None of us know where this is going. ... - British Heart Fou...

British Heart Foundation

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None of us know where this is going. Nontheless this is interesting

15 Replies

PERSPECTIVE (MAYBE)?

FROM FULLFACT:

The WHO estimates that between 290,000 and 650,000 respiratory deaths globally each year are associated with seasonal influenza.

Public Health England estimates that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely¾from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19. Public Health England does not publish a mortality rate for the flu. FROM FULLFACT.

The number of confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths is changing quickly. At the time of writing on Wednesday March 11, there were over 120,000 confirmed cases globally and over 4,300 deaths. In the UK, 456 people have tested positive and six have died.

fullfact.org/health/coronav...

CURRENT FIGURES FOR CORONA VIRUS:

(Worldometer)

UK ITALY UK ITALY

CASES CASES DEATHS DEATHS

5,018 53,578 233 4,825

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15 Replies
Amikatari profile image
Amikatari

Well, I've every respect for FullFact and their figures re. the UK *were* true - 11 days ago, when the article was written.

But over those 11 days, the diagnosed cases in the UK have risen to over 5k, with over 1k being diagnosed during the last day:

news.sky.com/story/coronavi...

And with the recorded death toll in the UK (which excludes those whose cause of death was simply put down to old age), rising over 11 days from 6 to 233 and counting, perhaps FullFact were misjudging the situation when they wrote the article you've linked, if they were suggesting that things perhaps wasn't as bad as they seemed.

(Edited to add a few 'in the UK' phrases, for clarity)

Shoshov profile image
Shoshov

my thoughts too??

Sunnie2day profile image
Sunnie2day

'Influenza kills more annually...'

But - THIS IS NOT FLU, IT'S 'novel coronavirus' ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) and 'flu' does not kill 50+per day, and certainly not double-digit deaths IN ONE HOSPITAL ALONE IN ONE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

Full disclosure - my late husband was a consultant neurosurgeon and I keep in touch with several of his former colleagues and their spouses/partners. Some are neurosurgeons, some are cardiologists, some are GPs...

I will not say where but last night I got an email from one of the spouses who told me her husband came home yesterday for a change of clothes and a shower and while he was showering he told her the unvarnished truth of just how bad this all is. She said he told her in 'too-great detail' just how someone dies of this virus and she said his description made her think a quick bullet to the head would be better than dying that way.

This is NOT flu.

in reply to Sunnie2day

It must be horrifying to be on the front line. My daughter is potentially going to be on the front line, so I do not take this lightly as suggested and want to believe we can beat this so I can keep my family. This is flu - just a horrendous version on a spectrum of coronavirus - just as is the common cold.

Lezzers profile image
Lezzers in reply to

Is your first graphic sentence necessary? It's neither supportive nor helpful. Please remember that there are a number of scared & vulnerable people in the forum, hopefully you'll remove the comment.

Sunnie2day profile image
Sunnie2day in reply to Lezzers

By the time I got here this morning the post had been edited - from Heythrops's and your replies, it is a good thing it was edited.

Please let me know if you feel my comment (especially the last sentence) should be edited.

Lezzers profile image
Lezzers in reply to Sunnie2day

No you're OK Sunnie. The removed comment was a graphic discription of how people will die. People don't need to know details, it really distressed me and would no doubt have distressed others.

Its pretty obvious that there are a lot of scared & vulnerable people around, we all need to be aware of what we're posting and not sensationalise, we've got the newspapers for that!!

Sunnie2day profile image
Sunnie2day in reply to Lezzers

Thank-you:) And oh how I agree about the press coverage!

fergusthegreat profile image
fergusthegreat in reply to Lezzers

Yes the graphic sentence is necessary and so are the videos from hospital wards showing the true horror of coronavirus.

It's only when people realise just how bad this is that they will start taking the measures put in place to reduce the spread of the disease seriously.

Whilst people continue to think about coronavirus as just another flu, social distancing will continue to be ignored, the disease will spread and more and more will die.

Lezzers profile image
Lezzers in reply to fergusthegreat

Sorry, but people to not need to know about other people's dying moments. We all know the virus can kill, its all over the media, this forum is for advice & support not to distress!

Sensitivity is required & obviously the OP has agreed as the comment has been removed!

Heythrop51 profile image
Heythrop51 in reply to

I am not sure what you are trying to achieve? Some of what you say comes over as supportive buy the rest seems aimed to cause further concern amongst worried individuals. There was a post about stress yesterday and to be kind I will put your posts down as a reaction to this!

Sunnie2day profile image
Sunnie2day in reply to Heythrop51

Please let me know if you've found my comment to JR55 inappropriate - I was reacting to the OP and had just received a deeply sad email from a friend reporting her husband's front-line experience.

Sunnie2day profile image
Sunnie2day in reply to

Coronavirus of any virulence is not influenza, end of.

I am sorry if I appeared to suggest this was not serious I am fully aware it is and I am in the higher at risk category as many on here will be. I see the figures I tried to post have appeared jumbled, and therefore makes what I was trying to say unclear.

I also know that viruses are unpredicatable and likely that comparisons are odious - but that is what I tried to do (where the numbers etc are jumbled).

So both Italy and UK reported their known cases (2) on 31st January. And while it is no guarantee our numbers will stay low in comparison the latest know figures (21.3.20) for UK: Cases 3,983, Italy 47,021. deaths in UK (same date) - 177, and deaths in Italy 4,032.

Italy (yesterday) had almost 12 times the number of cases, and almost 23 times more deaths than the UK.

Factors to consider : we have no idea of how accurate either Italy or UK figures are (or any country's figures come to that). Each countries behavourial patterns and subsequent adherence to advice is known and seen to be different. Scientists extrapolated infection mutiplyer figures have varied from x10 and x50 (USA) and x1000 (UK BBC announced) - but all infection rates will depend on isolation, distancing and hygiene and of course removing

factors that transmit from animals to humans - controlling human interaction with wild animals.

As for Coronavirus not being flu - well in a sense it is but a very serious one. The name itself just refers to the virus shape which appears also in the common cold. It is a spectrum. We now know that zoonotic viruses can pass from animals to people, once we did not believe this was possible. The world of the microbe will continue to outmarch man's capabilities but

hopefully we won't see another one of these for a while.

I have been self isolating with my husband since November after bypass and contracting pneumonia while in hospital (which I am now thinking may well have been this novel virus).

This link is quite informative: ecdc.europa.eu/en/factsheet...

Done

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