Recurrence location probabilities post-RP

[ManuteBol1]

Hi All. I’m hoping someone here can help me. I’ve come across this presentation from Dr. Pete Carroll at UCSF that basically says the probability of the prostate bed being the site of recurrence is only about 15%.

youtu.be/8zxQ7kb22Yo(Not working as expected?)

On some other google searches, I’ve seen this number to be more like 80%, but those search results are just things like statements on a local urology office’s website like this:

santishealth.org/prostate-c...

The reason I’m having difficulty is that Dr, Carroll is reputable source. However, his YouTube presentation showed no citations, and I want to be sure that I’m not missing something, like not understanding the cohort. My gut tells me that 15% seems way too low (and that 80% is likely too high but closer to the answer than 15%.)

Has anyone here come across any papers that show the likelihood of recurrence in various locations post-RP? Thanks for the info.

[9020B]

It is logical to believe most recurrence after RP will be in the prostate bed. Here is the big question- is the recurrence confined to the prostate bed?The likelihood of micro metastasis beyond the prostate bed may be born out in the cure rates after salvage therapy.

[Tall_Allen]

Remember that imaging can only detect tumors that are≥ 5 mm in length. In mpMRI studies before PSMA PET scans, the site of the anastomosis and other sites in the prostate bed show up as major sites of failure:

bjui-journals.onlinelibrary...

ro-journal.biomedcentral.co...

Your profile does not show that you have a biochemical failure.

[Justfor_]

Realistic numbers from the video of a presentation by an Australian RO: Success rate of sRT, i.e. 5 year BCR freedom, 65% tops for low risk patients, dropping down to "30% if not 20% on high risk" (his exact words) leading to an average of 50%.