The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming - mostly a hopeful post

[Jm954]

Epidemiologist Larry Brilliant, who is now 75, has fought flu, polio, and blindness, warned of pandemic in 2006, says we can beat the novel coronavirus—but first, we need lots more testing.

More here: wired.com/story/coronavirus...

Jackie

[MyRoc]

Brilliant’s take on masks:

The N95 mask itself is extremely wonderful. The pores in the mask are three microns wide. The virus is one micron wide. So you get people who say, well, it's not going to work. But you try having three big, huge football players who are rushing for lunch through a door at lunchtime—they're not going to get through. In the latest data I saw, the mask provided 5x protection. That's really good. But we have to keep the hospitals going and we have to keep the health professionals able to come to work and be safe. So masks should go where they’re needed the most: in taking care of patients.

[AussieNeil Administrator in reply to MyRoc]

The virus is expelled within mucus and and saliva droplets from coughing and sneezing, NOT as free floating viruses. So paper masks theoretically should work quite well blocking you from breathing in those droplets with far more than one or even 3 free floating virus particles, by absorbing the droplets into the absorbent paper tissue. Incidentally, that's why you should discard and not reuse surgical masks. You don't want to risk breathing in the dried out virus particles.

Years ago I read and personally verified how we all emit a fine spray of droplets when we talk. They only travel about 30cm/1 foot before drifting to the floor/ground if there is no breeze. Anyone should be able to easily check this for themselves by shining the LED torch light from their phone camera in front of their face while talking in a dark room.

Neil

[MyRoc in reply to AussieNeil]

It’s bedtime here so just a quick note to say an enormous thank you to you, Neil. Such helpful info... and what a relief! I think I am going to sleep much better tonight than I would have otherwise.

[Justasheet1 in reply to AussieNeil]

Neil,

The problem with surgical masks are design and operator error.

They have gaps which let in air behind them even when properly applied but nonetheless I feel that they will offer us a good measure of protection short of walking into an elevator full of sneezing and coughing corona zombies 🧟‍♀️ 🧟‍♂️

Jeff

[AussieNeil Administrator in reply to Justasheet1]

I totally agree. Most people don't know how to property apply them. Medical personnel are trained in how to ensure a good fit to ensure breathed in air is filtered through the mask.

[Jonquiljo in reply to AussieNeil]

Link from small video from Singapore General Hospital on proper way to put on and take off an N95 mask (or respirator). It's not difficult.

youtube.com/watch?v=zoxpvDV...(Not working as expected?)

[Big_Dee in reply to Jonquiljo]

Hello Jonquiljo

I think that is great video, but I will not wear my hair like that just to position a mask.

[Sushibruno in reply to Justasheet1]

How do we cover our eyes? Because it can get in through your eyes also.

[Justasheet1 in reply to Sushibruno]

SB,

As long as you don’t touch them, have someone else touch them or someone coughs directly in your eyes at a close proximity all the doctors say that you’re reasonably safe.

It’s transmitted almost entirely through contact.

Just wash your hands when you get home and touch them all you want

Jeff

[Sushibruno in reply to Justasheet1]

Thank you Jeff

[virdieblue in reply to Sushibruno]

Advice from a nurse - wear glasses.

Virginia

[Sushibruno in reply to virdieblue]

I do wear them every day thank you very much😎

[Big_Dee in reply to Sushibruno]

Hello Sushibruno

Your eyes has this wonderful function of tears to keep your eyes moist. those tears are salty to protect your body from germs. Blessings.

[Sushibruno in reply to Big_Dee]

Thank you Big_Dee, wishing you well😎.

[MyRoc in reply to AussieNeil]

Oh dear... Fell down the rabbit hole researching how to make a good enough mask so am still wide awake... will post any interesting finds tomorrow...

[Big_Dee in reply to MyRoc]

Hello MyRoc

People made masks from toilet paper when they do not have masks, hence the run on toilet paper. Blessings.

[MyRoc in reply to Big_Dee]

Thank you for this, Dee. An artist friend is making some beautiful washable fabric masks.

She says: it has a wire across the nose and you slide liners inside. The liners are non woven eg. Tissues, toilet paper or serviettes. Then when you’re home you throw the liners away and wash the mask.

She is using this pattern and adds that the non woven fabric apparently blocks germs more than woven fabric does.

mustsharenews.com/cloth-fac...

[Big_Dee in reply to MyRoc]

Hello MyRoc

Yes the random pattern of toilet paper acts as a better filter. Blessings.

[Lenny123 in reply to MyRoc]

masks for all, a no brianer, mostly to protect public from the asymptomatic persons, who transmit 4/5 of new cases.

Personally am getting resigned to getting transparent face shields, using them in public, along with some sort of mask, for next 1 year, at least.

[giuliano in reply to MyRoc]

smartairfilters.com/en/blog...

[Beattiem-UK]

Thanks Jackie. I hope Boris reads it.

[Justasheet1]

Jackie,

I’ve been telling my wife for days the same thing. We need to slow down the spread till the antivirals lessen the severity and a vaccine is discovered.

Until then, we need to stay away until this runs it’s course through the 90+% of our population. They will get sick, recover and then take care of us.

Imagine a hospital totally staffed by medical staff who have recovered and the only people they care for have tested positive. No need for isolation.

We will recover from this but it’s going to be hard on the at risk for awhile.

Thanks for that intuitive and encouraging and intelligent article.

Jeff

[cyclist123]

David Ho (in the US) makes sense also.

youtube.com/watch?v=2B-rYVW...(Not working as expected?)

[wizzard166]

JM that is a fabulous article. It provides even more insight into what is likely to happen, and how long this is likely to affect our normal lives. Interesting he says that the devastating financial loss to society could be considered greater than the amount of deaths. I've been feeling the pain of the unseen thousands of people living in communities close to mine, who have no one to back them up and who now have no income and no savings. Closing all of these restaurants and small businesses will likely save a relatively small amount of lives, but it will completely devastate and cause immense suffering in hundreds of percent more people who continue to live. Interesting perspective.

[Gogldn]

I feel the need to reply to Mr Brilliant’s statement ThT the President Trump in the early days of the coronavirus as a “hoax brought on by the Democratic Party”.

The actual statement During a Feb. 28, 2020, campaign rally in South Carolina, President Donald Trump likened the Democrats' criticism of his administration's response to the new coronavirus outbreak to their efforts to impeach him, saying "this is their new hoax." During the speech he also seemed to downplay the severity of the outbreak, comparing it to the common flu.

What's False

Despite creating some confusion with his remarks, Trump did not call the coronavirus itself a hoax.

I’m sorry for putting this in this forum but this is how misinterpretation of reports can cause more agitation. This epidemiologist is very educated and has been through other serious outbreaks is considered very knowledgeable and highly respected. But Mr. Briiiant needs to get his facts straight.