many thanks to everyone on this site for their posts, replies and information its very informative on a condition that many people are still not aware of.

[secondtry]

I wish there were and on CHADS 0 plus no other comorbidities. I think you have taken the right decision though with bouts of AF and short term anticoags until stabilised is peace of mind with very little downside.

[JonathanPittsCrick]

According to the study by van den Ham et al (sciencedirect.com/science/a..., the stroke risk with a CHA₂DS₂-VASc score* of 0 is 0.38%, about 1 in 250, per year. The risk of a serious bleed from anticoagulation, even with no special risk factors, is at least 1% per year (chadsvasc.org), i.e. 2½ times higher, so it is not recommended.

*(this is the version most used currently)